The information in this publication is believed to be correct at the time of manufacture. Whilst care has been taken to ensure that the information is accurate, the publisher can accept no responsibility for any errors or omissions or for changes to the details given. Views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the thesis committee, the University of North Dakota Honors Program, or any subsequent publisher. 2 Genocide in Rwanda: Recurrence Risk Model Using Two Early Warning Models by Clarinda Rae Solberg A Thesis Submitted to the University of North Dakota Honors Program Committee In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For Graduation As a Scholar in the Honors Program Grand Forks, North Dakota 2 April 2012 2 | P a g e 3 ABSTRACT While very little attention has been paid to the possibility of another genocide in Rwanda, prior genocide is an important risk factor for recurrence. Yet a lack of in-depth quantitative and qualitative analysis on this likelihood is leaving a gaping hole in the field of genocide prevention. Scholars and non-governmental organizations have failed to provide a full-scale scrutiny of today’s Rwanda while at the same time admitting it is a country at risk for possible large scale conflict and criticizing the international community’s failure to act in 1994. This research fills a significant hole in the current literature by analyzing the existing conditions for conflict recurrence in Rwanda using two never before contrasted early warning models and placing them side by side for a more complete risk assessment profile. For this research, I employ the use of Barbara Harff’s 2003 Risk Assessment Model as promoted by the United Nations in early genocide detection as well as the Sentinel Project’s genocide risk factors list. My research asks, utilizing these two early warning models for genocide in Rwanda, has the possibility of genocide changed over the course of the last eighteen years – has Rwanda stabilized or is the possibility of genocide recurrence still present? This examination into Rwanda’s present also has implications for what steps the international community should take in order to prevent future tragedies. 3 | P a g e 4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This accomplishment is not only mine but shared with all those who helped in its fulfillment. My thesis adviser, Dr. Brian Urlacher, is of course one of whom I owe much thanks. Always busy but never too preoccupied to assist, he repeatedly assured me by coming up with answers when I seemed to reach a brick wall. This project, which means more to me than I can begin to explain, could not have been attained without his continued support and expertise. He, along with Dr. Morchoruk, served as elemental to its completion. My family, by Western standards or not, greatly influenced my thought and serve as a persistent reminder of the utterly inhuman, brutally concrete ramifications of the phenomenon that I study. Their stories of surviving genocide in East Africa serve as the passion behind my voice. I can only hope that this work somehow calls attention to the continued situation of concern in Rwanda. Although they do not appear explicitly in my thesis, my experiences in East Africa, my discussions there and my time at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda have greatly influenced my work. I would like to thank all those who assisted me in the realization of this trip as well as the ICTR library staff whose assistance was greatly appreciated. Lastly, I would like to thank my friends and family. They fully supported me through it all, even while not completely understanding its full personal significance. It was my mom who taught me to love and while she may never comprehend my interest in the Rwandan genocide, hopefully she remembers it as my own practical application, connected to the simple upbringing she provided though vastly unconnected in her eyes. Michelle and Marie, the two of you have inspired me with your unwavering belief in me even when I doubt myself, your increased interest in Africa as a continent and your own engagement in the concerns I hold dear. I could not ask for better friends. 4 | P a g e 5 You can outdistance that which is running after you, but not what is running inside of you. -Rwandan Proverb A common humanity is not just something you recognize, it's something you actively pursue. It’s something in which, if you believe, you must engage. You can’t just sit back and agree with the idea or it won’t hold weight. Dedicated to Rwanda’s future And the world’s humanity. Blood is thicker than water And we’re all connected. 5 | P a g e 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ............................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgments............................................................................................................... 4 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 7 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 8 List of Abbreviations .......................................................................................................... 9 Key Individuals ................................................................................................................ 10 Chapter 1: Introduction ..................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 2: Barbara Harff .................................................................................................. 19 Chapter 3: Sentinel Project ............................................................................................... 24 Chapter 4: Conclusion....................................................................................................... 81 Chapter 5: Models in Contrast .......................................................................................... 83 Appendix ........................................................................................................................... 85 References ......................................................................................................................... 94 6 | P a g e 7 LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1: Barbara Harff Risk Assessment Numerical Results ........................................20 Figure 2: Barbara Harff Risk Assessment with Ideology as Variable ............................21 Figure 3: Adding Economic Development to the 2003 Risk Assessment ......................22 Figure 4: Early Warning System Components ...............................................................24 Figure 5: Threatwiki Correlations ...................................................................................26 Figure 6: Threatwiki Timeline ........................................................................................27 Figure 7: Authority Trends of Rwanda 1961-2010.........................................................33 Figure 8: Rwanda’s Military Expenditure as Percent of GDP ........................................39 Figure 9: Rwanda’s Exports & Imports 2004-2010 ........................................................55 Figure 10: Rwanda’s Balance of Payments 2004-2010 ..................................................56 Figure 11: Human Development in Rwanda1980-2012 .................................................59 7 | P a g e 8 LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1: Barbara Harff Indicators, Sources and Values .................................................17 Table 2: Findings of the Barbara Harff 2003 Risk Assessment Model 2011 .................19 Table 3: Sentinel Project: Indicators and Sources ..........................................................28 Table 4: Finance Requirements of Long-Term Investment Framework Plan (2006 – 2010) .........................................................................................................................................54 Table 5: Scholarly Basis for Each of Sentinel Project’s Risk Factors ............................85 8 | P a g e 9 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS FARGFonds Fonds National pour l'Assistance aux Rescapés du Génocide A fund for the support of genocide survivors, this is technically supposed to be available for both Hutu and Tutsi genocide survivors. In the past, this has not always been the case with much documentation of aid being denied to Hutu survivors while Tutsi who were not even in the country at the time of the genocide have been at times able to access it. Recently, the FARG has received much scrutiny and an investigation on the issue is being conducted. So far as the author can tell at time of publication, the scrutiny is not related to disproportionate access of funds by Tutsi and instead hinges upon the creation of ghost beneficiaries, poor construction of survivors’ homes, corruption, and mismanagement. RPF The Rwandan Patriotic Front is the current ruling party of Rwanda with Paul Kagame as president. The party was created in 1987 in Uganda by the Tutsi diaspora community. UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UN United Nations SOC Situation of concern EWS Early warning system 9 | P a g e 10 KEY INDIVIDUALS Paul Kagame Current (6th) president of Rwanda and member of the Rwandan Patriotic Front, Kagame is a Tutsi who is given credit for ending the 1994 genocide despite evidence of his involvement. The sixth and current president, Kagame is in