USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal CUWS Outreach Journal 1183 18 September 2015 Feature Item: “The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017”. Authored by Eric Heginbotham, Michael Nixon, Forrest E. Morgan, Jacob Heim, Jeff Hagen, Sheng Li, Jeffrey G. Engstrom, Martin C. Libicki, Paul DeLuca, David A. Shlapak, David R. Frelinger, Burgess Laird, Kyle Brady, and Lyle J. Morris; published by RAND Corporation; 2015; 430 pages. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR300/RR392/RAND_RR392.pdf Over the past two decades, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. In many areas, its technology and the skill levels lag behind those of the United States, but it has narrowed the gap. Moreover it enjoys the advantage of proximity in most plausible Asian conflict scenarios and has developed capabilities that capitalize on that advantage. How would Chinese and U.S. forces perform in operations against one another in such a conflict? What is the balance of power? What are the prospects for deterrence, and what can be done to strengthen them? This volume examines relative U.S. and Chinese military capabilities in ten operational areas, covering the air and missile, maritime, space and counterspace, cyber, and nuclear domains. It looks at trends across time, from 1996 to the present, as well as potential developments through 2017. And it examines the impact of distance and geography on military power by assessing capabilities in the context of two scenarios at different distances from China: one centered on Taiwan and the other on the Spratly Islands. The research should be of interest to defense analysts, Asian foreign policy and security specialists, policymakers, military officers and anyone interested in Chinese military modernization and the balance of power in Asia. U.S. Nuclear Weapons 1. Global Strike Aim: Update Nuke Arsenal U.S. Counter-WMD 1. CSTO Leaders Say Building up of Missile Defence Systems Destabilizes Global Situation 2. Missile Defense Not Enough: Pentagon Open to Preemptive Strikes U.S. Arms Control 1. Source: Cutting-Edge Ballistic Missile to Be Fielded with Russian Missile Force in 2016 2. Source: Flight Development Tests of Russia’s Sarmat ICBM to Start in Third Quarter of 2016 Homeland Security/The Americas 1. Homeland Security Demonstrates Nuclear Forensics Capabilities 2. Analysis: RAND Says US Facing Tough Fight with China Asia/Pacific 1. Long March 3B Conducts another Secretive Launch 2. N. Korea Vows to Launch Rocket 3. N.Korea Restarts Nuclear Reactor, Warns US 4. North Korea ‘Hot Cell’ Unit Could Mean Better, Larger Nuclear Bombs: U.S. Experts 5. China Treads Peaceful Path after DPRK Announces Nuclear Move 6. Australia Defends Opposition to Global Push for Nuclear Weapons Ban Issue No.1183, 18 September 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Europe/Russia 1. All Chemical Weapons Stocks Destroyed at Fourth of 7 Russian Depots 2. Jeremy Corbyn Wins Labour Leadership Contest and Vows "Fightback" 3. Trident: Defence Expert Says It Would Be 'Unwise' for SNP to Base Second Independence Referendum on Opposition to Nuclear Weapons 4. Russia Develops Directed-Energy Weapons 5. Cameron: NATO, Trident Nukes Protecting UK from Global Danger 6. Jeremy Corbyn Softens Position on Trident and EU to Placate Labour Concerns Middle East 1. Iran Says It Found Vast Quantities of Uranium 2. Iran Hopes 'PMD' Resolved by End of 2015: Salehi 3. IAEA Chief: Iran to Implement Additional Transparency Measures 4. Some Iranian Nuclear Program Control Measures May Be Cancelled in 2-3 Years — Source 5. Moscow Accused of Obstructing Syrian Chemical Weapons Dossier 6. Zarif: Iran Welcomes China's Role in Redesigning Arak Reactor 7. Commander: IRGC Air Force Capable of Setting Fire to All Enemies' Interests 8. Iran in Talks with Russia on Exchanging Enriched, Natural Uranium, Developing Centrifuges 9. Iran-IAEA Arrangements on Parchin to Remain Confidential: Official 10. UN Sanctions Against Iran to Remain Until IAEA Affirms Nuclear Deal Applied 11. Experts Urge Release of IAEA Inspections Details of Iran Site Commentary 1. Don’t Forget the Missiles 2. Nuclear Disarmament and Nuclear Order 3. Iran’s Nuclear Ballistic Missile Threat Not on the Horizon 4. A Realist Millennial’s View of Nuclear Weapons Return to Top Air Force Times – Tysons Corner, VA Global Strike Aim: Update Nuke Arsenal This is one in a series of stories featuring Air Force leaders who spoke to Air Force Times about their challenges in advance of the Air Force Association National Convention Sept. 14-16. By Phillip Swarts, Staff writer September 12, 2015 After a tumultuous 2014 that saw accusations of misconduct by missileers, new Global Strike Command leader Gen. Robin Rand says his airmen are looking ahead. “We’re moving forward,” he said. “What I’ve seen are proud, motivated airmen who understand the calling of their profession. They are the best at what they do, and I’m honored to lead them.” Rand, who previously led Air Education and Training Command, took command at Global Strike in July. He came on board after the command had faced criticism for a string of high-profile accusations of misconduct, including a Pentagon investigation that found a group of officers were cheating on proficiency exams. Indeed, Rand is the first four-star to command Global Strike since the end of the Cold War, a move widely regarded as an attempt to get the command back on its feet. Now, Rand said he’s focused on the mission ahead. Issue No.1183, 18 September 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal Chief among those issues will be tackling an aging nuclear arsenal, with bombers and missiles still in service more than 20 years after the end of the Cold War. Rand said Global Strike initiatives include replacing support equipment in Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launch control centers, and looking for replacements for two support vehicle systems that carry missiles from bases to launch facilities. In October, the command will take responsibility for a group of B-1 bombers from Dyess Air Force Base in Texas and Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota as part of a Pentagon effort to consolidate nuclear operations. And Global Strike will start overseeing the 377th Air Base Wing out of Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico and its Underground Munitions Storage Complex, the world’s largest underground storage facility for nuclear weapons. On the horizon is a new bomber designed to replace the B-52 and B-1, and eventually the B-2. The “strategic deterrence” the Long Range Strike-Bomber will provide will be “vitally important for the nation’s defense,” Rand said. http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/military/tech/2015/09/12/global-strike-aim-update-nuke- arsenal/71888948/ Return to Top TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia CSTO Leaders Say Building up of Missile Defence Systems Destabilizes Global Situation The CSTO leaders called to observe the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and reiterated their commitment to their good-will liabilities to hold talks on efficient measures to stop the arms race September 15, 2015 DUSHANBE, September 15. /TASS/. Actions taken by certain countries and blocs to build up missile defense systems destabilizes the situation in the world, leaders of the countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) said in a statement after their summit in Dushanbe on Tuesday. "We, heads of state of the CSTO member countries stand for preventing an arms race. We believe that unilateral and unlimited steps taken by certain states or groups of states to build up missile defense systems are harmful to international security and destabilize the situation in the world," the document says. The CSTO leaders called to observe the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and reiterated their commitment to their good-will liabilities to hold talks on efficient measures to stop the arms race in the immediate future. http://tass.ru/en/politics/821154 Return to Top Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Missile Defense Not Enough: Pentagon Open to Preemptive Strikes 17 September 2015 Ahead of the release of a Joint Staff study of US missile defenses, the Pentagon is looking at new ways to stop missile attacks, including preemptive strikes, the head of the Army Space and Missile Defense Command said. Current missile defenses rely on shooting down the incoming weapon – and usually when it is relatively close to the target. Issue No.1183, 18 September 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Lieutenant General David Mann on Wednesday said the Pentagon is now more open to discussing the possibility of taking an offensive approach "left of launch," or before enemy missiles are fired. "When you talk about left of launch and taking actions in a proactive manner, that comes fraught with a lot of policy issues," Mann said. "[But now] we're seeing a lot more openness to really discuss that especially at the department level, to really look across the whole spectrum of options." "I see a lot more interest and willingness to discuss left of launch than I've ever seen before," Mann added.