“TELLING THE STORY” Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: A Regional Perspective (2011-2016) Emma Hooper (ed.) This monograph has been produced with the financial assistance of the Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Ministry. © 2016 CIDOB This monograph has been produced with the financial assistance of the Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Ministry. CIDOB edicions Elisabets, 12 08001 Barcelona Tel.: 933 026 495 www.cidob.org [email protected] D.L.: B 17561 - 2016 Barcelona, September 2016 CONTENTS CONTRIBUTOR BIOGRAPHIES 5 FOREWORD 11 Tine Mørch Smith INTRODUCTION 13 Emma Hooper CHAPTER ONE: MAPPING THE SOURCES OF TENSION WITH REGIONAL DIMENSIONS 17 Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: A Regional Perspective .......... 19 Zahid Hussain Mapping the Sources of Tension and the Interests of Regional Powers in Afghanistan and Pakistan ............................................................................................. 35 Emma Hooper & Juan Garrigues CHAPTER TWO: KEY PHENOMENA: THE TALIBAN, REFUGEES , & THE BRAIN DRAIN, GOVERNANCE 57 THE TALIBAN Preamble: Third Party Roles and Insurgencies in South Asia ............................... 61 Moeed Yusuf The Pakistan Taliban Movement: An Appraisal ......................................................... 65 Michael Semple The Taliban Movement in Afghanistan ........................................................................ 83 Malaiz Daud REFUGEES & THE BRAIN DRAIN Preamble: Afghans as Second-Class Refugees in Parts of Europe ................... 103 Thomas Ruttig “Going, Going... Once Again Gone?” The Human Capital Outflow from Afghanistan Post 2014 Elections ........................................................................ 105 Susanne Schmeidl The Voices Behing the Refugee Outflow from Afghanistan ............................. 153 Hameed Hakimi and Barin S. Haymon GOVERNANCE Preamble: Governance & Pakistan´s Transition to Democracy .......................... 175 Senator Sherry Rehman Pakistan: Ungoverned Spaces ........................................................................................ 179 Raza Ahmad Rumi The Construction and Deconstruction of Pakistan: The Institutional Writ of the State ................................................................................ 201 Zahid Hussain CHAPTER THREE: KEY POLITICAL & SOCIAL ISSUES 217 Preamble: Afghanistan and Pakistan: A Historic Comparison ........................... 219 H. E. Jawed Ludin Power to the Periphery? The Elusive Consensus on How to Decentralise Afghanistan ............................................................................................ 223 Michael Semple Afghanistan´s Ethnic Divides .......................................................................................... 243 Abubakar Siddique The Changing Nature of Power and Sovereignty in Afghanistan ................... 255 Aziz Hakimi CHAPTER FOUR: KEY ECONOMIC ISSUES FACING THE REGION 287 Preamble: Economic and Political Developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan: An Overview .............................................................. 289 Anatol Lieven Post 2014: The Regional Drug Economy and Its Implications for Pakistan ............................................................................................................................ 291 Safiya Aftab Afghanistan: The Geopolitics of Regional Economic Integration. The Emergence of China as the New Facilitator ..................................................... 313 Masood Aziz CONCLUSION: THE WAY FORWARD 343 The STAP RP Project Team CONTRIBUTOR BIOGRAPHIES Safiya Aftab is an Islamabad-based consultant with degrees in economics and public administration, who has worked extensively with a wide range of development agencies and research institutions. Her work covers economics, governance and political economy issues. She has worked, among other, with the Asian Development Bank, Pakistan; the World Food Programme, and has graduate degrees in economics from the Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad; the London School of Economics; and in public administration from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Raza Rumi Ahmad is a Pakistani political analyst, journalist, columnist and broadcaster. A former governance specialist with the Asian Development Bank, he is currently Scholar in Residence at Ithaca College, USA, where he teaches on the Honors Programme. He was a fellow at New America Foundation (2014); United States Institute of Peace (Sept 2014-March 2015) and a visiting fellow at National Endowment for Democracy. He is published in Foreign Policy, the Huffington Post, the New York Times, the Diplomat, CNN and Al Jazeera, the Hindu, and the Express Tribune Pakistan. Masood Aziz is a former senior Afghan diplomat, a foreign policy analyst, author and lecturer. He is a contributor to the book “The New Silk Roads: Transport and Trade in Greater Central Asia”, and has published with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Swedish Defense Research Agency, the Council on Foreign Relations, and PRMI. He frequently appears on BBC World Service TV & Radio, Al Jazeera English TV, BBC Arabic TV and CNN’s GPS/Fareed Zakaria. Malaiz Daud is an Afghan political analyst with an M.A. in Post-War Recovery from the University of York, former Chevening and OSI scholar and a Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) fellow. He is a member of the STAP RP project team, and a Research Associate of CIDOB. An organizer of Afghanistan’s Constitutional Loya Jirga in 2004 and the Kabul Conference in 2010, he has also headed the Afghan Development Association (ADA) and the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) in Afghanistan. A founding member of the Afghan Youth Foundation for Unity (AYFU) and Young Leaders Forum (YLF); formerly an elected member of the Steering Committee of Agency Coordinating Body for Afghan Relief (ACBAR); a member of Board of Directors of Human Rights Research; the Advocacy Consortium (HRRAC); the Afghan Civil Society Forum (ACSF) and the Peace Training and Research Organization (PTRO). He is currently pursuing a PhD on the nonviolent Khudai Khidmatgar Movement of Pashtuns from the Free University of Berlin with funding from the Berghof Foundation. Juan Garrigues is a former Research Fellow of CIDOB, and a founding member of the STAP RP project team. He was a former Foreign Policy Advisor to the Office of the Prime Minister of Spain, and is currently a Special 5 2016 Advisor to the Dialogue Advisory Group in Amsterdam. He graduated in International Politics from the University of Virginia; and has a Master’s in International Studies from the Complutense University of Madrid. He was a researcher in the Area of Peace and Security in FRIDE, Madrid; a Project Manager in CITpax, and has worked in the Department of Political Affairs of the Secretariat of the United Nations. He has extensive on-the-ground experience as a long and short-term electoral observer (in Bosnia, Niger and Aceh, Indonesia); and worked with the NGO ACTED in Afghanistan. His main areas of interest are conflict mediation, peacekeeping operations, crisis management and fragile states, including Afghanistan and Libya. He is currently Special Adviser to the Dialogue Advisory Group, Amsterdam. Dr. Aziz Hakimi is a Afghan political scientist with a PhD in development studies from the School of Oriental & African Studies, London University. He has been a guest researcher at the Christian Mikkelsen Institute in Norway, and was a former Director of a non-profit NGO - Future Generations in Afghanistan. He has worked as policy advisor for President Karzai in Afghanistan and as Human Rights Advisor with the United Nations in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Before joining Future Generations, he was Executive Director of the Killid Group, a local media organization based in Kabul. He was educated in India and South Africa and holds a Master’s Degree in Conflict, Security and Development from King’s College in London. He is currently a research associate (anthropology) at the University of Sussex. Hameed Hakimi is a research associate of the Asia Programme at Chatham House, London and formerly a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He has also worked at the British Refugee Council. His areas of expertise include politics and society in Afghanistan; FATA (Pakistan); Islam/Muslims in Britain; and refugees and asylum seekers in Britain. Barin Sultani Haymon is an independent Afghan analyst, with a background in the non-profit sector. She holds an MSc in Comparative Politics (Conflict Studies) from the London School  of Economics and obtained her BA in International Studies from Emory University in Atlanta, GA, with a focus on conflict resolution in the Middle East and Africa. She also completed a program at The Institute for International Mediation and Conflict Resolution (IIMCR), in conjunction with Erasmus University Rotterdam and The Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Dr. Emma Hooper is Project Director and a founding member of the STAP RP project team, based in Madrid. She is a Senior Research Fellow Associate at CIDOB. She is a specialist in South Asia and the Middle East, with a degree in Middle Eastern History from the School of Oriental & African Studies, London, and a PhD from the London School of Economics. She has worked as an Independent