What is behind the lack of unity on the EU sanctions towards Russia? Sofia Wallberg 2015 Abstract The research investigate the Visegrad countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) cohesion problem finding a joint position on the EU sanctions against Russia by answering the question: What is behind the Visegrad Groups different positions and lack of unity on the EU sanctions towards Russia?. To identify what is behind the Visegrad Groups different positions the theory spring from Putnam’s two-level game theory and will focus on Tsebelis Nested game theory. The two theory´s together enable to map out the Visegrad countries different games nested in an arena dynamics consisting of the three different arenas: the domestic arena, the supranational arena and the international arena. To be able to explain the V4 countries' divided positions, this research will use five different hypotheses, which will function as explanatory factors trying to describe what is behind each of the V4 countries taken position on the EU sanctions against Russia. The result of the research show that the countries positions and decisions on the three arenas, from their point of view, can be explained as rational choices and strategically decisions taken in the nested game surrounding the sanction war against Russia. Due to the fact that each of the V4 countries act rational to maximize their goal achievement, a coherence problem occur, which makes it hard for the V4 countries to reach an agreement on the “level 3” sanctions. Key words: Ukraine crises, Visegrad countries, Sanctions policy, European Union cooperation Words: 19 976 Abbreviations EU European Union V4 Visegrad Group NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization Definitions EU sanctions – “also referred to as restrictive measures – against third countries, individuals or entities, are an essential EU foreign policy tool that it uses to pursue objectives in accordance with the principles of common Foreign and Security Policy”.1 Economic sanctions - can be divided into trade sanctions and financial penalties. Trade sanctions meaning blocking the import and export of goods to and from a state and financial sanctions related to the freezing of financial assets and banning money transfers, gifts and credit.2 ”Level 1” sanctions - consist of diplomatic sanctions. “The diplomatic sanctions adopted by the EU included the unilateral suspension of visa facilitation talks, negotiations on the New Agreement, and the upcoming EU-Russia summit”.3 ”Level 2” sanctions - consist of restrictive measures: ”visa bans, asset freezes and political wrist-slapping. The latter includes suspending G8 meetings, halting formal bilateral summits and stopping negotiations on Russia’s membership of the OECD, a rich-world think-tank, and the International Energy Agency.”4 ”Level 3” sanctions - consist of economic sanctions that target entire economic sectors such as defence or energy, and which could do more damage to Russia´s economy but could potentially also damage Western Europe´s industries5 and furthermore comprising unspecified `far-reaching consequences for relations on a broad range of economic areas´.6 1 European Union External Action, 2015 2 Statens offentliga utredningar, 2006: 38 3 Blockmans, Steven, 2014 4 Charlemagne, 2014 5 Dalton, Meichtry, Thomas, 2014 6 Charlemagne, 2014 Table of contents st 1 The EU faced with a severe thereat to European security in the 21 1 century ............................................................................................................................. 1.1 Research question and aim ................................................................................... 2 1.2 Delimitations ........................................................................................................ 3 1.2.1 Choice of case ............................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 Selection of countries .................................................................................... 3 1.2.3 The Visegrad Group ...................................................................................... 4 1.2.4 The Visegrad countries position towards “level 3” sanctions ...................... 4 1.2.5 Time delimitation .......................................................................................... 5 1.3 Outline of the study .............................................................................................. 5 2 Background ............................................................................................................... 6 2.1 The Ukraine conflict ............................................................................................ 6 2.2 EU sanctions against Russia ................................................................................ 7 2.3 Russian retaliatory measures ................................................................................ 8 3 Method and Material .............................................................................................. 10 3.1.1 Research Design ......................................................................................... 10 3.1.2 Material ....................................................................................................... 10 3.1.3 Existing literature ........................................................................................ 11 3.1.4 Contribution to existing literature ............................................................... 11 4 The two-level game and the three-level game ....................................................... 12 4.1 Putnam’s theory of two-level games .................................................................. 12 4.2 Tsebelis Nested Games theory ........................................................................... 13 4.3 Interpretation of the theories .............................................................................. 14 4.3.1 Model of the three-level game .................................................................... 15 4.3.2 Explanation of the Hypothesis .................................................................... 16 4.3.3 Operationalization ....................................................................................... 17 4.3.4 The model of the linkage between arena dynamics and the six different hypothesis ................................................................................................. 18 4.3.5 Theoretical assumptions ............................................................................. 19 5 The explanation to the Visegrad countries positions ........................................... 20 5.1 Domestic political ambitions ............................................................................. 20 5.1.1 Poland ......................................................................................................... 20 5.1.2 The Czech Republic .................................................................................... 22 5.1.3 Slovakia ...................................................................................................... 23 5.1.4 Hungary ...................................................................................................... 25 5.2 Business interests ............................................................................................... 27 5.2.1 Poland ......................................................................................................... 28 5.2.2 The Czech Republic .................................................................................... 29 5.2.3 Slovakia ...................................................................................................... 30 5.2.4 Hungary ...................................................................................................... 31 5.3 Geopolitical concerns ........................................................................................ 33 5.3.1 Poland ......................................................................................................... 34 5.3.2 The Czech Republic .................................................................................... 35 5.3.3 Slovakia ...................................................................................................... 36 5.3.4 Hungary ...................................................................................................... 36 5.4 The Visegrad countries EU cooperation ............................................................ 36 5.4.1 Poland ......................................................................................................... 37 5.4.2 The Czech Republic .................................................................................... 38 5.4.3 Slovakia ...................................................................................................... 39 5.4.4 Hungary ...................................................................................................... 40 5.5 External cooperation with non-EU countries .................................................... 41 5.5.1 Poland ......................................................................................................... 41 5.5.2 The Czech Republic .................................................................................... 43 5.5.3 Slovakia ...................................................................................................... 44 5.5.4 Hungary .....................................................................................................