Exploring the Moon and Mars: Choices for the Nation July 1991 OTA-ISC-502 NTIS order #PB91-220046 Recommended Citation: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology AssessmenT Exploring the Moon andMars: Choices for the Nation, OTA-ISC-502 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, July 1991). For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing 0ffice, Washington, DC 20402-9325 (order form can be found in the back of this report) Foreword The United States has always been at the forefront of exploring the planets. U.S. space- craft have now journeyed near every planet in the solar system but Pluto, the most distant one. Its probes have also landed on the Moon and Mars. Magellan, the most recent of U.S. interplan- etary voyagers, has been returning thought-provoking, high-resolution radar images of the sur- face of Venus. Scientifically, the prospect of returning to the Moon and exploring Mars in greater detail is an exciting one. President George Bush’s proposal to establish a permanent lunar base and to send human crews to explore Mars is ambitious and would engage both scientists and engi- neers in challenging tasks. Yet it also raises a host of issues regarding the appropriate mix of humans and machines, timeliness, and costs of space exploration. This Nation faces a sobering variety of economic, environmental, and technological challenges over the next few decades, all of which will make major demands on the Federal budget and other national assets. Within this context, Congress will have to decide the appropriate pace and direction for the President’s space exploration proposal. This report, the result of an assessment of the potential for automation and robotics tech- nology to assist in the exploration of the Moon and Mars, raises a number of issues related to the goals of the U.S. civilian space program. Among other things, the report discusses how greater attention to automation and robotics technologies could contribute to U.S. space explo- ration efforts. In undertaking this report, OTA sought the contributions of a broad spectrum of knowl- edgeable individuals and organizations. Some provided information, others reviewed drafts. OTA gratefully acknowledges their contributions of time and intellectual effort. /J’&# AM--+-f 2 JOHN H. GIBBONS Director . 111 Workshop on the Robotic Exploration of the Moon and Mars, Feb. 20,1991 Alan Shaw, Chair Manager International Security and Commerce Program Office of Technology Assessment Ronald Brunner Henry Lum Professor Chief Department of Political Science Information Sciences Division University of Colorado NASA Ames Research Laboratory Boulder, CO Moffett Field, CA Michael H. Carr Carle Pieters Geologist Associate Professor United States Geological Survey Department of Geosciences Branch of Astrogeology Brown University Menlo Park, CA Providence, RI Ben Clark Paul Spudis Technical Director Staff Scientist Martin Marietta Corp. Lunar and Planetary Institute Denver, CO Houston, TX Lynn Conway Alan Stem Associate Dean Research Scientist College of Engineering Center for Astrophysics and Space Astronomy University of Michigan University of Colorado Ann Arbor, MI Boulder, CO Michael Duke Carol Stoker Deputy for Science Lunar and Research Scientist Mars Exploration Program Office NASA Ames Research Center NASA Johnson Space Center Moffett Field, CA Houston, TX Giulio Varsi Matthew P. Golombek Manager Research Scientist Space Automation and Robotics program Jet Propulsion Laboratory Jet Propulsion Laboratory Pasadena, CA Pasadena, CA Noel Hinners William L. Whittaker Vice President and Chief Scientist Director Civil Space and Communications Field Robotics Laboratory Martin Marietta Corp. Carnegie Mellon University Bethesda, MD Pittsburgh, PA Eugene Levy Chairman Department of Planetary Science Lunar and Planetary Laboratory University of Arizona Tucson, AZ NOTE: OTA appreciates and is grateful for the valuable assistance and thoughtful critiques provided by the workshop participants. The participants do not, however, necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse this report. OTA assumes full responsibility for the report and the accuracy of its contents. iv OTA Project Staff – Exploring the Moon and Mars Lionel S. Johns, Assistant Director OTA Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Alan Shaw, International Security and Commerce Program Manager Ray A. Williamson, Project Director Conttibutor Victoria Garshnek, Space Policy Institute, George Washington University Administrative Staff Jacqueline R. Boykin Madeline Gross Louise Staley Acknowledgments This report has benefited from the advice of many individuals from the government and the pri- vate sector. OTA especially would like to thank the following individuals for their assistance and sup- port. The views expressed in this report, however, are the sole responsibility of the Office of Technology Assessment. Arnold D. Aldrich Stephen J. Hoffman NASA Headquarters Science Applications International Corp. Washington, DC Houston, TX Dale Andersen G. Scott Hubbard Lockheed Corp. NASA Ames Research Center Washington, DC Moffett Field, CA Phillip Ballou Eric Krotkov Deep Ocean Engineering The Robotics Institute San Leandro, CA Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA Roger Bedard Jet Propulsion Laboratory Louis J. Lanzerotti Pasadena, CA AT&T Bell Laboratories Murray Hill, NJ Geoffrey Briggs Center for Earth and Planetary Studies Paul Lowman National Air and Space Museum NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Smithsonian Institution Greenbelt, MD Washington, DC Michael Malin Robert Cannon Arizona State University Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Tempe, AZ Stanford University Harry McCai.n Stanford, CA NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Leonard David Greenbelt, MD Space Data Resources and Information Wallace A. McClure Washington, DC Westminster, CA Kevin Dowling Chris McKay Robotics Institute NASA Ames Research Center Carnegie Mellon University Moffett Field, CA Pittsburgh, PA Terry Finn John Menkins NASA Headquarters NASA Headquarters Washington, DC Washington, DC Herbert Frey Lt. Col. Eric Mettala NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Greenbelt, MD U.S. Department of Defense Washington, DC Peter Friedland Intelligent Systems Research Division David Moore NASA Ames Research Center Congressional Budget Office Moffett Field, CA Washington, DC Louis D. Friedman Douglas B. Nash The Planetary Society Jet Propulsion Laboratory Pasadena, CA Pasadena, CA vi Acknowledgments (continued) Carl B. Pilcher David R. Scott NASA Headquarters Scott Science and Technology Washington, DC Los Angeles, CA Donna Pivirotto Steven Squyres Jet Propulsion Laboratory Cornell University Pasadena, CA Ithaca, NY Ian Pryke European Space Agency Delbert Tesar University of Texas at Austin Washington, DC Austin, TX Don Rea Mitre Corp. Paul Uhlir McLean, VA National Research Council Washington, DC Eberhardt Rechtin University of Southern California Jannelle Warren-Findley Los Angeles, CA Falls Church, VA Sally Ride California Space Institute Jerry Wasserburg La Jolla, CA California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA Carl Ruoff Jet Propulsion Laboratory Dietmar Wurzel Pasadena, CA German Aerospace Research Establishment Jeffery Rosendahl and German Space Agency NASA Headquarters Washington, DC Washington, DC Maria Zuber Harrison Schmitt NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Albuquerque, NM Greenbelt, MD vii Contents Page Chapter 1. Summary . 1 INTRODUCTION . 1 WHAT IS ROBOTICS? . 2 THE HUMAN-ROBOTICS PARTNERSHIP . 3 EXPLORATION TIMETABLE . 3 MANAGEMENT OF A MISSION FROM PLANET EARTH . 4 EXPLORING AND EXPLOITING THE MOON . .. .. ... ... .......4 EXPLORING MARS. 5 AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS (A&R) RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT . 5 COST ESTIMATES . ... ........5 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COMPETITION . ......6 Chapter 2. Policy and Findings . 7 PLANETARY EXPLORATION POLICY AND NATIONAL GOALS . 10 THE "MIX" OF HUMAN CREWS AND ROBOTICS FOR EXPLORATION . 13 MANAGEMENT OF EXPLORATION . 15 RETURNING TO THE MOON . 17 EXPLORING MARS. 18 A&R RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT . 21 COST ESTIMATES . ... ... ......24 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COMPETITION . 26 Chapter 3. Human Exploration of the Moon and Mars . 29 RATIONALE FOR HUMAN EXPLORATION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM . 29 RISKS TO HUMAN LIFE IN SPACE . .. ... ... ......35 THE HUMAN-ROBOTIC PARTNERSHIP . .. ... ... ......35 ROBOTICS SUPPORT OF LUNAR EXPLORATION AND UTILIZATION . 37 ROBOTICS SUPPORT OF MARS EXPLORATION . .. ... ... .....38 STRATEGY F ORE XPLORATION . 40 MANAGING THE MISSION FROM PLANET EARTH . ... .......41 Chapter 4. Scientific Exploration and Utilization of the Moon . 49 UNDERSTANDING THE MOON . .49 THE APOLLO PROGRAM . 50 THE SOVIET LUNAR PROGRAM . 55 SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES . ..55 FUTURE ROBOTICS MISSIONS . 57 WORKING ON THE LUNAR SURFACE . ... .....61 Chapter 5. Scientific Exploration of Mars . 65 UNDERSTANDING MARS . ....65 CURRENT SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES . 68 PLANNED AND POTENTIAL ROBOTICS MISSIONS . ... .......72 Chapter 6.Automation and Robotics Research and Development . 77 AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS APPLICATIONS . 77 SPACE AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGIES . 81 TECHNOLOGY ISSUES . ... ....84 FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR A&R RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT . 89 Chapter 7. Costs of the Mission From Planet Earth . 91 COST ISSUES . 92 PAYING FOR THE MISSION FROM PLANET EARTH . ... ......95 Chapter 8. International Competition and Cooperation . ..