Risk Analysis for 2019 Risk Analysis for 2019 Plac Europejski 6, 00-844 Warsaw, Poland T +48 22 205 95 00 F +48 22 205 95 01 [email protected] www.frontex.europa.eu Warsaw, February 2019 Risk Analysis Unit Frontex reference number: 1218 / 2019 Cover photo: Border guards on patrol – Indalo Operation © Frontex, 2018 – Francesco Malavolta All rights reserved. Paper version: PDF version: TT-05-18-089-EN-C TT-05-18-089-EN-N ISBN 978-92-9471-316-2 ISBN 978-92-9471-315-5 doi:10.2819/224322 doi:10.2819/86682 FPI18.0143 DISCLAIMERS This is a Frontex staff working document. This publication or its contents do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Frontex concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. All maps and charts included in this report are the sole property of Frontex and any unauthorised use is prohibited. Frontex disclaims any liability with respect to the boundaries, names and designations used on the maps. WThroughout the report, references to Kosovo* are marked with an asterisk to indicate that this designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Frontex Risk Analysis for 2019 has been prepared by the Frontex Risk Analysis Unit. During the course of developing this product, many colleagues at Frontex and outside contributed to it and their assistance is hereby acknowledged with gratitude. 2 of 52 Frontex · Risk Analysis for 2019 Table of contents 1. Preface 6 2. Summary 8 3. Introduction 11 4. Methodology 12 5. Situational analysis of 2018 15 5.1. Surveillance: Overview 16 5.2. Border checks: Clandestine entry 18 5.3. Border checks: Refusals of entry 19 5.4. Border checks: Fraudulent documents 20 5.5. Situation of asylum in the EU by EASO 22 5.6. Illegal stayers and arrested people smugglers 24 5.7. In the EU: Returns 25 6. Featured analyses 27 6.1. Interviews of migrants 28 6.2. Children in migration: overview of arrivals at the external borders in 2018 30 6.3. Making return data more useful and an outlook for 2019 34 6.4. From crisis response to preparedness: changing priorities in Member States’ migration policy 36 7. Outlook and conclusions 38 8. Statistical annex 40 3 of 52 Frontex · Risk Analysis for 2019 4 of 52 Frontex · Risk Analysis for 2019 List of acronyms used BCP border-crossing point CRI common risk indicator EASO European Asylum Support Office EASO EPS European Asylum Support Office Early Warning and Preparedness System EC European Commission EDF European Union Document-Fraud EDF-RAN European Union Document-Fraud Risk Analysis Network EMN European Migration Network EU European Union EU+ 28 EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland Eurodac European Dactyloscopy Eurojust European Union’s Judicial Cooperation Unit Europol European Police Office Eurostat Statistical Office of the European Union FRAN Frontex Risk Analysis Network Frontex European Border and Coast Guard Agency (formerly European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union) FTF foreign terrorist fighter ICJ International Court of Justice ID identification document IOM International Organization for Migration JO Joint Operation MRCC Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre MS EU Member State NGO non-governmental organisation SAC Schengen-Associated Country SAR search and rescue UK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNSCR United Nations Security Council resolution 5 of 52 Frontex · Risk Analysis for 2019 Portuguese Navy on patrol – Themis Operation, 2018 © Frontex 1. Preface In 2018, the number of detections of illegal The Eastern Mediterranean saw only migratory flows, but also for the effec- border-crossings reached its lowest level slightly fewer detections than the West- tive identification of vulnerable groups. in five years, but migratory pressure re- ern Mediterranean route. With 56 561 il- Checks at the external borders are one mained relatively high at the EU’s exter- legal border-crossings, the pressure was of the main safeguards of the Schengen nal borders. The total figure fell 27 % from 34 % higher than in the preceding year Area. Frontex monitors Europe’s borders the previous year to 150 114 and was 92 % be- due to the increase in land crossings 24 hours a day, seven days a week, help- low the peak of the migratory crisis in 2015. from Turkey to Greece. ing the EU face challenges and threats This was in large part due to the dramatic Frontex, the European Border and at its borders, including threats related fall in the number of migrants on the Cen- Coast Guard Agency, maintains a strong to cross-border crime and prevention of tral Mediterranean route, where the num- presence at Europe’s external borders. terrorism. The Agency is able to respond ber of detections plunged 80 % to 23 485. The Agency ran three permanent oper- quickly and effectively to challenges at Meanwhile, both the Western Med- ations in Spain, Greece and Italy, as- the external borders, shoulder-to-shoul- iterranean and the Eastern Mediter- sisting EU Member States that faced the der with EU Member States and Schen- ranean routes saw an increase in the highest migratory pressure. On average, gen Associated Countries. This integrated detections of illegal crossings last year. some 1 500 border guards are deployed approach, which brings together the ef- The Western Mediterranean became in Frontex joint operations, along with forts of Frontex and other EU agencies, the most frequently used route into Eu- vessels, planes, helicopters, patrol cars along with EU institutions and national rope. The pressure on Spain has been ris- and other equipment. authorities, is a key factor to address ir- ing over the last years, and the number Last year, Frontex began to collect de- regular migration and cross-border crime of detections in 2018 reached 57 034, dou- tailed data on the sex and the age of ir- at the external borders. ble the number from 2017. The number of regular migrants. Nearly one in five of all Despite the falling migratory pres- departures from Morocco increased five- the detected migrants last year claimed sure in the Central Mediterranean, the fold. Most of the migrants taking this to be under the age of 18. This new de- fight against criminal smuggling net- route last year came from sub-Saharan velopment is crucial not only for a bet- works at the external borders remains countries, but the number of Moroccan ter monitoring and understanding of the in our focus. In 2018, Frontex continued nationals also increased significantly. dynamics and composition of incoming collecting information from voluntary 6 of 52 Frontex · Risk Analysis for 2019 © Frontex interviews with migrants in the Cen- reinforcing and coordinating border con- The situation in the countries out- tral, Eastern and Western Mediterranean trol activities in Member States. side the EU also has a direct impact on area in the framework of PeDRA (Pro- In 2018, the Agency substantially Europe’s borders. Frontex is monitoring cessing Personal Data for Risk Analysis). strengthened its activities aimed at the countries neighbouring the EU iden- The vast majority (84 %) of the migrants returning irregular migrants to their tified through risk analysis as countries interviewed claimed that they were fa- countries of origin. Last year, we helped of origin and / or transit for illegal immi- cilitated by smuggling networks. Bor- Member States return 13 729 people who gration. The aim is to better address chal- der guards are also the first filter at the do not have the right to remain in the EU lenges at EU borders. Frontex has become external borders when it comes to the to their countries of origin. We launched more active in countries neighbouring detection of potential terrorist threats. a successful trial of conducting returns the EU that are affected by migration This is done through screening, registra- on commercial flights to nearly 50 des- and cross-border crime, including the tion, document checks or voluntary in- tinations and we have significantly in- Western Balkans, where the EU signed terviews. We work closely with Europol creased our pre-return assistance to an agreement on cooperation on bor- and other European agencies sharing Member States. der management between Albania and this information. To help Member States better prepare the European Border and Coast Guard Over the last few years, the European for potential challenges at their borders, Agency. The Agency also has three liai- Union and its Member States have been for the second year Frontex conducted son officers outside the EU based in Tur- facing major challenges related to mi- the vulnerability assessment to evalu- key, Niger and Serbia. gration and security. As a response, a ate the border control capabilities of EU Together with its partners, Frontex, number of changes have been imple- member states. the European Border and Coast Guard mented when it comes to border con- Last year, the Agency further devel- Agency, will continue to contribute to trol and management. These include oped its network of liaison officers to EU the safety and security at the EU’s ex- the amendment of the Schengen Bor- Member States. Those officers help Fron- ternal borders and its citizens and to the ders Code, the establishment of the EU tex in the exchange of information with well-functioning of the European Area of Entry / Exit System and the adoption of partners at national level, and contribute Freedom, Security and Justice.