THE WATER CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: EXPLORING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WATER INSECURITY AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY Fatima AlEmadi Mentored by Dr. Gerd Nonneman A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Award of Honors in International Politics Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service in Qatar Georgetown University Spring 2021 1 CHAPTER 1 .............................................................................................................................................. 3 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 3 1. RATIONALE AND RESEARCH QUESTION ............................................................................................... 3 2. DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Water Insecurity (IV) .............................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Water Governance................................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Political Instability (DV) ....................................................................................................................... 6 3. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................................................. 7 3.1 Political Instability........................................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Water Insecurity ............................................................................................................................. 13 3.3 Water Governance and its Politics .......................................................................................... 16 3.4 (In)stability and water in the context of the Arab Spring .................................................. 21 4. METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................................... 25 4.1 Measuring Water Insecurity .............................................................................................................. 27 4.2 Measuring Political Instability ...................................................................................................... 30 4.3 Water Governance ............................................................................................................................. 32 4.4 Survey ....................................................................................................................................................... 34 4.5 Choice of Cases ..................................................................................................................................... 35 4.6 Comparative Design .......................................................................................................................... 36 CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................................................................38 SYRIA .......................................................................................................................................................38 1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................ 38 1. WATER INSECURITY .............................................................................................................................. 39 1.1 Survey Findings .................................................................................................................................. 40 1.2 Overview.................................................................................................................................................. 42 2. WATER GOVERNANCE .......................................................................................................................... 51 2.1 Informal Considerations ..................................................................................................................... 52 2.2 Formal Water Governance ................................................................................................................ 55 3. STRUCTURAL FEATURES ...................................................................................................................... 58 4. WATER INSECURITY AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY ................................................................... 65 4.1 Following 2007: Drought and the Arab Spring .......................................................................... 67 4.2 Intermediary Factors ........................................................................................................................... 72 4.3 State Response ....................................................................................................................................... 78 5. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................ 80 CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................................................................82 EGYPT .....................................................................................................................................................82 1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................ 82 2. WATER INSECURITY .............................................................................................................................. 83 2 1.1 Overview.................................................................................................................................................. 85 1.2 Survey findings ...................................................................................................................................... 91 3. WATER GOVERNANCE .......................................................................................................................... 95 3.1 Formal Water Governance ................................................................................................................ 95 3.2 Informal Governance .......................................................................................................................... 98 4. STRUCTURAL FEATURES ................................................................................................................... 103 5. WATER INSECURITY AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY ................................................................ 111 4.1 The Arab Spring .................................................................................................................................. 118 4.2 Survey Findings ................................................................................................................................... 122 4.3 State Response ..................................................................................................................................... 123 6. CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................................... 124 CHAPTER 4 ......................................................................................................................................... 125 WATER INSECURITY AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY................................................... 125 1. GENERAL RELATIONSHIP ................................................................................................................. 125 2. DIRECT AND INDIRECT LINKAGES ................................................................................................. 127 3. THE STATE’S ROLE............................................................................................................................. 131 4. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY .............................................................................................. 134 5. POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND WATER INSECURITY ................................................................ 137 6. CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................................... 140 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................... 142 APPENDICES ..................................................................................................................................... 147 APPENDIX 1 ..................................................................................................................................................... 147 APPENDIX 2 ..................................................................................................................................................... 150 APPENDIX 3 ..................................................................................................................................................... 153 APPENDIX 4 ....................................................................................................................................................