LOCAL ELECTION BENCHMARKS LEWIS BASTON 4 May 2006 LABOUR Councillors London Councils to watch boroughs -200 or 13 or better Croydon – can Labour manage an Good better improbable hold in this marginal borough? (doing better Lambeth – could Labour snatch a than 2 years gain from NOC? ago) -300 or so 10 or so (5 Barnsley – long a Labour stronghold OK losses) but left on the brink by bad results in 2004. Will it go NOC this time? (about as bad Sheffield – can Labour hold off the as 2004) Lib Dems in this close-fought city? Brent – Labour under attack from Lib Dems and Tories. -450 or so 8 or so (7 Camden – will a well-run Labour Bad losses) council be swept away by the national tide? (but still Blackburn & Darwen – an recoverable) embarrassing loss in Jack Straw’s constituency? Hackney – volatile inner city politics despite Labour’s large majority in 2002. -550 or 5 or worse Lewisham – a model borough that Disastrous worse would go in a meltdown. Ealing – once marginal, now Labour (1968 or 1977 barring a disaster. style wipe-out Manchester – it would take massive – panic losses for Labour to cede control in stations) one of the few big cities it still controls. CONSERVATIVE Councillors London Councils to watch boroughs +400 or 14 or more Sutton – under Lib Dem control Good better since 1986 but Tories challenging Bury – marginal Greater Manchester (Cameron has borough – Conservatives would do lifted the well to gain outright control from Tories out of Labour their trough) Birmingham – Conservatives aspire to be largest single party in Britain’s second city +250 or so 12 or so Merton – a marginal south London OK borough where Labour will probably lose control, but the Tories are not (Par for the certain of a win course, solid Manchester – can they win a progress) toehold in the Brooklands ward of this Tory free zone? Ipswich – should be a Conservative gain for first time since 1976 +100 or so 9 or so Solihull – having lost an MP here in Bad 2005 the Conservatives will try to fend off the Lib Dems (Cameron’s Richmond – Conservative council critics will be vulnerable to Lib Dems emboldened) Coventry – this Midlands Tory flagship should not sink unless they poll badly Net losses 7 or fewer Barnet – a controversial Tory Disastrous council might lose control Harrow – Conservatives just short of (If the Tories control in 2002 in this suburban can’t win now, borough and should win now can they ever?) Thurrock – an Essex council surprisingly won in 2004. Can the Tories hold on? LIB DEMS Councillors London Councils to watch boroughs +300 or 14 or more Lewisham – probably their hardest Good better realistic London target Haringey – a tough target to win (Go back to from Labour your Oldham – Labour have recently had constituencies the upper hand in this marginal …) borough Rochdale – LDs won the seat in 2005, can they win the council? +150 or so 12 or so Portsmouth – already under OK minority control, should win outright (Par for the Southwark – Lib Dems hoping for course, solid majority control in borough progress) represented by Tessa Jowell, Harriet Harman and Simon Hughes Lambeth – another South Bank target for overall control St. Helens – hoping to deprive Labour of control in this gritty town represented by Shaun Woodward Cheltenham – always marginal between Lib Dem and Tory – both can hope for a gain +100 or so 5 Richmond – if the Conservatives Bad retain control, MPs Vince Cable and Susan Kramer should be worried (Losing out to Bristol – the Lib Dems should win Cameron’s control this year, another hung Tories and/or council would disappoint them Labour Winchester – will Mark Oaten’s resilience) problems see the minority Lib Dem council fall to the Tories? Net losses 4 or fewer Kingston – high council tax rises in a Disastrous marginal Lib Dem suburban borough Stockport – Cameron eating away at (Leadership Lib Dem suburban strength if they issue may be lose control reopened) .