Turkey: Selected Foreign Policy Issues and U.S. Views Carol Migdalovitz Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs November 28, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL34642 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Turkey: Selected Foreign Policy Issues and U.S. Views Summary This report focuses on the foreign policy of Turkey, a long-time valued U.S. NATO ally, and examines the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) recalculation of the country’s approach to foreign affairs and its possible effects on relations with the United States. It begins with a discussion of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s theoretical framework for a multidirectional outreach less firmly anchored in the West than in the past and his efforts to seek “zero problems” with Turkey’s neighbors and new partners beyond. The AKP is able to follow these guidelines because it has consolidated its political power domestically, exerted unprecedented control over the formerly powerful military, and spurred robust economic growth. The desire for export markets is a major motivator for the directional diversification, and the growth in trade, in turn, contributes to the prosperity and growth of AKP’s middle class base which is strengthening the party. Increasingly, the party’s Islamist origins also appear to be determining policy. Moreover, the party’s foreign policy independence appeals to the traditionally strong nationalism of the Turks and, therefore, contributes to its popularity at home. This report surveys Turkish foreign policy issues that are of critical interest to U.S. officials and Members of Congress. Three main categories of issues are: ones on which Turkish and U.S. policies continue to coalesce, ones on which policies diverge, and ones which may be less than completely harmonious but not adversarial. The United States and Turkey continue to find common interest in their desire for the stability and territorial integrity of Iraq and to prevent the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), based in northern Iraq, from perpetrating violence in Turkey; for peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan; and for the diversification of European energy resources. In other areas, there has been divergence. Most prominently, Turkish and U.S. officials disagree about whether Iran has a nuclear program solely intended for peaceful purposes or also to produce nuclear weapons and, thereby, pose a threat to allied security. They also differ about the deterioration in Turkish-Israeli relations, provoked largely by the 2009 conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the May 2010 crisis over Israel’s seizure of a Turkish ship bound for Gaza. The AKP government’s reaction to these events and sympathies for Hamas complicate efforts to revive Turkish-Israeli ties. In addition, they affect U.S. efforts to find common ground with Turkey about the peace process. The United States also sometimes seems to support Turkey’s EU ambitions, normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, and a settlement on Cyprus more than the AKP. Finally, the report discusses U.S. policymakers’ attempts to grapple with the complexity of Turkish policies, the bilateral relationship, and emerging differences. Obama Administration officials often appear publicly to gloss over disagreements as they reiterate longstanding U.S. appreciation for Turkey’s contributions in areas of agreement. Completing the report and of interest to Congress are discussions of U.S. use of the Turkish air base at Incirlik that is vital for cargo deliveries to forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, Turkey’s role in NATO’s new missile defense architecture, and overviews of bilateral trade and U.S. aid to Turkey. For domestic context, see CRS Report R41368, Turkey: Politics of Identity and Power. See also sections on Turkey in CRS Report R40849, Iran: Regional Perspectives and U.S. Policy; CRS Report RL33793, Iraq: Regional Perspectives and U.S. Policy; and CRS Report R41275, Israel’s Blockade of Gaza, the Mavi Marmara Incident, and Its Aftermath. Congressional Research Service Turkey: Selected Foreign Policy Issues and U.S. Views Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................1 AKP’s Approach to Foreign Policy..............................................................................................2 Iraq.............................................................................................................................................6 Israel.........................................................................................................................................10 The Palestinian Authority and Hamas........................................................................................15 Israeli-Syrian Talks ...................................................................................................................15 Syria .........................................................................................................................................16 Iran...........................................................................................................................................17 Overview ............................................................................................................................17 Nuclear Issue ......................................................................................................................18 Shared Concerns on Iraq .....................................................................................................23 Economic and Energy Relations..........................................................................................23 European Union........................................................................................................................25 Cyprus......................................................................................................................................29 Armenia....................................................................................................................................31 Bilateral Relations...............................................................................................................31 Genocide Issue....................................................................................................................35 Afghanistan ..............................................................................................................................37 Energy ......................................................................................................................................39 Oil and Gas Pipelines..........................................................................................................39 U.S. Energy Policy..............................................................................................................42 Nuclear Energy ...................................................................................................................43 China ........................................................................................................................................43 U.S.-Turkish Relations..............................................................................................................44 Policy Overview .................................................................................................................44 Missile Defense ..................................................................................................................48 Incirlik Air Base..................................................................................................................49 Trade ..................................................................................................................................50 U.S. Aid..............................................................................................................................51 Conclusions ..............................................................................................................................52 Figures Figure 1. Turkey and Its Neighbors .............................................................................................5 Tables Table 1. European Union Assistance to Turkey..........................................................................28 Table 2. U.S. Merchandise Trade with Turkey ...........................................................................51 Congressional Research Service Turkey: Selected Foreign Policy Issues and U.S. Views Table 3. U.S. Foreign Assistance ...............................................................................................51 Contacts Author Contact Information ......................................................................................................53 Congressional Research Service Turkey: Selected Foreign Policy Issues and U.S. Views Introduction Turkey, a NATO ally, is situated amid the troubled Balkans, Caucasus, and Middle East regions and is a critical energy and transit hub between Central Asia/the Caucasus and Europe. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) projects Turkey as a major regional power with ambitions to be a global actor and power. Since the AKP was first elected in 2002,Turkey has assumed the post of secretary-general of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), taken observer status at the Arab League,