The Impact of Road Projects in England The Impact of Road Projects in England Lynn Sloman, Lisa Hopkinson and Ian Taylor Transport for Quality of Life March 2017 Commissioned by: Project name: The Impact of Road Projects in England Client: Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) Date: March 2017 The preferred citation of this report is: Sloman L, Hopkinson L and Taylor I (2017) The Impact of Road Projects in England Report for CPRE Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence Acknowledgments The following people provided information and help during the course of this project, which we gratefully acknowledge: James Abbott, Michele Allen, Sarah Arnold, Andy Bennett, Kerris Casey-St Pierre, Jackie Copley, Amy Cowburn, Steve Donagain, Tony Duckworth, Robin Field, Peter Foreman, Alan Gray, Chantelle Grundy, David Harby, Tony Forward, Jeffery Kenyon, Bettina Lange, Ian Lings, No M65 Link Road Protest Group, David Penney, Martin Porter, Oliver Scott, Stuart Scott, Ralph Smyth, Jack Taylor, James Syson, Trinley Walker, Petra Ward, Paula Whitney, Louise Wootton, Hadyn Yeo. It would not have been possible to make this assessment of the impact of roads projects without the POPE evaluation process that was put in place by the Highways Agency twenty years ago. Although our assessment of the evidence has drawn some markedly different conclusions from those reached in the POPE meta-analyses, we acknowledge the value and importance of the POPE process itself. We also acknowledge and are grateful for the willingness of Highways England to assist with this research, by supplying data and information from their archives. We also thank Tony Forward for access to his archive of planning documents. Cover image: Excavation of cutting for the Newbury Bypass; Chris Gomersall rspb- images.com All other images: Transport for Quality of Life, unless otherwise stated TfQL Community Interest Company Telephone: 01654 781358 Email: [email protected] Contact: Lynn Sloman, [email protected] 2 | P a g e Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 9 PART I: Evidence from POPEs and Meta-analyses ............................................................ 11 2. Effects of Road Schemes on Traffic Volume .................................................................... 11 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 11 2.2 Our methodology to assess existence of induced traffic ........................................ 12 2.3 Evidence of induced traffic ...................................................................................... 14 2.4 Variance of conclusions to those in the POPE meta-analysis .................................. 21 3. Effects of Road Schemes on Landscape, Biodiversity and Heritage ................................ 22 3.1 Landscape impact: evidence from POPE ................................................................. 22 3.2 Biodiversity impacts: evidence from POPE.............................................................. 25 3.3 Heritage impacts: evidence from POPE ................................................................... 27 3.4 Highways England’s responsibility for landscape and biodiversity ......................... 28 3.5 POPE approach to assessment of environmental impact ....................................... 28 4. Effects of Road Schemes on the Local Economy ............................................................. 30 4.1 Economic development impact: evidence from POPE ............................................ 30 4.2 Our assessment of economic evidence in the POPEs .............................................. 43 4.3 Other evidence on the economic impact of road schemes .................................... 45 4.4 Comments on the POPE approach to the assessment of economic impact ........... 46 5. Other Effects of Road Schemes ....................................................................................... 48 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 48 5.2 Congestion and reliability ........................................................................................ 48 5.3 Journey time savings in cost-benefit analysis of road schemes .............................. 50 5.4 Road safety .............................................................................................................. 53 5.5 Greenhouse gas emissions ...................................................................................... 54 PART II: Case Study Evidence .......................................................................................... 56 6. Overview of the Case Studies .......................................................................................... 56 7. A34 Newbury Bypass Case Study .................................................................................... 59 7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 59 7.2 Traffic impact ........................................................................................................... 60 7.3 Landscape and other environmental impacts ......................................................... 62 7.4 Economic impact ..................................................................................................... 66 3 | P a g e 7.5 Land development impact ....................................................................................... 67 7.6 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 74 8. M65 Blackburn Southern Bypass Case Study .................................................................. 75 8.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 75 8.2 Traffic impact ........................................................................................................... 76 8.3 Landscape and other environmental impacts ......................................................... 80 8.4 Economic impact ..................................................................................................... 83 8.5 Land development impact ....................................................................................... 86 8.6 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 88 9. A46 Newark – Lincoln Case Study ................................................................................... 90 9.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 90 9.2 Traffic impact ........................................................................................................... 91 9.3 Landscape and other environmental impacts ......................................................... 94 9.4 Economic impact ..................................................................................................... 98 9.5 Land development impact ..................................................................................... 101 9.6 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 103 10. A120 Stansted to Braintree Case Study ..................................................................... 105 10.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 105 10.2 Traffic impact ......................................................................................................... 107 10.3 Landscape and other environmental impacts ....................................................... 110 10.4 Economic impact ................................................................................................... 113 10.5 Land development impact ..................................................................................... 116 10.6 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 118 PART III: Evidence Synthesis and Recommendations ..................................................... 119 11. Overview of the effects of the roads programme ..................................................... 119 11.1 Roads and generated traffic .................................................................................. 119 11.2 Roads and environmental impacts ........................................................................ 121 11.3 Roads and economic impacts ................................................................................ 122 11.4 Roads and land use change ................................................................................... 126 11.5 Roads, safety and physical activity ........................................................................ 126 11.6 Was road building the solution?............................................................................ 127 11.7 Recommendations and conclusions .....................................................................