WESTERN BALKANS EXTREMISM RESEARCH FORUM BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA REPORT Edina Bećirević April 2018 EXTREMISM RESEARCH FORUM | BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA REPORT 2 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................................................................. 3 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH ............................................................................................................................... 8 1.1. LIMITATIONS AND CHALLENGES ........................................................................................................................................... 9 1.2. DEFINING EXTREMISM AND RADICALISATION .............................................................................................................. 10 2. FORMS AND THREATS OF EXTREMISM ..................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1. AN EVER-SHIFTING CONTINUUM ........................................................................................................................................ 11 2.2. MAIN EXTREMIST THREATS .................................................................................................................................................. 11 2.3. THE THREAT OF SALAFI EXTREMISM IN PERSPECTIVE ............................................................................................. 14 2.4. THE MESSENGERS ................................................................................................................................................................... 17 2.5. DE-RADICALISATION AND DISENGAGEMENT PROGRAMMES .................................................................................. 20 3. DRIVERS OF RADICALISATION ..................................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1. PSYCHOSOCIAL FACTORS .................................................................................................................................................... 21 3.2. IDEOLOGICAL FACTORS ........................................................................................................................................................ 23 3.3. WOMEN AND RADICALISATION ........................................................................................................................................... 24 3.4. CASE STUDIES: THREE STORIES FROM BIHAĆ .............................................................................................................. 27 4. ‘AT-RISK’ COMMUNITIES.................................................................................................................................................................. 32 5. LINKS TO ORGANISED CRIME ....................................................................................................................................................... 37 6. TRANSNATIONAL COOPERATION ................................................................................................................................................ 38 6.1. THE INFLUENCE OF GULF STATES AND SAUDI ARABIA ............................................................................................ 38 6.2. TIES TO THE DIASPORA ......................................................................................................................................................... 40 7. CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 42 7.1. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH ......................................................................................................... 44 7.2. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS ................................................................................................................... 45 ANNEXES .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46 ANNEX 1: SAMPLE DATA ................................................................................................................................................................ 47 ANNEX 2: DATA COLLECTION ...................................................................................................................................................... 49 ANNEX 3: CASE STUDIES................................................................................................................................................................ 50 ANNEX 4: MAPPING ‘AT-RISK’ COMMUNITIES......................................................................................................................... 54 EXTREMISM RESEARCH FORUM | BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA REPORT 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The complex political, religious, and interethnic dynamics at play in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) make it an ideal environment for examining the relationships between various forms of extremism and their impacts, but at the same time more difficult for researchers to neatly draw definitive conclusions for policymakers. Global interest in the foreign fighter phenomenon has spurred an intense focus on the extremist ideologies driving groups like ISIS, resulting in a relative lack of attention on other extremisms, be they religiously or politically inspired. Findings from this research bring forth several important new conclusions: 1) Salafists in BiH represent less of a threat of violence than is insinuated in media and by some politicians, but may pose a more subtly divisive threat to liberal democratic values in a still-dysfunctional Bosnian society; and 2) No form of extremism exists in a vacuum, and the focus on Salafism in BiH that has drawn attention away from other forms of extremism risks obscuring the threat posed by mutual extremisms and reciprocal radicalisation.1 These findings serve as a reminder that the Bosnian context especially demands a wide-angle view by policymakers, who will only be able to develop effective prevention initiatives and de- radicalisation programmes if they understand the full spectrum of radicalising forces in BiH. Security sources interviewed for this research generally viewed Salafists as posing little to no risk of violence but many interviewees did express concerns that non-violent Salafi radicalisation may pose a risk to BiH, though one that is difficult to quantify. Still, given the inaccuracy of predictions that returning foreign fighters would represent a terrorist threat, other forms of extremism are again rising to the top of the Bosnian security agenda. In 2016, the Ministry of Security identified “terrorism in all its manifestations,” including any “forms of extremism that aim to jeopardise the territorial integrity” of BiH, as primary tests of domestic security.2 While it is challenging, if not impossible, to develop a profile of the “typical extremist,” findings in BiH strongly point to identity and belonging as common key factors in the radicalisation processes of Salafists.3 The recent history of the region has created an environment in which identity 1 For example, see: Bailey, G. and Edwards, P. (2017) Rethinking ‘Radicalisation’: Microradicalisations and Reciprocal Radicalisation as an Intertwined Process. Journal for Deradicalization 10: 255-281; and Lenos, S. (2016) Tackling the challenges to prevention policies in an increasingly polarised society. RAN Issue Paper, November 2016. Available from: https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/sites/homeaffairs/files/what-we-do/networks/radicalisation_awareness_network/ran- papers/docs/tackling_challenges_prevention_policies_in_increasingly_polarised_society_112016_en.pdf [Accessed 6 January 2017]. 2 Ministarstvo sigurnosti Bosne i Hercegovine. Informacija o stanju sigurnosti u Bosni i Hercegovini u 2016. godini (2017), 9. Available from: http://msb.gov.ba/ PDF/info2017.pdf 3 This reflects baseline studies. See: Azinović, V. & Jusić, M. (2016) The New Lure of the Syrian War: The Foreign Fighters’ Bosnian Contingent. Sarajevo: Atlantic Initiative, 92. EXTREMISM RESEARCH FORUM | BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA REPORT 4 formation among Bosnians is tightly tied to religion and ethnicity. The fact that BiH has the highest youth unemployment rate in the world,4 as well as one of the highest overall unemployment rates must be tackled not only as a matter of economic policy but within de-radicalisation initiatives. Unemployment rates are incredibly high among returned foreign fighters, which may hinder or even render ineffective any efforts directed at re- socialising, reintegrating, or de-radicalising these former combatants. The geography of Salafi extremism in BiH largely reflects legacies of the 1992- 1995 war, during which mujahideen set up training camps in remote locations near Zenica, introducing local populations to Salafism.5.6 These communities manifest the desire of many extremists to segregate themselves from mainstream society, but over time, Salafism has spread into larger towns and suburban areas. While person-to-person