RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Aaron Bonanno and Chris Martell Training • Consulting • Engineering • Publications creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L COMPANY PROFILE Established in 1998, GSES® leads Australia in renewable energy engineering, training and consultancy. - Official Australian - System testing and - Grid Connected PV, - Grid Connected PV Registered Training commissioning Stand-Alone PV and Systems Design and Organisation (RTO) hybrid system design Installation - Tender specification and - Face to face practical evaluation - Feasibility studies - Stand Alone Power and online training Systems Design and - System compliance - DNSP liaison for Grid Installation - Grid Connect PV (GCPV), inspections for the Clean Connected systems Stand-Alone, GC with Energy Regulator and - News releases, Technical Batteries, Solar private business Articles and much more. Fundamentals, etc. creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L CONTENTS • Status of the Renewable Energy Sector • Australia • Global • Current Industry Direction • Policy • Economic Drivers • Disruptive Technology • What is the Future of the Industry • New Technology • New Energy Markets creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L INTRODUCTION United Nations World Human Population Estimated Global Energy Consumption Per Capita Current Consumption In Relatable Terms: 80Gj/person/year ~= 60kWh/person/day ~= 390TWh Globally/day (2010 figures) which is roughly the same amount of energy needed to fly from Sydney to LA 100,000 times (…on an A380) creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA Large Scale Generating Power Stations As of 2013 there were 394 registered large scale generation systems in Australia: • 101 Hydro • 78 Wind • 68 Solar • 62 Landfill Gas • 85 Other *Clean Energy Regulator Large Scale Energy Generation As of 2013, large scale renewables have accounted for approximately 17 TWh of energy production. This equates to about 8% of all electricity produced in Australia according to the Australian Energy Regulator *Clean Energy Regulator creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA Small Scale Installations As of 2013 there were 2M registered small scale installations in Australia *Clean Energy Regulator Estimated Generation and As of 2013, energy efficient hot water displaced about Displacement 2.5 TWh of energy and small scale renewables generated about 4TWh of energy. In total, small scale generation/displacement equates to about 3% of all electricity produced in Australia according to the Australian Energy Regulator *Clean Energy Regulator creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA Wind Power Government Policy – The Renewable Energy Target and emissions reduction target are expected to drive the development of wind power in Australia Resource – Australia has some of the best wind resource in the world, however much of it is localised in the western, south western, southern and south eastern coastal areas Grid Constraints – lack of capacity or availability may limit further growth of wind in some areas with good wind resource Variability – intermittency imposes an inherent upper limit on wind energy, but this is not *Sustainable Energy Development Authority of NSW expected to be reached until the projected 2030 penetration level creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA Wind Power - 2009 Wind Penetration level was 4TWh representing 1.5% of total electricity generation - Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics has projected a total penetration of 44TWh by 2030 which would represent 12.1% of total forecast electricity generation *Capital Wind Farm (Lake George, NSW) creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA Hydro Power - Currently the main source of renewable energy generation in Australia - 2008 Hydro Penetration level was 12TWh representing 4.5% of total electricity generation - Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics has projected that hydro will only increase by 0.2%/pa over the next 20 years to 13TWh *ABARE creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA Hydro Power - According to Geoscience Australia the majority of Australia's economically feasible hydro energy resource has already been harnessed. - Through the use of micro-hydro and pumping stations, capacity can be increased, however as Australia is the driest inhabited continent on Earth other RE technology must be used. - Wind it set to take over hydro as the main renewable energy generator in the next 20 years *Snowy Hydro creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA Solar PV Power - Enough solar irradiation falls on Australia each year to satisfy 10,000 times its annual energy demand - ABARE predicted in 2008 that annual generation would reach 4TWh by 2030, however 4TWh were generated from PV this year - Cost competitiveness and industry maturity combined with policy incentives, falling demand and increased utility tariff rates have rocketed the industry forward. - As an indicator of price reduction, global average module price has fallen by 80% since 2009 ($3.25/watt in 2009 to $0.65/watt in 2013) *Australian Bureau of Meteorology creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA Solar PV Power - As Australia has removed its renewable energy incentives (State Feed in Tariffs (FIT) and Renewable Energy Credit (REC now called STC/LGC) multiplier the market has shifted towards commercial and utility - Fiscal year 2013 saw the flattening of the residential sector. Commercial/Utility accounted for about 5% of the market prior to 2012 compared to about 20% this year. - Continuing trends and the emergence of energy storage should keep the PV market healthy into the next decade *Greenough River Solar Farm creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA Solar Thermal • Kogan – 44MW compact linear Fresnel reflector (CLFR) due to be complete end of 2014 Market Share: • NSW – 30% • Mildura 1.5MW-stage 2, plans for • WA – 26% 100MW stage three • QLD – 19% • 50% residential solar hot water - 50% space heating, swimming pools, commercial (Source: Australian Energy Resource Assessment 2013) creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA Geothermal Power Landfill Gas Power - Birdville 80kW Geothermal Power Station owned by Ergon - New project in Cooper Basin, SA by Geodynamics Ltd. - Good potential in select areas *Australian Geothermal Energy Association Wave/Tidal Power *Ecogeneration – Ti Tree LGP - Tamala Park and Red Hill, WA - Perth Wave Energy by Carnegie amongst the few active power will be the worlds fist grid generating landfills (combined connected commercial scale 9MW) wave power system - Other projects in the pipeline - Applications for desalinated but limited by location and water and power for remote resource communities - Very low Levelised Cost Of - Pilot project for other types of *Australian Renewable Energy Agency Electricity (LCOE) generation wave power creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA *Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA *Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY GLOBAL *REN21 (Renewables 2014 Global Status Report) - Solar PV is the most ubiquitous and active sector and still only represents 0.7% of energy consumption creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY GLOBAL Wind Power *Global Wind Energy Council - Wind power has been increasing at a relatively steady rate over the past two decades - It is interesting to note that 2013 was the first year that there was not an increase in the capacity of wind generation installed above the year before it - The decline however is mostly due to US policy which encouraged a record number of installations in 2012. Despite the decline in growth, industry experts are still bullish on wind. creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY GLOBAL Hydro Power *Hydro and Dams World Atlas 2012 - Unlike Australia, the rest of the world is only using approximately 30% of its total Hydro Power potential - China and the rest of Asia account for nearly 60% of all hydro potential creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L RENEWABLE ENERGY GLOBAL Solar PV Power *IEA-PVPS T1-22:2013 - The global Solar PV market has doubled six times since 2004 - Australia has largely followed the trend but is still outpaced by many other markets creating sustainable change