Todmorden Town Investment Plan Section 1 Appendices Building a foundation to deliver opportunities for all Contents Appendices Appendix 1 Evidence Base Socio-Economic Baseline (Motts’ slides) AspinallVerdi’s Property Market Summary Accommodation and the Enterprise Hub Notes and Report Appendix 2 Project Prioritisation Appendix 3 Town Deal Engagement Report Appendix 4 Youth and Community Engagement Report Appendix 5 Delivery Programme Appendix 6 Letters of Support APPENDIX 1 EVIDENCE BASE APPENDIX 1 EVIDENCE BASE Socio-Economic Baseline Todmorden Socio-economic overview Mott MacDonald November 2020 Population and age structure Key summary • There are approximately 11,000 people in Todmorden as of • The proportion of Working age residents (16-64) is 60.9%, 2019. This accounts for 5.2% of the Calderdale and less than which is marginally below regional (62.1%) and national 1.0% of the Yorkshire and the Humber population. (62.3%) averages. • The proportion of Children (Under 16) in Todmorden is 18.2%, • The proportion of Elderly residents (65 and over) is 20.9%, which, alongside Calderdale, is broadly in line with the regional which is larger than the regional (18.8%) and national (18.5%) and national averages. averages. Population age profile, 2019 Total Children Children Working age Elderly Elderly residents Working age (16-64) % Population (Under 16) (Under 16) % (16-64) residents (65+) (65+) % Todmorden 11,000 2,000 18.2% 6,700 60.9% 2,300 20.9% Calderdale 211,500 41,400 19.6% 130,300 61.6% 39,800 18.8% West Yorkshire 2,332,500 479,300 20.5% 1,464,600 62.8% 388,500 16.7% Yorkshire and The Humber 5,503,000 1,050,600 19.1% 3,419,600 62.1% 1,032,800 18.8% England and Wales 59,440,000 11,380,500 19.1% 37,043,200 62.3% 11,016,100 18.5% Source: Population Estimates, 2019, ONS Mott MacDonald 3 December 2020 Population density Population density (number of residents per hectare) Proportion of working age residents (16 to 64) Source: Mott MacDonald based on mid-year population estimates. ONS, 2019 Source: Mott MacDonald based on mid-year population estimates. ONS, 2019 Mott MacDonald 3 December 2020 Skills and Qualifications Skills summary Occupational structure, as a % of working age population • There are proportionately 1.4% more residents employed in the highest skilled (SOC 1-3) jobs in Todmorden (41.5%) compared to Calderdale (40.1%). This is also greater than for Yorkshire and the Humber (36.8%), and in line with national averages (40.9%). • High employment in highly skilled occupations is particularly driven by low employment in Professional occupations (18.4%), which is 1.0% higher than the national average. • There is a low proportion of low skilled occupations (SOC 7-9) in Todmorden (23.9%) compared to Calderdale (26.3%), regionally (30.4%) and nationally (26.8%). • Low skilled occupational employment is particularly low in sales and customer services in Todmorden, accounting for 6.7% of employment, compared to 8.4% nationally. Elementary occupations (9.6%) are also below the national average (11.1%). Source: Census 2011, ONS. Note: White dotted line highlights SOC 1-3. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding Mott MacDonald 3 December 2020 Skills and Qualifications Qualifications summary Highest level of qualification, as a % of working age population • In 2011, 29.2% of the population aged 16 and over are educated to NVQ4+, which represents a much larger proportion than Calderdale (25.0%), the regional (23.3%) and national average (27.2%). • Conversely, there is a greater proportion of residents with no qualifications in Todmorden (23.4%) compared to nationally (22.7%). However, this is lower than Calderdale and Yorkshire and the Humber. • There is a relatively large proportion of apprenticeships in Todmorden (4.5%), compared to the national average (3.6%). This is also true of the wider district of Calderdale (4.9%). Source: Census 2011, ONS. Note: Level of qualification refers to national vocational qualification (NVQ) levels. Mott MacDonald 3 December 2020 Occupational structure and output Key summary Employees by broad sector, as % of total, 2019 • In Todmorden, the key employment sectors are in the Transport and storage, Public sector and the Manufacturing sector. Of these sectors, only the Public sector has a smaller proportion than the national average. • In particular, the Transport and storage sector (20.0%) is a key specialism, proportionately accounting for 15.0% more than the national average (5.0%). This is driven by employment spread across road freight and warehousing & storage. • In terms of gross value added (GVA), the key output sectors in Calderdale are in Manufacturing (20.0% of output), Financial and insurance (19.8%) and Real estate (10.1%). Transport and storage only accounts for 3.2% of output in Calderdale. Source: BRES, ONS, 2019. Note: Production includes Agriculture, forestry and fishing, Mining and quarrying, Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply & Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities. Public sector includes Public Administration and Defence, Education and Health. Mott MacDonald 3 December 2020 Unemployment and the impact of COVID-19 Total claimant counts, as a proportion of all residents aged between 16-64, Key summary March to October 2020 • Overall, economic activity and employment rates are in line with the national picture, both clearly affected by COVID-19 and the national and local lockdowns. • Prior to the economic crisis resulting from the pandemic, ’claimant count rate stood at 3.4%, marginally larger than the England and Wales average of 3.0%. • Amongst those residents who are economically inactive, retirement is the primary reason. • Claimant count proportions increased rapidly during the first national lockdown and have stabilised at this higher level over the past few months. • By October, ’claimant count rate stood at 6.9%, greater than the England and Wales average of 6.3%. • The impact of COVID-19 on ’economy in terms of increasing unemployment has clearly been Source: Claimant count for residents aged between 16 and 64, January to September 2020 and 2019 significant and is above the national level. mid-year population estimates Mott MacDonald 3 December 2020 Impact of COVID-19 on claimant count in Todmorden COVID-19 caused a clear uplift in the number of Universal Credit claimants Claimant count, October 2013 to October 2020 Claimant count, November 2019 to October 2020 500 465 500 450 450 465 455 455 445 400 400 430 435 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 250 250 260 190 250 250 200 200 235 235 150 125 120 130 150 95 100 100 50 50 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 July July 2020 May 2020 May April 2020 April June 2020 June March March 2020 August August 2020 October 2020 October January 2020 January February 2020 February November 2019 November 2019 December September 2020 September Source: Claimant count for residents aged between 16 and 64, ONS Mott MacDonald 3 December 2020 Unemployment Proportion of working age residents claiming Proportion of working age residents claiming out of work benefits, March 2020 out of work benefits, October 2020 Source: Claimant count for residents aged between 16 and 64, March to September 2020 and 2019 mid-year population estimates Mott MacDonald 3 December 2020 Deprivation Key summary Index of Multiple Deprivation by quintile, 2019 • Of the LSOAs that encompass Todmorden, Most deprived Second most Third most Fourth most Least deprived 28.6% of the population lives within the most quintile deprived quintile deprived quintile deprived quintile quintile deprived IMD quintile. This is a smaller than Calderdale (30.5%) and considerably greater than Yorkshire and the Humber (30.8%). Todmorden 28.6% 71.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% • However, the rest of Todmorden lies in the second most deprived quintile (71.4%). Calderdale 30.5% 21.9% 21.9% 19.5% 6.3% Yorkshire and the Humber 30.8% 17.5% 17.7% 18.8% 15.2% England 20.0% 20.6% 20.3% 19.8% 19.4% Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation, Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG), 2019 Mott MacDonald 3 December 2020 Deprivation Index of Multiple Deprivation by quintile, 2019 Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation, Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government Mott MacDonald (MHCLG), 2019 3 December 2020 Travel to work Key summary Travel to work summary, 2011 • Todmorden is a net exporter of labour, with more people travelling out of the area for work Total journeys to Total journeys to Self-containment (live Net commuting than travelling in to work. work, to work, from and work) • Self containment in Todmorden is high, at 70.3%, representing a larger proportion than at district Todmorden 1,700 2,700 -1,000 70.3% level (65.8%). • Travel to work from Todmorden is dominated by Calderdale 79,000 80,600 -1,600 65.8% car travel, which amounts to 61% of all journeys Yorkshire and to work, which is 5% less than the national the Humber 2,030,700 2,029,900 800 94.5% average. Travel on foot is also relatively popular, at 15% of all journeys, 2% greater than the England and national average. Wales 21,625,100 21,625,100 0 100.0% Source: Origin destination statistics, Census 2011, ONS Mott MacDonald 3 December 2020 Footfall trends The impact of COVID-19 on footfall in Calderdale • The Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report shows a significant reduction in footfall across Calderdale as a direct result of COVID-19. Classification Change in footfall (January/February • The reduction in footfall in Calderdale is broadly in line 2020-October/November 2020) with the trend for West Yorkshire as a whole.