Final Report Merced County 2017/18 - 2021/22 Short Range Transit Plan Prepared for the Merced County Association of Governments Prepared by LSC Transportation Consultants, Inc. This page left intentionally blank. Final Report Merced County 2017/18 – 2021/22 Short Range Transit Plan _________________________ Prepared for the Merced County Association of Governments 369 West 18th Street Merced, CA 95340 Prepared by LSC Transportation Consultants, Inc. 2690 Lake Forest Road, Suite C P. O. Box 5875 Tahoe City, California 96145 This plan development has been financed in part through a grant from the United States Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration, and through other State and local funds made available to and through the Merced County Association of Governments.The findings and recommendations of this plan are solely those of the consultant team; they are not explicitly endorsed by Caltrans or the Federal Transit Administration. June 30, 2017 LSC #167330 This page left intentionally blank. TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 2 Study Setting and Public Outreach .......................................................................................................... 3 3 Existing Transit Services ........................................................................................................................ 29 4 Passenger Surveys ................................................................................................................................. 77 5 Service Alternatives Analysis ................................................................................................................. 85 6 Capital Alternatives ............................................................................................................................. 133 7 Financial Considerations .................................................................................................................... 151 8 Goals, Policies, Objectives and Performance Measures ..................................................................... 161 9 Merced County Short Range Transit Plan ........................................................................................... 167 10 Marketing Plan ................................................................................................................................... 191 Appendix A – G: Bound Separately LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 1 Historic and Projected Population of Merced County ............................................................................ 3 2 Merced County Population Characteristics ............................................................................................. 6 3 Population Projections by Age Groups for Merced County .................................................................. 14 4 Merced County Commute Travel Characteristics ................................................................................. 16 5 Commuters Into and Out of Merced County ........................................................................................ 17 6 Commuters from Merced County ......................................................................................................... 17 7 Top Merced County Employers ............................................................................................................. 18 8 The Bus Fares and Passes ...................................................................................................................... 40 9 TJPA Operating and Capital Revenues .................................................................................................. 42 10 TJPA Operating Expenses ...................................................................................................................... 43 11 The Bus Operating Statistics, Fiscal Year 2015‐16 ................................................................................ 45 12 The Bus Performance Indicators by Route ............................................................................................ 46 13 The Bus Ridership by Route and Year ................................................................................................... 50 14 The Bus Ridership by Route and Month, Fiscal Year 2015‐16 .............................................................. 52 15 Busiest Boarding and Alighting by Route and Stop .............................................................................. 53 Fiscal Year 2017‐18 to 2021‐22 LSC Transportation Consultants, Inc. Merced County Short Range Transit Plan Page i 16 Summary of Passenger Activity at Major The Bus Stops ....................................................................... 54 17 The Bus Ridership by Route and Day of the Week ................................................................................ 55 18 The Bus Average Weekday Passenger Boarding by Route by Time of Day ........................................... 60 19 Review of Weekday Ridership and Productivity ................................................................................... 62 20 The Bus Fixed Route Fleet Inventory..................................................................................................... 67 21 The Bus Paratransit Fleet Inventory ...................................................................................................... 68 22 CatTracks Service................................................................................................................................... 74 23 YARTS Ridership by Month .................................................................................................................... 75 24 Transfers To and From Surveyed Routes .............................................................................................. 78 25 Common Boarding Locations of Surveyed Passengers ......................................................................... 79 26 The Bus Service Alternatives Summary ................................................................................................. 88 27 Weekday Vs. Weekend Ridership and Service Level on Routes Serving UC Santa Cruz Campus ......... 98 28 Existing Route W2 Weekday Ridership by Run ................................................................................... 104 29 Existing Rural Lifeline Services ............................................................................................................ 111 30 Proportion of The Bus Paratransit Trip‐Ends by Distance from Nearest Fixed Route ........................ 119 31 Transit Service Alternatives Performance Analysis ............................................................................. 126 32 Merced The Bus SRTP Vehicle Needs .................................................................................................. 134 33 Percentage of September, 2016 Boardings by Fare or Pass Type by Route ....................................... 155 34 Peer System Fare and Pass Analysis .................................................................................................... 158 35 Current and Proposed Performance Standards .................................................................................. 163 36 Merced The Bus SRTP Estimated Operating Cost ............................................................................... 181 37 Merced The Bus SRTP Estimated Ridership ........................................................................................ 182 38 Merced The Bus SRTP Estimated Farebox Revenues .......................................................................... 184 39 Merced The Bus SRTP Capital Plan ...................................................................................................... 185 40 Merced The Bus SRTP Financial Plan .................................................................................................. 186 41 Merced The Bus Initiatives for Objective #1 ....................................................................................... 211 42 Merced The Bus Initiatives for Objective #2 ....................................................................................... 212 43 Merced The Bus Initiatives for Objectives #3 ...................................................................................... 213 44 Merced The Bus Initiatives for Objective #4 ....................................................................................... 213 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 1 Study Location Map ................................................................................................................................ 4 2 Merced County Population Trends: 2000 to 2030 .................................................................................. 5 3 Total Population Per Square Mile ........................................................................................................... 7 4 Youth Population (Ages 10 to 17) Per Square Mile ................................................................................. 8 5 Senior Population (Ages 65 and Over) Per Square Mile ........................................................................ 10 6 Persons Living Below the Poverty Level by Census Tract ...................................................................... 11 7 Zero Vehicle Households by Census Tract............................................................................................