UNIVERSITY OF THE AEGEAN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Development of an interactive platform for green transport policy evaluation by IOANNIS TSOUROS Submitted to the Department of Shipping, Trade and Transport in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in the field of Travel Behavior Modeling and Decision Sciences PhD Committee: PhD Extented Committee: Amalia Polydoropoulou Evangelos Sambracos Professor Professor Department of Shipping, Trade Department of Economics and Transport University of Piraeus University of the Aegean Nikitas Nikitakos Seraphim Kapros Professor Professor Department of Shipping, Trade and Transport Department of Shipping, Trade University of the Aegean and Transport University of the Aegean Constantinos Antoniou Professor Konstadinos G. Goulias Technical University of Munich Professor Department of Geography Anna Kotrikla University of California, Assistant Professor Santa Barbara (UCSB) Department of Shipping, Trade and Transport University of the Aegean Konstadinos G. Goulias Professor Department of Geography University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) Seraphim Kapros Professor, Department of Shipping, Trade and Transport University of the Aegean Amalia Polydoropoulou Professor, Department of Shipping, Trade and Transport University of the Aegean ΠΑΝΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΙΟ ΑΙΓΑΙΟΥ ΣΧΟΛΗ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ ΤΗΣ ΔΙΟΙΚΗΣΗΣ ΔΙΔΑΚΤΟΡΙΚΗ ΔΙΑΤΡΙΒΗ Αξιολόγηση πράσινων πολιτικών στις μεταφορές με τη χρήση οικονομετρικών προτύπων και προσομοίωσης ΙΩΑΝΝΗΣ ΤΣΟΥΡΟΣ για την απόκτηση διδακτορικού διπλώµατος του Τµήµατος Ναυτιλίας και Επιχειρηµατικών Υπηρεσιών Συµβουλευτική Επιτροπή: Επταµελής Επιτροπή: Αµαλία Πολυδωροπούλου Ευάγγελος Σαμπράκος Καθηγήτρια Καθηγητής Τµήµα Ναυτιλίας και Τμήμα Οικονομικής Επιστήμης Επιχειρηµατικών Υπηρεσιών Πανεπιστήμιο Πειραιώς Πανεπιστήµιο Αιγαίου Νικήτας Νικητάκος Καθηγητής Σεραφείμ Κάπρος Τµήµα Ναυτιλίας και Καθηγητής Επιχειρηµατικών Υπηρεσιών Τµήµα Ναυτιλίας και Πανεπιστήµιο Αιγαίου Επιχειρηµατικών Υπηρεσιών Πανεπιστήµιο Αιγαίου Κωνσταντίνος Αντωνίου Καθηγητής Κωνσταντινος Γκουλίας Technical University of Munich Καθηγήτης Τμήμα Γεωγραφίας Άννα Κοτρίκλα, Πανεπιστήμιο California – Santa Επίκουρη Καθηγήτρια Barbara Τµήµα Ναυτιλίας και Επιχειρηµατικών Υπηρεσιών Πανεπιστήµιο Αιγαίου Κωνσταντινος Γκουλίας Καθηγήτης Τμήμα Γεωγραφίας Πανεπιστήμιο California – Santa Bar- bara Σεραφείµ Κάπρος Καθηγητής Τµήµα Ναυτιλίας και Επιχειρηµατικών Υπηρεσιών Πανεπιστήµιο Αιγαίου Αµαλία Πολυδωροπούλου Καθηγήτρια Τµήµα Ναυτιλίας και Επιχειρηµατικών Υπηρεσιών Πανεπιστήµιο Αιγαίου 4 © Copyright © Ιωάννης Τσούρος, 2018 Με επιφύλαξη παντός δικαιώματος. All rights reserved. Απαγορεύεται η αντιγραφή, αποθήκευση και διανομή της παρούσας εργασίας, εξ ολοκλήρου ή τμήματος αυτής, για εμπορικό σκοπό. Επιτρέπεται η ανατύπωση, αποθήκευση και διανομή για σκοπό μη κερδοσκοπικό, εκπαιδευτικής ή ερευνητικής φύσης, υπό την προϋπόθεση να αναφέρεται η πηγή προέλευσης και να διατηρείται το παρόν μήνυμα. Ερωτήματα που αφορούν τη χρήση της εργασίας για κερδοσκοπικό σκοπό πρέπει να απευθύνονται προς τον συγγραφέα. Οι απόψεις και τα συμπεράσματα που περιέχονται σε αυτό το έγγραφο εκφράζουν τον συγγραφέα και δεν πρέπει να ερμηνευθεί ότι αντιπροσωπεύουν τις επίσημες θέσεις του Πανεπιστημίου Αιγαίου. Επιβλέπουσα διδακτορικής διατριβής…………………………………………………………… Αμαλία Πολυδωροπούλου, Καθηγήτρια 5 6 “The story so far: In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move” -Douglas Adams, The hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy 7 8 “Philosophers have hitherto only interpreted the world in various ways; the point is to change it.” -Karl Marx, Eleven Theses on Feuerbach 9 10 Ευχαριστίες 11 Abstract Climate change is one of the most prominent concerns for the future of humanity in the 21st century. The presence of humanity in the planet may be viewed as precarious, especially when considering the adverse effects of human activity and development. The current scenario predictions for year 2100 is a 4°C temperature growth. A 4 degree change has not happened in the global climate since 20.000 BC. Growing emissions from the use of fossil fuels negatively affects a series of environmental factors and is affects human life from every-day quality of life to long- term health effects, macroeconomic change, movement in human population, social equity and of course, the quality of the environement and life as a whole. A major contributor of these emissions is the transportation sector. For this reason, a multitude of international and national organizations have proposed an answer to the growing emissions, which can be grouped under the term sustainable or “green” transportation. This thesis explores the notion of green, sustainable transportation in depth. The thesis creates an innovative framework for the analysis of decision-making process in transport and activity related matters and it designs and crafts an interactive policy assesment tool that is based on econometric modelling. The econometric modelling is done in three different tiers, the everyday rhythms tier, that is concerned with the everyday activity and transport choices of individuals and how their lifestyle can affect these choices, the light infrastructure tier that explores the effect of active transport friendly interventions in the transport system via measurable key performance indicators and the future fleet purchase tier that provides insight into the future fleet mixture and the effect it will have on the emissions and fuel cost. The daily rhtyhms tier includes the effect of lifestyle by comparing the sample from collected data in Chios island to a database from Athens, Greece. This comparison effectively demostrates the heterogeneity of the two areas, the differences in spatial and temporal choices and the effect that lifestyle has on them. Policy-wise it presents justification for tailor-made, location-based solutions and careful consideration of norms, rhythms and lifestyle choices of the study area when applying policy bundles. The chapter discussing the effect of active transport promoting measures uses a simulation of the study area to measure the effect of the creation of bike lanes and the pedestrianization of certain links in the study area. The analysis provides 12 measurable outcome through the usage of various KPIs, such as passenger kilometers, share of active transport, daily accidents and traffic levels. The third analysis tier is concerned with future fleet purchase. It utilizes a menu- based, build-your-own, experiment approach allowing survey respondents to create their ideal vehicle using various attributes (including alternative fuel and automation level) while presenting a reasonable pricing to them. The analysis is conducted using a hybrid choice model, with latent variables aiming to reduce uncertainty and errors in the decrypting of the decision-making process. The thesis also provides insight into the creation, design and implementation of the policy platform tool. The tool is interactive in the sense that the user can control various variables and view the output, comparing the different policy measures and scenarios. It is coded in R and developed as a webpage, in a user-friendly user interface that does not require special understanding to operate. The thesis uses a sample of 1288, roughly 2% of the population of individuals from the island of Chios, Greece. The data collection is realized through a series of electronic questionnaires including a household and an individual questionnaire, a stated-preference experiment, an activity diary and accompanied by GPS devices to assist the activity diary. The contribution of the thesis can be found on several topics. First, the thesis explores the notion of sustainable transport and the human behavior that is related to it using a multi-tier analysis that spans from every-day life of individuals to future, long-term decisions. Secondly, it uses a series of analytical tools to answer the research questions, innovative econometric models, transport simulation and a in- house developed interactive decision-making tool. It is a spherical exploration of the available analytical tools, each of which used provides the specific insight for which it was used. Additionally, the case study that is conducted in an insular, island area provides insight into the behavior, choices and particularities of an area that smaller scale, smoother interventions may be more succesful than abrupt, sudden changes. The lifestyle of the study area plays a significant role in the conducted analysis. Findings from this analysis contribute to the transferability of models. Finally, the thesis provides useful insight into various policy measures that should be considered for changing the human behavior, attracting more citizens to using sustainable means of transport and improving the stanard of living while minimizing the external cost of transportation. 13 Keywords: econometric modelling, green transport, sustainability, transport policy, decision-making, insular areas, island areas, latent variables, latent classes, hybrid choice modelling, active transportation, cycling, walking, alternative fuels. PhD Thesis Supervisor: Amalia Polydoropoulou. Title: Professor, Vice-Rector of Research, Development, Finance and Infrastructure of the University of the Aegean 14 Περίληψη στα ελληνικά Η κλιματική αλλαγή είναι μια από τις σημαντικότερες ανησυχίες για το μέλλον της ανθρωπότητας τον 21ο αιώνα. Ακόμα και η παρουσία της ανθρωπότητας στον πλανήτη μπορεί να θεωρηθεί επισφαλής,