This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 691287 EU Framework Program for Research and Innovation actions (H2020 LCE-21-2015) Project Nr: 691287 Guiding European Policy toward a low-carbon economy. Modelling sustainable Energy system Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraints D6.3 (D21) Transition Challenges Version 4 Due date of deliverable: 23/09/2019 Actual submission date: 27/09/2019 Disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liabilities This document has been prepared by MEDEAS project partners as an account of work carried out within the framework of the EC-GA contract no 691287. The information and views set out in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Neither the European Union institutions and bodies nor any person acting on their behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. 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Pg. Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37-49 08003 Barcelona www.medeas.eu [email protected] T +34 93 230 95 00 F +34 93 230 95 55 2 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 691287 Document info sheet Lead Beneficiary: ARU WP: WP6 Impacts Task: Task 6.3 Challenges in Transition Authors: Kat Buchmann (ARU), Aled Jones (ARU), Johanna Schönecker (ARU), Yiyun Zhang (ARU), Nick King (ARU), Paul Stricker (ARU), Rebecca Spannenkrebs (ARU), Jordi Solé Ollé (CSIC), Roger Samsó (CSIC), Teresa Madurell (CSIC) Dissemination level : Public Pg. Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37-49 08003 Barcelona www.medeas.eu [email protected] T +34 93 230 95 00 F +34 93 230 95 55 3 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 691287 Table of contents DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITIES .................................................. 2 DOCUMENT INFO SHEET ............................................................................................................ 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................. 4 SCOPE OF DOCUMENT (ABSTRACT IN DELIVERABLES) ................................................................ 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... 9 1. INTRODUCTION TO DELIVERABLE ......................................................................................... 16 2. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION .......................................................................................... 17 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................ 17 2.1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2. CHANGES IN ENERGY DEMAND .......................................................................................................................................... 20 2.3. CHANGES IN ENERGY SUPPLY............................................................................................................................................. 25 2.2.1 Effects of climate change on wind power ......................................................................................................... 26 2.2.2. Effects of climate change on solar power ........................................................................................................ 34 2.2.3. Effects of climate change on hydroelectric power ....................................................................................... 40 2.2.4. Effects of climate change on biofuel .................................................................................................................. 47 2.2.5. Effects of climate change on oil and gas .......................................................................................................... 53 2.2.6. Effects of climate change on coal mining ........................................................................................................ 58 2.2.7. Issues of permafrost thawing and energy infrastructure.......................................................................... 63 2.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR MEDEAS ............................................................................................................................................ 68 2.4. REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................................................... 69 3. RESOURCE SCARCITY ISSUES AND RES TRANSITION .............................................................. 73 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................ 73 3.1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................................... 74 3.2. ENERGY TRENDS ................................................................................................................................................................... 75 3.2.1. Fossil fuels .................................................................................................................................................................... 75 3.2.2. Nuclear .......................................................................................................................................................................... 81 3.2.3. Renewables .................................................................................................................................................................. 83 3.2.4. Implications for MEDEAS ....................................................................................................................................... 85 3.3. RARE EARTH ELEMENTS AND METALS ............................................................................................................................ 87 3.3.1. Demand for Rare Earth Elements and Metals ............................................................................................... 87 3.3.2 Supply of Rare Earth Elements ............................................................................................................................. 98 3.3.3. Implications for MEDEAS .................................................................................................................................... 110 3.4. REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................................................ 112 Pg. Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37-49 08003 Barcelona www.medeas.eu [email protected] T +34 93 230 95 00 F +34 93 230 95 55 4 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 691287 4. FINANCING CROSS-BORDER ELECTRICITY INFRA-STRUCTURE REQUIRED FOR RES TRANSITION ..............................................................................................................................................117 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................................. 117 4.1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................................... 120 4.2. PROJECTS OF COMMON INTEREST (PCIS) ..................................................................................................................... 121 4.3. AMOUNT OF FUNDING NEEDED ........................................................................................................................................ 123 4.4 WHERE IS GRID REINFORCEMENT NEEDED? .................................................................................................................. 126 4.5. CAUSES OF INVESTMENT GAP ..........................................................................................................................................