LEAD COMMISSIONER REPORT RENEWABLE POWER IN CALIFORNIA: STATUS AND ISSUES DECEMBER 2011 CEC‐150‐2011‐002‐LCF‐REV1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 2011 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY REPORT LEAD COMMISSIONER Robert B. Weisenmiller, Ph.D Chair Primary Authors Jim Adams Mark Hesters Fernando Pina Rizaldo Aldas Candace Hill Heather Raitt Eileen Allen Mike Kane Larry Rillera Al Alvarado Linda Kelly Rachel Salazar Grace Anderson Joel Klein Prab Sethi Kevin Barker Eric Knight David Siao Beverly Bastian Andrea Koch Connie Sichon Avtar Bining Don Kondoleon Linda Spiegel Denny Brown Mark Kootstra Margaret Sheridan Beth Chambers Pramod Kulkarni Amanda Stennick Kristy Chew Eugenia Laychak Brian Stevens Matt Coldwell Rachel MacDonald Shaelyn Strattan Miki Crowell John Mathias Sarah Taheri Pamela Doughman Michael McGuirt Angela Tanghetti David Flores Kasiana McLenaghan Marylou Taylor Sandra Fromm Mike Monasmith Chris Tooker Clare Laufenberg Gallardo Marla Mueller David Vidaver Pedro Gomez Payam Narvand Gail Wiggett Saul Gomez Sherrill Neidich Jennifer Williams Lorraine Gonzalez John Nuffer Lisa Worrall Judy Grau Michael Nyberg Rick York Mike Gravely Joe O’Hagan Zhiqin Zhang Lynette Green Ean O’Neill Kate Zocchetti Karen Griffin Garry O’Neill Eli Harland Jamie Patterson Suzanne Korosec Project Manager Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by staff of the California Energy Commission under the direction of the 2011 Integrated Energy Policy Report Lead Commissioner. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees, or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors, and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the California Energy Commission nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report. ABSTRACT Developing renewable energy in California will create thousands of jobs, build the businesses of the 21st century, increase energy independence, and protect public health. California’s Renewables Portfolio Standard requires utilities to increase the amount of renewable generation sold to customers to an average of 20 percent per year from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2013; 25 percent by December 31, 2016; and 33 percent by December 31, 2020. In addition, Governor Jerry Brown’s Clean Energy Jobs Plan identifies a goal of installing 20,000 megawatts of renewable generating capacity, including 12,000 megawatts of localized electricity generation and 8,000 megawatts of utility‐scale generation, by 2020. This report outlines progress toward each of these goals and discusses the issues the state must address to develop clean, renewable electricity generation and the transmission infrastructure needed to bring that electricity to customers as the first step toward creating a strategic plan to increase renewable generation and transmission infrastructure development in California. Keywords: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, biomass, California Independent System Operator, California Public Utilities Commission, cogeneration, competitive renewable energy zones, Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, digester gas, distributed generation, energy storage, environmental impacts, environmental justice, feed‐in tariff, financing, geothermal, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable integration, interconnection, land use planning, landfill gas, levelized cost, local government, natural gas, permitting, Public Interest Energy Research Program, Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act, Renewable Energy Action Team, Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative, renewable net short, Renewables Portfolio Standard, small hydroelectric, smart grid, solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, transmission, wind, workforce development Please use the following citation for this report: 2011. Renewable Power in California: Status and Issues. California Energy Commission, December 2011, Publication No. CEC‐150‐2011‐002‐LCF‐ REV1 i TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER 1: Introduction..................................................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER 2: Achieving California’s Renewable Electricity Goals ................................................. 31 CHAPTER 3: Environmental, Planning, and Permitting Issues ...................................................... 53 CHAPTER 4: Transmission Infrastructure Issues .............................................................................. 74 CHAPTER 5: Grid‐Level Integration Issues ..................................................................................... 100 CHAPTER 6: Distribution‐Level Integration Issues ........................................................................ 130 CHAPTER 7: Investment and Financing Issues ............................................................................... 150 CHAPTER 8: Cost Issues ..................................................................................................................... 172 CHAPTER 9: Research and Development to Support California’s Renewable Generation Goals .................................................................................................................................................................. 194 CHAPTER 10: Environmental Justice, Local Government Coordination, Workforce Development, and Public Leadership ................................................................................................. 215 LIST OF ACRONYMS ......................................................................................................................... 244 Appendix A: Renewable Generating Capacity in California .......................................................... A‐1 Appendix B: Additional Data on Renewable Percentages .............................................................. B‐1 Appendix C: Renewable Technical Potential in California ............................................................. C‐1 Appendix D: Renewable Net Short Input Variables ....................................................................... D‐1 Appendix E: Method for Setting Regional and Interim Targets for 12,000 MW of DG by 2020 E‐1 Appendix F: Description of Transmission Projects Needed to Support California Renewable Energy Mandates ................................................................................................................................... F‐1 Appendix G: Additional Information Resources for Renewable Distributed Generation Planning and Permitting Assistance ................................................................................................... G‐1 Appendix H: PIER Project Details ...................................................................................................... H‐1 ii LIST OF TABLES Table ES‐1: In‐State Renewable Capacity and Generation (2010) ...................................................... 3 Table ES‐2: Proposed Regional DG Targets by 2020 ............................................................................. 4 Table ES‐3: Preliminary Regional Targets for 8,000 Megawatts of New Renewable Capacity by 2020 ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Table ES‐4: California’s Renewable Energy Potential .......................................................................... 5 Figure ES‐1: Renewable Generation for California and Renewables Portfolio Standard Goals ..... 6 Table ES‐5: Major Transmission Projects for Interconnection and Deliverability of Renewable Generation in California .................................................................................................................. 10 Figure 1: California Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel Type, 1983‐2010 ................................ 23 Table 1: Range of Renewable Net Short Estimates for 2020 ............................................................... 34 Table 2: Preliminary Regional Targets for 8,000 Megawatts of New Renewable Capacity by 2020 ............................................................................................................................................................ 37 Table 3: Proposed Regional DG Targets by 2020 ................................................................................. 38 Figure 2: Existing Renewable Facilities in California .......................................................................... 40 Table 4: Installed In‐State Renewable Capacity Providing Electricity to California Customers . 41 Table 5: Total Renewable Generation to Serve California Load in 2010 .......................................... 42 Table 6: California’s Renewable Technical Potential ......................................................................... 43 Table 7: Renewable Projects Permitted in 2010 by California County (MW) ................................. 44 Figure 3: Renewable Generation for California and RPS Goals ........................................................ 46 Table 8: Contracts for Coal‐Fired Generation (GWh) ........................................................................