Climate Change Policy in Manitoba: A Small Province Looking to “Punch above its Weight” BRENDAN BOYD1 I. INTRODUCTION n 2008, Manitoba joined the wave of Canadian provinces and US states taking action on climate change by becoming the first I jurisdiction in North America to pass legislation committing to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets set by the international Kyoto agreement. In the absence of leadership on climate change from federal governments in Canada and the US, Manitoba partnered with and drew lessons from subnational trailblazers like California, British Columbia and Quebec while pursuing several climate change policies that were spreading across the continent. In addition to legislated GHG targets, these initiatives included a regional cap-and-trade system, new standards to reduce emissions from vehicles and fuel, and a template for organizing government to develop policy. When introducing Manitoba’s climate change legislation, Premier Gary Doer was so confident in the province’s ability to meet its commitments that he suggested the government should be defeated in the next election if its GHG targets were not achieved (Turenne 2008). However, the government was unable to adopt the more aggressive initiatives which it had committed to through collaboration and opted to fall back on measures to reduce coal use and promote renewable energy which it began developing in the early 2000s. This article seeks to explain the climate change policies that resulted in Manitoba by employing three research questions: What motivated the province to engage in collaboration and pursue policies that were spreading across North America? What role did collaboration and cross-jurisdictional learning play in provincial policy development, and how was the selection of 1 Brendan Boyd holds a Ph.D. in public administration from the University of Victoria. 156 MANITOBA LAW JOURNAL | VOLUME 38 NUMBER 2 policies in Manitoba influenced by initiatives developed in other jurisdictions in addition to local factors? This article contributes to the Canadian provincial climate change literature by developing and testing an analytical framework (Figure 1, p.14) which explores the role of cross-jurisdictional influences, in addition to the effect of local factors, which have been studied more frequently, to understand Manitoba’s policy response. The study is based on confidential interviews with ten climate change policy makers in Manitoba—including bureaucratic officials, politicians and members of environmental and business advocacy groups—as well as several policy makers in Ontario, BC, Quebec and California. The interviews were conducted between Fall 2013 and Summer 2014, and were supported by detailed review of policy documents and media reports. As a small province with large hydroelectricity resources, Manitoba jumped on the bandwagon of subnational jurisdictions acting on climate change in an attempt to “punch above its weight” (Thomas 2008: 46) and influence Canadian and North American policies. However, with the onset of the economic downturn in North America in the late 2000s, the failure of national policies and the realization that regional policies may not reflect provincial interests, the province began to view its aggressive stance on climate change as a liability rather than an opportunity. Most of the collaborative initiatives that Manitoba committed to were consigned to the policy dustbin. II. MANITOBA’S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Manitoba’s contribution to Canadian GHG emissions is small at approximately three percent (Environment Canada 2015). The province relies on hydro-powered generation for electricity which keeps its emissions low and, without a large industrial base, transportation and agricultural are the largest sources of greenhouse gases. Manitoba was well- positioned to act on climate change because it would not necessarily require a large-scale transition to cleaner forms of electricity or a dramatic slowdown in the economy. As one policy maker that had intimate knowledge of the government’s decision-making process stated, addressing climate change was not seen as a “huge mountain to climb” for Manitoba compared to other jurisdictions. Climate Change Policy in Manitoba 157 Manitoba was one of only two provinces, along with Quebec, to support the Canadian federal government’s decision to ratify the Kyoto protocol. The international agreement that set GHG targets for participating nations had sparked a national debate on climate change in Canada in the early 2000s. Alberta was adamantly opposed to Kyoto because of the costs that would be imposed on the province’s oil and gas industry. All provinces, including Manitoba and Quebec, were concerned about the lack of consultation from Ottawa in developing a national implementation plan (Canadian Intergovernmental Conference Secretariat [CICS] 2002). Despite provincial concerns, the federal government ratified the agreement and committed to reducing the country’s emissions by six percent from 1990 levels in the period between 2008 and 2012. With the possibility of climate change policies that could constrain carbon emissions across Canada and North America, Manitoba was attracted to the prospect of becoming a low-carbon energy provider to neighbouring jurisdictions such as Ontario and American midwest states. As one policy maker who played an important role in developing the province’s climate change strategy indicated: “Manitoba’s vision for climate change was also a vision for Canada and beyond.” In addition to supporting Kyoto, the province was also pushing the federal government to back an east-west power grid that would increase transmission capacity between provinces and allow Manitoba Hydro, the Crown corporation responsible for electricity, to export power to its neighbours (Manitoba, Legislative Assembly, Throne Speech 2004). Economic advantage was not the only consideration that led Manitoba to act on climate change. The province had also felt the effects of a changing climate in several tangible ways which increased the salience of the issue among the public and politicians. The 1997 Red River “flood of the century,” which caused significant damage of property and resulted in the Canadian military being called upon to evacuate stranded residents, was still fresh in people’s minds and flooding across the province was becoming an annual occurrence. The province is also home to a significant tract of boreal forest, which was threatened by climate change, and several policy makers interviewed for this study suggested this was an important conservation issue for the premier and government. One of these policy makers asserted there was a keen sense that because Manitoba was vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, the province should not 158 MANITOBA LAW JOURNAL | VOLUME 38 NUMBER 2 just “rest on its laurels” and wait for the federal government or someone else to address the problem. Manitoba got a head start on most provinces in addressing climate change by commissioning a high profile task force in 2001, chaired by former federal Minister of Foreign Affairs Lloyd Axworthy, which consulted the public, stakeholders and experts to provide recommendations on how the government should respond to the issue (Manitoba Climate Change Task Force 2001). The result was a government strategy document which indicated the province could meet its portion of Canada’s international targets, largely through its renewable energy sector, and called on the federal government to use the plan as a template for a national strategy (Manitoba, Department of Conservation 2002). Manitoba began to look for likeminded partners with which it could collaborate to influence national climate change policy, a strategy which it had employed on healthcare and economic policy (Thomas 2008). The province has less capacity to influence Canadian policy discussions compared to larger provinces, like Quebec, Ontario or Alberta, which carry more political and economic weight at the national level. Manitoba found a natural partner in Quebec, another province with hydro resources, and Doer already enjoyed a close relationship with the province’s premier Jean Charest. In 2005, the two leaders co-hosted a summit of subnational and regional governments from around the world as part of the Conference of the Parties (COP), the annual meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), in Montreal. The summit led to a declaration, signed by all participants, of the important role that subnational governments had to play in addressing climate change. The 2006 Canadian federal election brought Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, who had been hostile to Kyoto while in opposition, to power. As such, hope for a national solution to climate change that resembled Manitoba’s vision dimmed. Still looking for allies that shared its goal of a low-carbon North American economy, Manitoba began to focus its attention south of the border to US states who were facing a federal Bush administration that had also rejected Kyoto and was loath to act on climate change. Through events like the Montreal Summit, Doer had developed a relationship with California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who had Climate Change Policy in Manitoba 159 emerged as a leading figure on climate change in the US. The former movie star invited the Manitoba premier to attend the signing of California’s landmark Global Warming Solutions Act in September 2006 (AB 32), which set state-wide GHG emission reduction targets.