Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 10-Year Forecast of Market Demand This study was jointly funded by the Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation and Space Florida. Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 10-Year Forecast of Market Demand Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................... 1 Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 10-Year Forecast of Market Demand . 9 Purpose of the Forecast . 10 Methodology . 10 Suborbital Reusable Vehicles . 13 Market Analysis . 17 Suborbital Reusable Vehicle Markets . 18 Commercial Human Spaceflight . 21 Basic and Applied Research . 37 Aerospace Technology Test and Demonstration . .49 Media and Public Relations . 55 Education . 61 Satellite Deployment . 69 Remote Sensing . 75 Point-to-Point Transportation . 79 Forecast . 83 Demand by Market . 84 Demand by Type of User . 86 Type of SRV Payload . 88 Revenue . 88 Summary of Major Uncertainties . 89 Limited Awareness of SRVs . 90 Conclusion . 91 i The Tauri Group List of Figures Figure 1: SRV market definitions . .2 Figure 2: Total SRV forecast by market and scenario . 4 Figure 3: Possible trends over time -- Individual demand for Commercial Human Spaceflight . .4 Figure 4: Price elasticity of suborbital tickets for individuals with $5M in investable assets . .5 Figure 5: Enterprise demand and individual demand in baseline case . 6 Figure 6: Enterprise demand by type of payload . 6 Figure 7: Enterprise demand by type of user . 6 Figure 8: Possible reservations trend to meet forecasted demand . .7 Figure 9: 10-year SRV demand forecast . 9 Figure 10: SRV Markets . 11 Figure 11: Forecast process . 13 Figure 12: Status of SRVs . 16 Figure 13: SRV market definitions . 20 Figure 14: Affluent travelers identified a suborbital flight as a trip of a lifetime . 25 Figure 15: Net worth and investable assets of survey respondents . 30 Figure 16: Across all age groups, respondents could imagine spending more than they have in the past . 32 Figure 17: Baseline, Constrained, and Growth scenarios for Commercial Human Spaceflight . 35 Figure 18: Commercial Human Spaceflight Baseline Submarket Share . 36 Figure 19: Possible trends over time -- Individual demand for Commercial Human Spaceflight . 36 Figure 20: Price elasticity of suborbital tickets for individuals with $5M in investable assets . 37 Figure 21: Basic and Applied Research disciplines . 40 Figure 22: Future SRV experiments have to be devised by researchers before demand can fully manifest . 41 Figure 23: Baseline, Constrained, and Growth scenarios for Basic and Applied Research . 49 Figure 24: Basic and Applied Research Baseline Submarket Share . 49 Figure 25: Technology Readiness Levels . 52 Figure 26: Baseline, Constrained, and Growth scenarios for Aerospace Technology Test and Demo . 56 Figure 27: Celestis flies cremated remains to space . 60 Figure 28: Baseline, Constrained, and Growth scenarios for Media & PR . 62 Figure 29: Media & PR Baseline Submarket Share . 62 Figure 30: Universities participating in space-related educational programs by region . .66 Figure 31: Baseline, Constrained, and Growth scenarios for Education . 68 Figure 32: Education Baseline Submarket Share . 68 Figure 33: Baseline, Constrained, and Growth scenarios for Satellite Deployment . 75 ii Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 10-Year Forecast of Market Demand Figure 34: Satellite Deployment Baseline Submarket Share . 75 Figure 35: Total SRV forecast by market and scenario . 86 Figure 36: Enterprise demand and individual demand in baseline case . 88 Figure 37: Enterprise demand by type of user . 89 Figure 38: Enterprise demand by type of payload . 89 Figure 39: Overall demand among enterprise customers by market area . 89 Figure 40: SRV seats versus cargo . 90 Figure 41: Possible reservations trend to meet forecasted demand . 91 Figure 42: 10-year SRV demand forecast . 93 List of Tables Table 1: SRV status details . 1 Table 2: Seat/cargo equivalents . .3 Table 3: Total projected demand for SRVs across all markets . .3 Table 4: Seat/cargo equivalents . 11 Table 5: SRV status details . 15 Table 6: Space-related tourism experiences (including SRVs) . 23 Table 7: SRV reservations to date . 25 Table 8: Summary of suborbital seats given away in contests and promotions . 26 Table 9: Commercial Human Spaceflight forecast in seat/cargo equivalents . 34 Table 10: Major funders/customers of Basic and Applied Research mapped to the four research applications well suited to SRVs . 40 Table 11: Mapping of SRV Research Applications to SRV capabilities . 41 Table 12: Customization of Basic and Applied Research methodologies . 43 Table 13: Basic and Applied Research forecast in seat/cargo equivalents . 47 Table 14: Types of test and demonstration that can potentially be conducted on SRVs and other aerospace test and demonstration platforms . 51 Table 15: Comparison of SRV capabilities to other platforms . 52 Table 16: Aerospace Technology Test and Demonstration forecast in seats/cargo equivalents . 54 Table 17: Examples of flight-related space advertising and PR efforts . 57 Table 18: Media & PR forecast in seat/cargo equivalents . 60 Table 19: Examples of K-12 space-related education . ..