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The Turkish Model, the Double-Security Dilemma, and the Political Reproduction of State Polities in the Middle East Victoria Dimitri ARAJ Submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Faculty of Management, Law and Social Sciences University of Bradford 2018 Abstract Victoria Dimitri Araj The Turkish Model, the Double-Security Dilemma, and the Political Reproduction of State Polities in the Middle East Keywords: alliance-building, Turkish foreign policy, Islamic neoliberalism, Justice and Development Party, Turkish domestic politics Conceptually the aims of this thesis are to show the salient features of the political reproduction of states as a necessity for their survival as they continually face a double-security dilemma in the neoliberal era. Empirically this thesis examines Turkey’s ruling party from 2002 to 2015. The Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) maintained authority by mitigating the polities and actors that posed vertical and horizontal competition to their power (the double-security dilemma of domestic and international threats faced by state rulers). To outcompete and absorb its rivals, the AKP maintained a post-Islamist alliance-building model of political reproduction through a globalized Islamic neoliberal authority pattern until 2011. This became popularized as the ‘Turkish Model’, a model of political reproduction framed as suitable for other Muslim-majority states. The findings from data analysis show that to maintain the constitutive sovereignty of the Turkish state, the AKP built a post-Islamist hegemony. i Furthermore, this thesis explores how the AKP horizontally built a pluralist vision of neo-ottomanism enabling their navigation of the international political system. Their ‘zero-problems’ foreign policy was the cornerstone of building regional liberal peace. This policy was the basis of the AKP’s maintenance of functional sovereignty until the ‘Arab Spring’. Yet, the new double-security dilemma that emerged through the ‘Arab Spring’ not only threatened the existence of post-Islamism within Turkey, but the existence of the ‘Turkish Model’ itself. The AKP then moved towards a fortifying pattern of authority to shield both themselves and the Republic from emergent threats. ii Dedication For my grandmothers, Audrey Maalouf and Victoria Saba Araj. iii Acknowledgements Firstly, my gratitude must go to my inspiring supervisors Dr. Afshin Shahi and Professor Behrooz Morvaridi. Their support has been invaluable to me. Within the University of Bradford, I also must thank Dr. Dorothy Spencer, Nisa Almas and Sue Adamson for their unconditional support, care and belief in bringing out the best in me. I also appreciate those who have helped me through the years whether that be through administration or academic skills: Michele Mozley, Sandra Hall, Margaret Haldane, Dr. David Lewis, Professor Caroline Hughes and Dr. Russell Delderfield. Secondly, I must thank my family for their unconditional love and kindness. My sister Serena who is my entire world, my encouraging and warm-hearted mother and father Isabelle and Dimitri who have gone to the moon and stars and back for me, and my grandfathers David Maalouf and Judeh Araj who taught me aspiration, generosity and sumud. Special thanks must also go to my extended family, particularly my aunt Nadira Araj and my cousins Raneen Al-Arja, Fida Mousa and Magda Campo. Finally, my gratitude goes to my friends who have been like family to me: John and Pauline Davison, Dr. Fares Jabr and the Byrnes (particularly Jessica and Becky). My friends Gordon Shand, Anan Quzmar, Matt Scholey, Nisreen Abu Hunaina, Liz McNielle, Yacoub Sabatin, Dr. Lamia Zafrani, Malaika Reza and Noreen Fatima have been so far, yet so near whilst I have iv undertaken this path of educational empowerment. Those who have been near who have helped me and undertaken this PhD journey with me include Dr. Ronak Olfati, Dr. Pamela Nzabampema, Dr. Ananilea Nkya and Mark O’Shea. Finally, I would like to note that the guidance of all my friends from Istanbul plus Amie from Mosaic, Dr. Magid Shihade and Dr. Ayşe Betül Çelik were key to the completion of this project. This project was funded by my parents, the Marie Curie European Commission Sustainable Peacebuilding Project through Sabancı University and the Allan and Nesta Ferguson Charitable Trust. v Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................... i Dedication ................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ..................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ........................................................................................ vi List of Figures .............................................................................................. x List of Tables ............................................................................................... xi List of Images ............................................................................................. xii Abbreviations ............................................................................................ xiii Chapter One: Introduction to the ‘Turkish Model’ and the Political Reproduction Of State Polities ................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 1.2 The ‘Turkish Model’ ............................................................................... 7 1.3 Constructivist Polity Approaches to Historical Realism ....................... 10 1.4 Research Summary ............................................................................ 11 Chapter Two: Political Reproduction and the Double-Security Dilemma of State Polities .......................................................................................... 16 2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................... 16 2.2 Constructivist Ontologies for Middle Eastern Studies ......................... 18 2.3 The Genesis of the Theoretical Framework of this Study: Reviewing Constructivist Historical Realism ............................................................... 24 Polities and Political Change .................................................................. 24 Historical Realism .................................................................................. 32 A Constructivist Polity based Approach to Historical Realism ................ 38 Research Framework and Analysis ....................................................... 43 Some Further Remarks on Identity, Loyalty, Political Membership and Ideology ................................................................................................. 48 The State, the Regime, the Government, the Governing Party and the Polity in Constructivist Historical Realism .............................................. 50 2.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................... 52 vi Chapter Three: Researching the ‘Turkish Model’: An Alliance-building Case of Political Reproduction? ............................................................... 55 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................... 55 3.2 The Significance of this Study ............................................................. 56 3.3 Methodology ....................................................................................... 58 3.4 Data Collection And Research Method ............................................... 60 3.5 Research Method Limitations .............................................................. 65 3.6 Ethical Considerations ........................................................................ 66 3.7 Author’s Reflections ............................................................................ 66 3.8 Research Question ............................................................................. 67 3.9 Conclusion .......................................................................................... 69 Chapter Four: Arrows of Change: Kemalism and the Roots of the ‘Turkish Model’ ........................................................................................... 70 4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................... 70 4.2 Theoretical Literature on the ‘Turkish Model’ ...................................... 73 4.3 The Late Ottoman Period .................................................................... 80 The Young Ottomans, c. 1839-1902 ...................................................... 80 The Young Turks, c. 1902-1918 ............................................................. 83 The Rise of Ethnonationalism in the Ottoman Empire, c. 1909-1918 ..... 86 War and Peace c.19 ............................................................................. 91 Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, 19 May 1881–10 November 1938 .................... 94 4.4 The First Republic ............................................................................