The Behaviour and Evolution of Boko Haram: A Multi-Level Analysis Solomon Timothy Anjide A Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement of the University of Lincoln for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Social and Political Sciences, College of Social Science November 2018 i Declaration I declare that this thesis has been undertaken for the sole purpose of the award of PhD International Relations at the University of Lincoln and it has not been submitted previously or concurrently for the award of any degree. This thesis is the product of my own investigation, with any other material used in writing this thesis having been fully acknowledged and referenced. I accept any errors committed by commission or omission. ii Abstract Boko Haram (BH) has transformed from a small group living in isolation to a large- scale terrorist movement. Academics and policy makers suggest that BH seeks to substitute Nigeria’s secular state with a strict Islamic system, while BH’s violent campaign has spilled over to Nigeria’s neighbouring countries in the Lake Chad region. Existing studies have suggested that socioeconomic deprivation along with religion and counter terrorism (CT) sustain BH’s violence, with these studies having concentrated on the causes and consequences of BH terrorism. Terrorist behaviour is dynamic, and thus the ever-changing nature of terrorist behaviour requires groups such as BH to be studied over time both internally and externally in order to have an in-depth understanding of a terror group. This thesis is a case study on BH. It investigates how the behaviour of BH has influenced its evolution from a small isolationist movement to a large-scale violent group. The study provides a multi-level analysis on the role of internal and external factors on the evolution of BH. The multi-level analysis is used to examine the behaviour and evolution of BH through individual, group, state, sub-national and international levels of explanations. A mixed methods case study approach is applied in examining BH and their strategic choices. These methods include documents, statistics and a qualitative technique of semi-structured interviews with some senior Nigerian government officials and experts on BH. Additionally, it employs the Most Similar System Design (MSSD) comparative method to assess the variation in BH violence. The findings of this thesis extend beyond the conventional linkage of BH to poverty, religion and illiteracy. They instead provide explanations on the strategic choices, intensity of violence and changing tactics of BH. This thesis illustrates that different aspects of terrorist behaviour determine the evolution of a terrorist group. The behaviour of terrorist groups relates to their ability to function, and without one aspect of such behaviour, other explanations will be incomplete, therefore making any investigation through a single unit simplistic. The study suggests that multi-level analysis provides a strong methodological advantage in terrorism research. Its flexibility enables the application of more theories and empirical studies for a more systematic and critical debate in terrorism research. The study recommends areas for policy actions and future research on BH. iii Acknowledgements My profound gratitude goes to my supervisors, Andrew Defty, Kaisa Hinkkainen and Adèle Langlois, whose patience, encouragement and guidance have been instrumental in my intellectual growth. I remain grateful to them for not only supporting me in the completion of my Ph.D., but for unlocking my potential and installing in me a passion for academic study. My esteem gratitude to my Ph.D. examiners, Dr. Rob Dover and Prof. Heather Hughes for their valuable suggestions towards the success of this thesis and my intellectual growth. My earnest gratitude also goes to the School of Social and Political Science for providing me with a friendly atmosphere in which I could develop in the aspects of teaching and research. I also cannot express enough thanks to Jacqui Briggs, Peter Somerville, Joshua Skozylis, Louisa Parks, Yee-Wah Foo and Sue Bond-Taylor, to mention but a few, for their encouragement and goodwill. The University of Lincoln has been kind to me. I have met a number of great friends from different countries around the world such as Yasmina Abou-Hilal, Zamira Noh, Hadiza Abdulrahman, Michael Ilevababor, Kieran Richardson, Ikenna Leornad, Abednego Jatau and numerous others whose unquantifiable levels of friendship will constantly remind me of the joy and beauty of friendship across religious, racial and ideological divides. I am appreciative of my mentors and benefactors Dr. Rose Kela, Dr. Aliyu Akwe Doma, Prof. Onje Gye-Wado, Kaisa Hinkkainen, Amb. Samuel Jimba, Gen. Mohammed Kabir Galadanchi, Barr. Labaran Magaji, Krijn Peters, Barr. Innocent Lagi, Dr. Kamaludeen Kabir Kastina, Ignatius Anjide, Juliana Shammah, Justina Anjiode, Hussein Sunadari Adamu, Architects Mustapha Bimbo Suraj and Ahmed Buba whose numerous acts of kindness have inspired me to commit myself to the service of humanity whereever I find myself. My deepest gratitude goes to my family for sponsoring my Ph.D. programme. Many thanks go to my mother Lily Anjide and my siblings John, Alex, Tessy and Mariah. My unending gratitude goes to my mentor and father Mr. Timothy Anjide, whose untiring quest for knowledge combined with humility and selfless service to humanity remains my cardinal philosophy of life. Finally, I give God the glory for blessing me through my friends, family, mentors and benefactors. iv Contents Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................... 14 1.1 Introduction............................................................................................................. 14 1.2 Research questions ..............................................................................................19 1.3 Summary of thesis ................................................................................................... 19 Chapter 2: Literature Review ................................................................................. 24 2.1 Definition of Terrorism ............................................................................................ 25 2.2 Literature review on terrorism ................................................................................. 30 2.2.1 Causes of terrorism ................................................................................................... 30 2.2.2 Consequences of terrorism ........................................................................................ 32 2.2.3 Counter terrorism...................................................................................................... 33 2.2.4 ‘Old’ versus ‘new’ terrorism ..................................................................................... 34 2.3 Literature on Boko Haram....................................................................................36 2.3.1 Cause and motivation of BH ..................................................................................... 36 2.3.2 Evolution of BH ....................................................................................................... 46 2.3.3 Emerging arguments about BH ................................................................................. 48 2.4 Literature summary ................................................................................................. 49 Chapter 3: Research Methods ............................................................................... 53 3.1 Case study on BH ..................................................................................................... 53 3.1.1 Documents ............................................................................................................... 55 3.1.2 Media sources........................................................................................................... 56 3.1.3 Semi-structured elite interviews ................................................................................ 57 3.2 Use of statistics ........................................................................................................... 62 3.3 Comparative analysis: most similar system design (MSSD) .......................................... 63 3.4 Chapter conclusion ...................................................................................................... 64 Chapter 4: Leadership Influence ............................................................................ 65 4.1 Mohammed Yusuf and the creation of BH................................................................ 69 4.2 Maman Nur ............................................................................................................. 74 4.3 The rise of Abubakar Shekau and the emergence of factions within BH .................... 75 4.4 Mahamat Daoud ...................................................................................................... 78 4.5 Abu Musab al-Barnawi ............................................................................................. 79 4.6 Other key leadership figures .................................................................................... 80 4.7 Implications of leadership change on BH .................................................................. 84 4.8 Chapter conclusions ................................................................................................