Beyond Fossil Fuels Planning a just transition for Alaska’s economy BEYOND FOSSIL FUELS By John Talberth, Ph.D. Daphne Wysham With research support from Ernie Niemi (Natural Resource Economics), Aaron Danowski, Deborah McLaren, Pablo Barreyro, and Michael Mintz. Prepared by Center for Sustainable Economy for: Northern Alaska Environmental Center Greenpeace USA October 2017 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................7 The Transition is Already Underway ............................................................................................................................................. 7 Adapting to Rapid Climate Change .............................................................................................................................................. 7 Community Empowerment and Fighting Colonialism ......................................................................................................... 8 Transition Opportunities Abound ................................................................................................................................................ 8 Policies to Accelerate the Transition ...........................................................................................................................................10 SECTION I .............................................................................................................................11 Declining profitability and demand for Alaska’s fossil fuels ..............................................................................................12 Climate change ..................................................................................................................................................................................13 SECTION II ............................................................................................................................14 Eradicating Poverty ..........................................................................................................................................................................14 Maintaining Full Employment ......................................................................................................................................................14 Closing the Inequality Divide ........................................................................................................................................................15 Improving public health .................................................................................................................................................................16 Reducing import dependence and making life more affordable ....................................................................................16 Enhancing food security .................................................................................................................................................................17 Modernizing the housing stock ...................................................................................................................................................17 Improving educational attainment and vocational skills ...................................................................................................17 CASE STUDY: Oscarville’s Holistic Approach to Community Sustainability..................................................................18 SECTION III ...........................................................................................................................19 What climate change is bringing to Alaska .............................................................................................................................19 Observed climate change ..............................................................................................................................................................20 What the future will bring ..............................................................................................................................................................21 Alaska Native communities are particularly affected ...........................................................................................................22 CASE STUDY: Newtok In The Crosshairs Of Climate Change .............................................................................................22 SECTION IV ...........................................................................................................................25 Rio+20: The Future We Want .........................................................................................................................................................26 Sustainable development goals ..................................................................................................................................................26 Despite calls for more resource extraction, Alaska decision makers now recognize the need for an alternative, sustainable development pathway. ....................................................................................................................28 SECTION V ............................................................................................................................31 THEMATIC AREA 1: HUMAN CAPITAL .......................................................................................................................................31 Using, protecting and restoring traditional knowledge ....................................................................................................32 Knowledge inventories ...................................................................................................................................................................33 Dissemination and training ...........................................................................................................................................................33 CASE STUDY: First Indigenous-owned video game developer and publisher ............................................................33 Community-based monitoring ....................................................................................................................................................34 Investing in the work-at-home economy .................................................................................................................................35 3 Broadband access .............................................................................................................................................................................35 Skills and training ..............................................................................................................................................................................36 Education, health, and cultural empowerment .....................................................................................................................37 Youth empowerment .......................................................................................................................................................................37 Telemedicine .......................................................................................................................................................................................38 Suicide prevention ............................................................................................................................................................................38 Holistic healthcare ............................................................................................................................................................................38 THEMATIC AREA 2: ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLES .........................................................................................39 Energy efficiency ...............................................................................................................................................................................39 Renewable Energy ............................................................................................................................................................................40 } Wind ................................................................................................................................................................................................40 } Solar ................................................................................................................................................................................................41 } Hydroelectric ...............................................................................................................................................................................41 } Hydrokinetic (river, tidal, wave) .............................................................................................................................................41 } Wave ................................................................................................................................................................................................42 CASE STUDY: Harnessing the Energy Potential of the Kvichak River ..............................................................................42