Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 Fortieth Edition 20182018 20202020 20172017 20192019 20212021 NCES 2013-008 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 Fortieth Edition JANUARY 2013 William J. Hussar National Center for Education Statistics Tabitha M. Bailey IHS Global Insight NCES 2013-008 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION U.S. Department of Education Arne Duncan Secretary Institute of Education Sciences John Q. Easton Director National Center for Education Statistics Jack Buckley Commissioner The ationalN Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze, and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries. NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain. We strive to make our products available in a variety of formats and in language that is appropriate to a variety of audiences. You, as our customer, are the best judge of our success in communicating information effectively. If you have any comments or suggestions about this or any other NCES product or report, we would like to hear from you. Please direct your comments to NCES, IES, U.S. Department of Education 1990 K Street NW Washington, DC 20006-5651 January 2013 The NCES Home ageP address is http://nces.ed.gov. The NCES ublicationsP and Products address is http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch. This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-08-DO-0087 with IHS Global Insight. Mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Suggested Citation Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2013). Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 (NCES 2013-008). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. For ordering information on this report, write to ED Pubs, U.S. Department of Education P.O. Box 22207 Alexandria, VA 22304 or call toll free 1-877-4ED-PUBS or order online at http://www.edpubs.gov. Content Contact William J. Hussar (202) 502-7359 [email protected] Foreword Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 is the 40th Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on and describes the models and assumptions used to develop elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary the national and state projections. The enrollment models use degree-granting institutions. This report provides revisions enrollment data and population estimates and projections from of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on 2020 and projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. expenditures to the year 2021. The models also use projections of economic variables from IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting service. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary The projections presented in this report are based on the school enrollment and public high school graduates to the 2000 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal year 2021 at the state level. The projections in this report migration, net immigration, and mortality rate from the were produced by the National Center for Education Census Bureau. For further information, see appendix A. Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant Chris Chapman, Acting Associate Commissioner detailed projections prepared for individual states. Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are Studies Division the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect education statistics. Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 iii This page intentionally left blank. Contents Page Foreword ...............................................................................................................................................................................iii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................................................ xi About This Report ..................................................................................................................................................................1 Projections ....................................................................................................................................................................1 Limitations of Projections .............................................................................................................................................1 Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment .........................................................................................................3 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................3 Accuracy of Projections ..................................................................................................................................................3 National ........................................................................................................................................................................4 State and Regional (Public School Data) ........................................................................................................................6 Section 2. High School Graduates ...................................................................................................................................7 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................7 Accuracy of Projections ..................................................................................................................................................7 National ........................................................................................................................................................................8 State and Regional (Public School Data) ......................................................................................................................10 Section 3. Elementary and Secondary Teachers .............................................................................................................11 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................11 Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................................................11 Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools ...........................................................................................................12 Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education ....................................................................15 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................15 Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................................................15 Current Expenditures ..................................................................................................................................................16 Section 5. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions .........................................................................19 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................19 Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................................................19 Total Enrollment .........................................................................................................................................................20