Kerala Port PPP – Market Study Final Report November 2010 Prepared for: International Finance Corporation By: Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd Drewry House, Meridian Gate – South Quay 213 Marsh Wall, London E14 9FJ Tel: +44 (0) 20 7538 0191 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7987 9396 E-mail: [email protected] www.drewry.co.uk COPYRIGHT NOTICE This report is for the sole use of the purchaser and is not to be copied or distributed outside of the client organisation. Kerala Port PPP – Market Study Contents Contents Page No. Abbreviation 1-2 Section 1. Executive summary 3-12 Part – I Container Traffic Analysis Section 2. Kerala economy overview 14-26 2.1 Overview 15 2.2 Sectoral distribution of GSDP 16 2.3 Key industries 17 2.4 Infrastructure 19 2.5 Export and Import 20 2.6 Socio-economic scenario 23 2.7 Future development of Kerala’s economy-Key growth drivers 24 2.8 Investment Promotion 24 Section 3. Historic container traffic analysis 27-46 3.1 Container Traffic Growth in India 30 3.2 Regional container traffic trend in India 31 3.3 Growth of container volumes – key growth factors 32 3.4 Historic container traffic – Equipment size analysis 38 3.5 Line wise container traffic share in India 39 3.6 Major container shipping trade lanes in South Indian Ports 43 Section 4. Hinterland mapping 47-70 4.1 Karnataka 48 4.1.1 Key cargo centres 49 4.1.2 Industrial infrastructure 52 4.2 Tamil Nadu 54 4.2.1 Key cargo centres 55 4.2.2 Industrial infrastructure 63 4.3 Kerala 65 4.3.1 Key cargo centre 67 4.3.2 Industrial infrastructure 70 Section 5. Port infrastructure 71-107 5.1 Competing port facilities 74 5.2 Projected development of container handling capacity at ports in India 75 5.3 Capacity projects at upper West Coast ports 83 5.4 Capacity projects at Greater Mumbai ports 85 5.5 Capacity projects at lower West Coast ports 87 5.6 Capacity projects at lower East Coast ports 89 5.7 Capacity projects at central East Coast ports 92 © Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd Kerala Port PPP – Market Study Contents 5.8 Capacity projects at upper East Coast ports 94 5.9 SWOT analysis of port facilities in Lower West & Lower-East India 96 5.10 Port competitive analysis 98 5.10.1 Rail and road connectivity analysis 99 5.10.2 Existing Connectivity at Indian ports 101 5.10.3 Future connectivity projects at Indian ports 102 5.10.4 Port efficiency 105 5.10.5 Competitive benchmarking of Vizhinjam’s competing Ports 105 5.10.6 Relationship of port operators with shipping lines and logistic companies 107 Section 6. Transhipment traffic analysis – Indian Subcontinent 108-134 6.1 Historic development of Indian subcontinent container traffic 111 6.2 Gateway volumes 116 6.3 Transhipment volumes 119 6.4 Regional capacities and facilities in the region 122 6.5 Ship size limitations at competing ports 126 6.6 Comparison of transhipment tariffs 127 6.7 Comparative hub port economics 128 Section 7. Gateway container traffic forecast - India 135-169 7.1 Development of Indian container port market 136 7.2 Indian container port market forecast 2010 – 2044 141 7.3 Share of North West coast regions in India’s forecasted traffic 148 7.4 Share of Lower West & East coast regions in India’s forecasted traffic 154 7.5 Share of Central and Upper East coast regions in India’s forecasted traffic 160 7.6 Gateway container traffic forecast for Vizhinjam port 164 7.6.1 Perceived advantages and disadvantages of Vizhinjam port 168 Section 8. Transshipment container traffic forecast - Indian sub-continent 170-205 8.1 Colombo – Competitive profile 171 8.1.1 Colombo – SWOT Analysis 174 8.2 ISC Transshipment traffic forecast methodology 175 8.3 ISC Transshipment traffic forecast – main assumptions 175 8.4 ISC regional gateway (import-export) volumes forecast 177 8.5 Target market for Colombo & Vizhinjam – 2010-2044 188 8.6 Vizhinjam transhipment traffic forecast – 2010-2044 195 8.7 Vizhinjam Container traffic forecast by container size 202 Section 9. Vizhinjam vessel traffic forecast 206-210 Part – II Bulk & Non-Cargo Traffic Analysis Section 10. Coal traffic forecast 212-220 10.1 Coal import: Hinterland analysis 213 10.2 Logistics cost analysis 217 10.3 Coal traffic forecast 219 Section 11. Steel scrap traffic forecast 221-223 © Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd Kerala Port PPP – Market Study Contents Section 12. Fertilizer and FRM 224-232 12.1 Introduction 225 12.2 Historical analysis 225 Section 13. Chemicals and Petro products 233-256 13.1 Chemicals 234 13.1.1 Historical analysis 234 13.1.2 Hinterland mapping 236 13.1.3 Key Findings 236 13.1.4 Traffic at competing ports 237 13.1.5 Competitive port infrastructure 239 13.1.6 Forecast traffic for Vizhinjam Port 242 13.2 Petroleum products 243 13.2.1 Historical analysis 243 13.2.2 Petro products traffic at competing ports 245 13.2.3 Hinterland mapping 247 13.2.3.1 Refineries along western coast of southern India 247 13.2.3.2 Product pipelines in southern India 248 13.2.4 Competitive analysis for movement of petro products traffic 249 13.2.5 Key findings 252 13.2.6 Traffic forecast 253 Section 14. Edible oil and DOC 257-263 14.1 Indian Edible oil and DOC Industry 258 14.2 Edible oil traffic in Kerala 260 14.3 Competitive analysis 261 14.4 Edible oil traffic and DOC Traffic Forecast for Port till 2043-44 261 Section 15. Timber 264-270 15.1 Overview 265 15.2 Hinterland mapping 267 15.3 Traffic forecast 268 Section 16. Raw Cashew 271-277 16.1 Introduction 272 16.2 Hinterland analysis 273 16.3 Competitive analysis 275 16.4 Raw Cashew import forecast 276 Section 17. Coastal Shipping 278-284 17.1 Introduction 279 17.2 Existing coastal/rail/road movement in the hinterland of Vizhinjam port 280 17.3 Coastal traffic forecast 282 Section 18. Cruise market 285-290 18.1 Overview 286 18.2 Advantages for local economy 287 18.3 Potential for Vizhinjam 287 18.3.1 Market Estimation 288 © Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd Kerala Port PPP – Market Study Contents Section 19. Ship repair market 291-297 19.1 Overview 292 19.2 Ship Repair Market 292 19.2.1 Market drivers 293 19.2.2 Scheduled and unscheduled demand 293 19.3 Factor influencing capture rates for a yard. Scheduled and unscheduled demand 294 19.4 Types of repair dock 294 19.5 Repair yard basic needs 295 19.6 Opportunities for Vizhinjam 296 19.6.1 Infrastructure requirement 296 Part – III Tariff and Revenues Forecast & Port Strategy Section 20. Competitive positioning and marketing 299-317 20.1 Strategy development approach 300 20.2 Port characteristics 300 20.2.1 Proposed port infrastructure (Based on Techno-economic feasibility report prepared by L&T Ramboll) 300 20.2.2 Hinterland of Vizhinjam port 301 20.3 Business environment: Emerging opportunities 302 20.4 Competitive analysis 303 20.4.1 Porter’s Analysis 303 20.5 Positioning Strategy for Vizhinjam 306 20.5.1 Competitive advantage/disadvantage for Vizhinjam 306 20.6 Potential opportunity and core strategy 307 20.6.1 Potential opportunity for Vizhinjam port 307 20.6.2 Core Strategy 307 20.6.3 Port configuration for Vizhinjam multipurpose port 309 20.7 Ownership model 312 20.7.1 Ownership Model for Vizhinjam 313 20.8 Partnership and alliance 313 20.8.1 Role of Government 315 20.9 Marketing strategy 316 Section 21. Tariff and Revenue forecast 318-351 21.1 Indian port tariff overview 319 21.1.1 Upfront tariff setting for PPP projects 320 21.2 Tariff for Container handling 320 21.2.1 Vessel related charges (VRC) for container vessels 321 21.2.2 Ports - container related tariffs 324 21.2.3 Royalty terms 326 21.2.4 Terminal storage charges 327 21.2.5 Terminal pricing & container volume demand 329 21.3 Revenue forecast for Vizhinjam from Container operations 330 21.4 Components of tariff: bulk cargo 335 21.4.1 Vessel related charges (VRC) 335 21.4.2 Cargo related tariffs 338 21.4.3 Tariff forecast 342 21.5 Revenue Forecast: Other than container handling 344 21.6 Total revenue from all port operations 347 21.7 Revenue from CFS operations 348 © Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd Kerala Port PPP – Market Study Contents Annexure 352-357 Annexure 1 Port dues charges at select ports in India 352 Annexure 2 Comparison of berth hires fee at select ports in India (In US$/GRT/hr) 353 Annexure 3 Comparison of pilotage & towage fee at selected ports in India 354 Annexure 4 List of organisations contacted during market survey 355-357 Tables Table 2.1 Sectoral distribution of GSDP 16 Table 2.2 Sector wise annual growth rate 17 Table 2.3 Key industrial clusters in Kerala 18 Table 2.4 Commodity-wise Export through Kochi Port 2002- 03 to 2008-09 20 Table 2.5 Commodity-wise Import through Kochi Port 2002- 03 to 2008-09 21 Table 2.6 Export of Cashew Kernels: Kerala and India (2003-04 to 2007-08) 21 Table 2.7 Export of Cashew nut shell Liquid – Kerala & India (2003-04 to 2007-08) 21 Table 2.8 Import of Raw Cashew nuts: Kerala (2002-03 to 2007-08) 22 Table 2.9 Export of Coir and Coir Products from India during 2005-06 & 2008-09 22 Table 2.10 Item wise Exports of Marine Products from Kerala during 2005-06 and 2007-08 23 Table 2.11 Birth & Death Rate and Life Expectancy in Kerala 23 Table 2.12 Investment completed between March 2004-June 2009 25 Table 3.1 Existing & proposed container handling ports in India 28 Table 3.2 Port clusters in India & hinterland served 29 Table 3.3 Traffic pattern of Indian container handling ports 1998 - 99 to 2008 - 09 34-35 Table 3.4 Estimated share of container traffic per port, 1998 - 99 to 2008 - 09 36-37 Table 3.5 Equipment size wise container traffic at Indian major ports 38 Table 3.6 Trade lane wise growth rate in India 40 Table 3.7 Trade lane wise market share in India for loaded containers 41 Table 3.8 India – World – Base volume estimate for 2008 43 Table 3.9 Portfolio of liner services at large Southern container handling ports (Jan’10) 44 Table 3.10 Trade lane wise break up of port traffic – South India 45 Table 3.11 Trade lane wise market share in South India for loaded containers 46 Table 4.1 Total Karnataka Loaded container traffic handled (export + Import) 49 Table 4.2 State-wise coffee production in 2008-09 (Est.) 49-50 Table 4.3 Break-up of traffic handled by ICD Whitefield 51 Table 4.4 Estimated loaded container traffic flow in Karnataka (FY08) 52 Table 4.5 a.