A aquellos que aman la naturaleza RECOMMENDED CITATION: Lucas, P.M. (2016) Species distribution ranges and conservation: Spatial structure, contraction patterns, global change impacts, and bias in species data. PhD Thesis. Pablo de Olavide University, Sevilla, Spain. DESIGN & LAYOUT: Pablo Miguel Lucas. Show the distribution range of the Brown bear (Ursus arctos), one of the most originally widely distributed terrestrial mammals in the world but which have suffered an important range contraction (Red color) due to persecution and habitat destruction by humans. Its current distribution (Blue color) shows continuous big areas at high latitudes and fragmented populations in areas of Europe. Species distribution ranges and conservation: Spatial structure, contraction patterns, global change impacts, and bias in species data — Distribuciones de especies y conservación Estructura espacial, patrones de contracción, impactos de cambio global y sesgos en los datos de especies Pablo Miguel Lucas PhD Thesis Sevilla, 2016 Estación Biológica de Doñana, CSIC Departamento de Biología de la Conservación Universidad Pablo de Olavide Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales Departamento de Biología Molecular e Ingeniería Bioquímica Doctorado en Estudios Medioambientales "Species distribution ranges and conservation: Spatial structure, contraction patterns, global change impacts, and bias in species data" Memoria presentada por el Licenciado en Ciencias Ambientales Pablo Miguel Lucas Ibáñez para optar al título de Doctor por la Universidad Pablo de Olavide Fdo. Pablo Miguel Lucas Ibáñez Dr. Eloy Revilla Sánchez, Estación Biológica de Doñana - CSIC, Sevilla (España) y Dra. Manuela González Suárez, University of Reading, Reading (Reino Unido) CERTIFICAN Que los trabajos de investigación desarrollados en la Memoria de Tesis Doctoral "Species distribution ranges and conservation: Spatial structure, contraction patterns, global change impacts, and bias in species data" son aptos para ser presentados por el Licenciado Pablo Miguel Lucas Ibáñez ante el Tribunal que en su día se designe, para aspirar al Grado de Doctor por la Universidad Pablo de Olavide. Y para que así conste, y en cumplimiento de las disposiciones legales vigentes, extendemos el presente certificado a 7 de Octubre de 2016. Directores: Fdo. Eloy Revilla Sánchez Fdo. Manuela González Suárez Tutor: Fdo. Eduardo Narbona Fernández Universidad Pablo de Olavide Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better. Albert Einstein Index Summary .................................................................................................................................. 12 Resumen ................................................................................................................................. 14 Synthesis and review: Species ranges, natural processes, human interactions and gaps/opportunities .................................................................................................................... 16 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 18 Range structure and dynamics ............................................................................................. 18 Ranges in the antropocene ................................................................................................... 25 Gaps and opportunities ........................................................................................................ 33 Chapter 1: Toward multifactorial null models of range contraction in terrestrial vertebrates . 37 Abstract................................................................................................................................ 39 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 40 Methods ............................................................................................................................... 42 Results ................................................................................................................................. 47 Discussion ............................................................................................................................ 52 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................... 55 Supplementary material ....................................................................................................... 56 Chapter 2: Size matters, and so does spatial configuration: predicting vulnerability to extinction in vertebrates......................................................................................................... 115 Abstract.............................................................................................................................. 117 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 118 Material and methods ........................................................................................................ 121 Results ............................................................................................................................... 124 Discussion .......................................................................................................................... 132 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... 135 Supplementary material ..................................................................................................... 137 Chapter 3: The roles of climate change and land use in recent terrestrial vertebrate range contractions ............................................................................................................................ 139 Abstract.............................................................................................................................. 141 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 141 Material and methods ........................................................................................................ 144 Results ............................................................................................................................... 148 Discussion .......................................................................................................................... 153 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................. 158 Supplementary material ..................................................................................................... 159 Chapter 4: Biases in comparative analyses of extinction risk: mind the gap......................... 266 Abstract.............................................................................................................................. 268 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 269 Materials and Methods ...................................................................................................... 271 Results ............................................................................................................................... 277 Discussion .......................................................................................................................... 285 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................. 289 Supporting material ........................................................................................................... 291 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 298 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................... 302 Agradecimientos .................................................................................................................... 319 Summary Summary The impact of human activities is causing an accelerated loss of biodiversity. The two main human impacts, habitat loss through land use modifications and climate change are predicted to be widespread and more intense in the future, increasing the risk of extinction of many species. Therefore, there is an urgent necessity to improve our understanding of how extinctions occur in order to improve predictions and to maximize the effectiveness of conservation policies. The complete extinction of a species is usually preceded by a process of extinction of its local populations which causes a reduction of the geographic extension of its distribution range, in a process called range contraction. Distribution ranges are naturally dynamic, but nowadays, the impact of human activities is the main factor driving colonizations and local extinctions. The spatial structure and dynamics of species’ ranges are related to their ecology, their coexistence with other species and other historical and evolutionary factors, affecting the overall probability of extinction and recolonization. These factors and processes show variability among taxa due to differences in the