LEVERAGING LEGITIMACY IN SECURING U.S. LEADERSHIP NORMATIVE DIMENSIONS OF HEGEMONIC AUTHORITY ADissertation submittedtotheFacultyofthe GraduateSchoolofArtsandSciences ofGeorgetownUniversity inpartialfulfillmentoftherequirementsforthe degreeof DoctorofPhilosophy inGovernment By AndrewJosephLoomis,M.I.A. Washington,DC August4,2008 IamindebtedtoDr.AndrewBennettforhispersistenceinhelpingtoseethis projectthroughtocompletion.Dr.Bennettwasasteadysourceofenlighteninginsights, politicalcommentary,andintellectualencouragementateverystageofmyacademiclifeat Georgetown.Ihavereliedextensivelyonhisdeepknowledgeofboththeacademicand policydimensionsofU.S.foreignpolicyandrelatedthemes,aswellashismasteryof qualitativemethodology.Thisfinalproductwasimmeasurablyimprovedasaresultofhis timeandattention. Iamdeeplygratefulforthecontributionsthateachofmycommitteemembersmade tothisproject.IcouldnothaveaskedformoreastuteobserveroftheU.S.andEuropean politicalscenesthanDr.CharlesKupchan,whoprovidedcriticalcorrectivestomyanalysis alongtheway.Dr.ChristopherJoynerprovidedabreadthofknowledgeoninternational lawthatgreatlyimprovedmyanalysisofthelegalmattersrelatedtothisproject,andhis senseofhumorhelpedtoestablishanatmosphereoflevityinmyacademicexperienceand rescuemefromexcessiveseriousness.IhavelongconsideredtheworkofDr.RichardFalk tobeamodelofsophisticatedanalysispresentedthroughthelensofasupremelyhumane worldview,andIhavebenefitedenormouslyfromhislegalandnormativeinsightsandhis propheticvoice,bothinthisprojectandinmyemergingperspectiveonworldpolitics. Inadditiontotheintellectualacuityofeachofmycommitteemembers’observations oninternationalpolitics,eachhaveconsistentlyexpressedacommitmenttoapplyingtheir insightstothepracticalformulationofU.S.foreignpolicy.Iamparticularlygratefuloftheir encouragementtocontinuetoexploretheapplicationsofthisstudytoboththeacademic andpoliticaldimensionsofU.S.foreignpolicymaking. Iammostgratefultomywife,JennyRussell,forherenduringsupport.Jennywasa steadysourceofconfidenceandencouragementinthedarkesthoursofthisproject,and alwaysreadytoprovideanintellectualoutletwhenIwasindesperateneedfordistraction.I nowunderstandthesentimentexpressedbyauthor’satthisstageintheirwritingwhenthey professthattheirworkcouldnothavebeenaccomplishedwithoutthestrengthoftheir spouse.Thishasneverbeenmoretruethaninmycase,andJenny’sinsights,love,and commonsensehavebeenasteadywindatmyback.Iamgratefulaswelltothesupportof ourdaughterOlivia,whosufferedinherownwayasaresultofthedistractionscausedby thisprojectbutwasawellspringofgreathumorandpleasure,andtoJackson,whoarrived midstreamandwasalwaysquickwithhischaracteristicradiancetohelpmecarryonday afterday. ii Copyright2008byAndrewJosephLoomis AllRightsReserved iii LEVERAGING LEGITIMACY IN SECURING U.S. LEADERSHIP NORMATIVE DIMENSIONS OF HEGEMONIC AUTHORITY Andrew Joseph Loomis, M.I.A. Thesis Advisor: Andrew Bennett, Ph.D. ABSTRACT Theunpleasantdiplomaticexperienceprecedingthe2003IraqWargenerateddeep resentmentsbetweentheUnitedStatesandmanyofitsclosestEuropeanallies.Yetwhilea descriptiveaccountofthistraumahasbeencoveredinthepopularpress,athorough explanationhasnotbeenadvancedintheacademicliteratureofthefactorsthatproduced thispatternofdefiancebytraditionalU.S.allies.Thisdissertationinvestigatesthevariables thatgenerateddiminishedauthorityoftheUnitedStateswithrespecttoitsEuropeanallies andfindsthataparticularformofpublicopinion—specifically,thepublicperceptionofthe legitimacyofU.S.foreignpolicy—playedacriticalcausalroleinshapingthesubstanceand timingofreactionstoU.S.requestsinthisuse-of-forcecontext.Thisfindingistested againsttwoadditionalepisodes—the1991GulfWarandthe1999KosovoCrisis. ThequestionofU.S.authoritydeficitssitsinthebroaderterrainofthestudyofthe relationshipbetweenlegitimacyandauthority.Thisdissertationfocusesonthepublic dimensionoflegitimacyperceptionsanddevelopsametricofinternationalauthority,which hasbeenimpreciselyspecifiedintheinternationalrelationsliterature.Theprojectthentests thespecificwayinwhichtheviolationoflegitimacynorms—specificallynormsestablishing thepermissibleuseofforce—degradesauthoritylevels.Thefindingssuggestthatthe UnitedStatesunderminesitsowncapacitytowieldinfluencewithitsallieswhenitrejects constraintsonitsownbehavior. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1 Introduction 1 2 The Legitimacy Concept 42 3 The Politics of Hegemonic Authority 100 4 Iraq, Threat Perceptions, and Diverging U.S. and European Narratives 163 5 The 1991 Gulf War, the Consolidation of Europe, and the New World Order 258 6 The Kosovo Crisis, the Rise of Europe, and NATOs New Role 367 7 Conclusion 474 Bibliography 494 v Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION Thisprojectbeginswithapoliticaldramasetinanothertime,adiplomaticstorythat unfoldedundercircumstancesinwhichlegitimacynormsdefiningtheouterboundariesof thepermissibleuseofforcewerelessrigidthantheyaretoday. IntheWest’sanxiousattempttoforestallaresurgenceofviolenceintheinter-war period,thediplomaticrecordrevealsthatWesternleaders,confrontedwiththegrowing Germanappetiteforterritory,sacrificedtheprincipleofsovereignrightsonthealtarof powerpolitics.GeorgeKennan’saccountofthedispatchesfromPragueimmediately followingthedisastrous1938MunichagreementforgedbyBritishandGermanofficials revealstheeasewithwhichEuropeanofficialsdeferredtotheprudenceofimmediateself- interest,bargainingawaythesovereigntyrightsofEasternEuropeans.Inhiscommentary, Kennan’scharacteristicinsightfulnessexaminesthemindofHitlerashecalculatedhisearly movesineliminatingpotentialresistancepointsonGermany’seasternfront.Hitler’s plotting—infact,Hitler’sworldview(aswellasKennan’sanalysis)—isastrikingreminderof howdifferenttheinternationalenvironmentwasin1938comparedtotoday,includingthe legitimacynormsthatconstitutedthatenvironment. AccordingtoKennan’sdissectionofthehistoricalrecord,Hitlerinitiallyhad reservationsthatGermanoccupationofCzechoslovakiabeyondthe“HistoricProvinces”of BohemiaandMoraviagrantedtoGermanyatMunichwouldinvigorateWesternEuropean resistanceandriskaSlovakianreunionwithHungaryorannexationbyHungaryandPoland. Hitlersoondiscovered,however,thatBritishandFrenchweaknessandSlovakian 1 permissivenesstowardFascistGermanygavehimafreerhandthanheexpectedwithregards tooccupyingCzechoslovakia.Thisalteredpicturedencouragedhimtopromptlydevelopa strategyforengorgingtheentirecountry.Kennanwrote,“Hitlerlostnotimeinlayinghis plansfortheearlydestructionoftherumpCzechoslovakiatotheexistenceofwhichhehad justagreed.” 1 Hitler’scalculationsrevealhisperceptionthatapoliticalstrategyinvolvingterritorial expansionintoEasternEuroperestedsolelyonthebasisofmilitarycapabilitiesandstrategic necessity.Hebetrayednoconcernaboutconstraintsofforeigninterpretationof internationalnorms,unifiedinternationaloppositionconvergingonnormativeorlegal aberrance,ordomesticpublicoutrage.Theinternationalrulesdefiningpermissible extraterritorialbehaviorwereinsufficientlyformedin1938toserveasarallyingcryforthe generationofameaningfulopposition.Therewerefewdocumentsdesignatingjointly agreedstandardsofpermissibleusesofforce,littlepublicunrestover“illegitimate”German floutingofinternational“rules”,andnogreatpowerswillingtosacrificelivesandtreasure forthesakeofcommonprinciples(sincecommonprinciples,infact,wereanabstraction). Hitlercorrectlycalculatedthatmilitarycapabilities—andeconomichealthtoequipthose capabilities—wereallhehadtoconsider.Thus,materialpowertrulywasthefinalarbiterin whetherGermanycouldhaveitsway.ItispreciselythiscontextonwhichE.H.Carr groundedRealistinternationalrelationstheory,deconstructing“Utopian”grandstrategyin theprocess. 1GeorgeFrostKennanandUnitedStates.Legation(Czechoslovakia), FromPragueafterMunich:Diplomatic Papers,1938-1940 (Princeton,N.J.:PrincetonUniversityPress,1968). 2 Inthecontemporaryinternationalenvironment,however,acountry’sannexationor occupationofanotherstateorregionofstrategicimportancewillbevigorouslycontested fromseveraldirections,sparkingawitheringdiplomaticresponseandthethreatofpunitive measures.Leadersoperatewithinamorerestrictedrangeofacceptablebehaviorcompared tothatwhichexisted70yearsago.Thecommonfactorthatexplainstheunifiedresistance totheIraqiinvasionofKuwaitin1990,EuropeancondemnationoflargescaleSerbviolence againstKosovo’sAlbanians,andinternationaloutrageofU.S.interventioninIraqin2003is thatthenormsdefiningacceptablebehaviorwereviolated.WhenHitlerplannedhis invasionofCzechoslovakia,establishedrulesprohibitingterritorialaggrandizementwere underdeveloped,inhibitingacommonpublicreactionnecessarytogenerateacommon Westernresponse.Militarycapabilitieswereallhehadtoconcernhimselfwith,justasCarr imagined.Thisdissertationteststheextenttowhichthissamelogicstillapplies. The Puzzle and Argument JudgingfromthereactiontotheU.S.invasionofIraqlaunchedin2003,itisevident thatarevisedformulationoflegitimateinternationalbehaviorisbeingexpressedbythe academicandpoliticalcommentariat.ComparedtothecaseofGermany’sbehaviorinthe late1930s,newstandardsofbehaviorareinoperation.Onequestiondeservingincreased attention,however,iswhetherviolationsofthosestandardshaveanyeffect. AfrequentlyleveledcriticismisthatU.S.foreignpolicyundertheBush AdministrationhasseriouslydamagedAmerica’sstandingintheworld.Thishashadthe unfortunateeffect,theargumentproceeds,ofimpairingtheUnitedStates’abilitytoleadits 3 alliesincriticalstrategicpolicycoordination.Emblematicofthisclaim,CharlesKupchan argues,“Washington'sswaggeringbrandofgloballeadershipanditsdismissiveattitude towardinternationalinstitutionshavesucceededinalienatingmuchoftheworldand strainingtothebreakingpointmanyofAmerica'skeypartnerships…Americaseemswellon