Aras River Riparian Corridor: Ecological Characterization and Potential Threats Associated with Hydrological Impediments in Turkey A report to Kuzey Doga May 2014 PIRatE Report # 14-02 Sean Anderson Kuzey Doga Dernegi Kars, Kars Province, Turkiye (Turkey) & Environmental Science and Resource Management Program California State University Channel Islands Camarillo, California, USA [email protected] 1 Acknowledgments Most of the substantial amount of field labor and data collection required for this project was provided by a suite of dedicated field scientists, without whose contributions assessment would have been impossible. For their past and continuing contributions to the monitoring and conservation of ecosystems across Turkey, I thank: Ms. Lale Aktay Mr. Onder Cirik Mr. Emrah Coban Mr. Yakup Sasmaz ...and the entire Fall 2013 Aras Station Banding Crew. 2 Executive Summary The Lower Aras River Corridor (40.117°N, 43.615°W) in the extreme southeastern corridor of Turkey is an area of rare, remnant high biodiversity that in turn provides essential ecosystem services to this region of Turkey. These services will likely be severely reduced or completely eliminated should the proposed Tuzluca Dam be erected immediately westward of the Aras-Kars River confluence (i.e. ~0.5 km westward of the Armenian Boarder). All riparian plants and animals currently residing in this comparatively robust riparian region will be eliminated by inundation from at least tens of meters (and possibly hundreds of meters in some locales) of impounded water behind this government-proposed, financed, and constructed dam. At least three villages and their associated agricultural landscapes will also be eliminated under the waters of the proposed reservoir stretching many kilometers westward of the proposed dam. A minimum of 6,500 fruit (apricot, apple, etc.) and 18,000 other (elm, aspen, etc.) mature trees (>10 years old and/or >9 m tall) would be drowned in the immediate vicinity of the exiting riverbed. Perhaps three times that many will be killed ultimately, depending upon ensuing water levels. Younger trees/woody shrubs lost would easily exceed >60,000 individuals. Initial surveys of the soil/landscape of the particular upland areas which would become the de-facto start of the new riparian/lacustrine zone under the elevated waterline leave little hope that anything like the existing vegetation could ever exist there in the foreseeable future (e.g. within the next 75 years). These currently devegetated hillside regions above the existing vegetated riparian regions harbor soil with a mean sediment particle size much larger (i.e. sandier) and saltier than existing riparian soils and so offers little hope of retaining nutrients and organic matter necessary for the growth of healthy riparian vegetation. As the exiting vegetation disappears, so will the associated vertebrate and invertebrate fauna. We should expect to see a vastly reduced diversity and abundance of animals of all stripes. While the absolute number of mobile terrestrial organisms is harder to quantify than sessile woody vegetation, we can easily expect a 75% reduction, and likely >90% reduction in most terrestrial vertebrates (save European jackals, Canis aureus moreoticus) outside of actively managed domestic species. Invertebrates appear to be even more tightly associated with riparian vegetation and are likely to be reduced by >90% (both individuals and biomass), with several riparian-associated groups (e.g. odonates, lepidoptera) effectively driven locally ecologically extinct and often undesirable species increasing (e.g. Culicids) becoming more dominant. Lastly, we can expect severe disruptions to the human community along this stretch of river with at least three villages disappearing. Extensive interviews in villages upstream that have been affected by similar impoundments show that villagers who choose to leave and take a ministry proffered buyout view the loss of their homesteads as a net loss and >3 years post displacement view their 3 circumstances as worse off. Proffered government-built housing differs in quality and quantity from traditional village life, often without adequate space for livestock and other essential aspects of traditional Turkish rural life. Villagers who remained post dam construction report significant social disruption including spikes in domestic violence, inter- and intra-household conflicts, vastly reduced income potential, increased despondency over long-term fiscal prospects, greater likelihood of personal bankruptcy, increased likelihood for younger members to move away/to regional urban centers, and heightened levels of overall dissatisfaction/depression with life in general. In summary, impacts of the proposed Lower Aras River Dam are likely to be universally negative in terms of ecosystem function, regional demography, and local village life. While there are potential benefits associated with the dam and impounded waters, it is unclear if the net profit will be positive. For those in the immediate wake of the dam and reservoir, all indications are that this construction and “development” project will actually prove a negative impact to the region and harm local economies. Given the stressors that already exist in the region, it is possible that this dam may well prove something of a death knell to various ecological and human communities currently residing in this oasis in eastern Turkey. 4 Project Scope & Terminology This report concerns the Aras River in eastern Turkey. Please note that I will frequently refer to the “Lower” Aras River in this report. This description is Turkey- centric and should be interpreted as the lowest section of the river within the country of Turkey. The Lower Aras River should herein be taken to mean the region along the course of Aras River just before it enters Armenia/merges with the Arpa^ay River. Please note that this region is roughly the halfway point of the river's geo morphological journey to the Caspian Sea and so not the “lower” river in the overall geographic sense. Most of the riparian and upland data and observations collected and reported herein were made within 20 km of the confluence, although I did make qualitative assessments across the region as far as 60 river kilometers upriver from the confluence. While I am affiliated with both Kuzey Doga and California State University, the opinions expressed herein are my own and not necessarily those of my affiliated organizations nor colleagues. respectfully submitted as an expert in ecologist. They represent my professional interpretation of conditions on the ground. Study Goals This effort represents one subset of an ongoing, multi-year regional effort to characterize the conditions and trends of eastern Turkey. This particular report is a distillation of information and insights gleaned from numerous visits to the Lower Aras River area (proximate to the confluence with the Arpa^ay River and the Turkish-Armenian border) between 2006 and 2013 and an intensive two week visit in late October 2013 which focused on exploring pre-dam conditions. In this brief summary, I attempt to: 1. Characterize the gross abiotic landscapes of the Lower Aras River. 2. Characterize the gross biotic community of the Lower Aras River riparian corridor. 3. Report on the impacts of other hydrological impediments upon nearby stretches of the Aras River. 4. Make initial predictions for what a dam and impounded reservoir would do to this section of the Lower Aras River. 5 Aras River Overview The Aras River is a major river in the southern Caucasus Region of the Anatolian Plain. The headwaters proximate to the Turkish city of Erzurum are at an elevation of almost 2,000 m. From here, the river flows initially southward before turning eastward, ultimately flowing through three Turkish provinces (Erzurum, Agri, and Igdir) and dropping nearly 1,000 m in elevation before merging with the Arpafay River and entering Armenia (the Arpafay delineates the Turkish-Armenian border) just west of the village of Asagiciyrikli (40.126°N, 43.650°W, elevation 950 m ). Upon leaving Turkey, it flows through or alongside Armenia, Azerbaijan and Iran before merging with the Kura River and ultimately dumping into the Caspian Sea (39.229°N, 49.328°W, elevation -30 m) near Neftcala, Azerbaijan after a run of 1,072 km. Lower Aras River Conditions The Aras River flows through the narrow Aras Valley for almost 100 km before the confluence Arpafay. Valley ridge lines are 500-1,000 m above the riverbed and help contain typical flows to a relatively restricted primary channel usually 75-150 m wide. True bank full conditions are comparatively rare outside of spring flows (I have seen them only once). The riverbed itself is typically braided (owing to both the steepness of the river slope and high sediment loads) with a relatively high proportion of boulders (> 20 cm maximum diameter) and comparatively little cobble (> 0.5, < 20 cm) on the bed surface. Attempts to infer historic, undisturbed river flows are confounded not only by poor/non-existent data, but also by extensive historic and ongoing manipulations of the channel's geomorphology (many of which are intensifying). At least 75% of the river length within the valley is leveed or severely constricted by impoundments or diversions. A small subset of stretches such as the area in within a few kilometers of the confluence has an expansive primary channel (~ 800 m w ide). Strong variability in river flow is the norm in this arid region of the w orld and floods/droughts are a common experience of residents of this region. Generally, Aras River flow is driven by snow melt and intense precipitation events in the spring and early summer which drive heavy seasonal flows. That flow slackens by mid summer and moves the slowest in between October and December. The Aras River drops an average of nearly 2 m per km of river in its journey to the Caspian with the United Nations estimating the Aras discharges perhaps 2.5 billion m3 into Armenia “annually” (UNDP/GEF 2006), although this estimate clearly varies greatly from hear to year.