POTENTIAL OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC AND WIND POWER PLANTS IN MEETING ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN AFGHANISTAN Thesis Submitted to The School of Engineering of the UNIVERSITY OF DAYTON In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for The Degree of Master of Science in Renewable and Clean Energy By Ahmad Murtaza Ershad Dayton, Ohio May, 2014 POTENTIAL OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC AND WIND POWER PLANTS IN MEETING ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN AFGHANISTAN Name: Ershad, Ahmad Murtaza APPROVED BY: _____________________________ ___________________________ Robert J. Brecha, Ph.D. J. Kelly Kissock, Ph.D. Advisory Committee Chairman Committee Member Professor Chair and Professor Mechanical and Aerospace Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Engineering _________________________________ Kevin P. Hallinan, Ph.D. Committee Member Professor Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering _____________________________ ___________________________ John G. Weber, Ph.D. Tony E. Saliba, Ph.D. Associate Dean Dean, School of Engineering School of Engineering & Wilke Distinguished Professor © Copyright by Ahmad Murtaza Ershad All rights reserved 2014 ABSTRACT POTENTIAL OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC AND WIND POWER PLANTS IN MEETING ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN AFGHANISTAN Name: Ershad, Ahmad Murtaza University of Dayton Advisor: Dr. Robert J. Brecha This thesis analyses the potential of large-scale grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power plants in two of Afghanistan’s most populous provinces (Balkh and Herat) to meet a fraction of growing electricity demand. The analysis is performed by quantifying resource quality, variability and cost of energy generation. First, the quality of solar and wind resources is quantified by characterizing wind speed and solar radiation and calculating capacity factors and energy yields from hypothetical power plants using measured wind speed and typical solar radiation data. Second, variability of wind and solar resources is quantified by comparing their daily and seasonal profiles with electricity demand profiles, analyzing their impacts on load duration curves and determining their penetration and curtailment levels for various demand scenarios. Finally, cost of energy generated from solar PV and wind power plants is determined. The research shows that future solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat provinces could achieve very high penetration levels without significant curtailment iv meaning less reliance on unpredictable and unstable power purchase agreements with neighboring countries, longer life of limited domestic fossil fuel resources such as coal and natural gas, and less imports of diesel fuel with rising costs and unfriendly environmental impacts. v Dedicated to Afghanistan. vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank Dr. Robert J. Brecha, my thesis committee chair and advisor, for his time and guidance for completing this work. In the meantime, I would also like to thank Dr. Kevin Hallinan and Dr. Kelly Kissock, my committee members, for their support, ideas and comments. Not only did they support me academically, they helped me appreciate the importance of energy in development and applauded me again and again for my research about Afghanistan. It is not easy to do research about Afghanistan without getting frustrated due to lack of adequate and reliable data. However, I was lucky enough to receive some help from colleagues in Afghanistan. I would like to thank Engineer Haris Haidari of Sustainable Energy Services Afghanistan (SESA) for providing me with the wind speed data used in this thesis. In the end, I would like to appreciate the support of my parents, my fiancé and the rest of my family and friends. I am very happy to have undertaken this research and may the information presented here be a step toward building an energy independent Afghanistan. "And say: My Lord increase me in knowledge." Quran 20:114 vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................ vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................. viii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ x LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... xiii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND NOTATIONS ......................................................... xv 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Literature Review ................................................................................................. 5 1.3. Research Objective ............................................................................................... 9 2. RESOURCE QUALITY............................................................................................ 11 2.1. Datasets .................................................................................................................. 11 2.2. Wind Resource Characteristics .......................................................................... 14 2.2.1. Wind Speed ................................................................................................. 14 2.2.2. Turbulence Intensity (TI) ............................................................................ 22 2.2.3. Wind Direction............................................................................................ 25 2.2.4. Wind Shear.................................................................................................. 26 2.2.5. Wind Speed Distribution............................................................................. 28 2.2.6. Wind Power Density ................................................................................... 31 2.3. Wind Plant Output .............................................................................................. 32 2.4. Solar Resource Characteristics ........................................................................... 39 2.5. Solar PV Plant Output ........................................................................................ 42 3. ELECTRICITY DEMAND ....................................................................................... 47 3.1. Seasonal Profile ...................................................................................................... 48 3.2. Diurnal Profile .................................................................................................... 50 viii 4. RESOURCE VARIABILITY.................................................................................... 52 4.1. Seasonal and Daily Correlation .......................................................................... 52 4.2. Residual Load Duration Curves ......................................................................... 55 4.3. Penetration and Curtailment Levels ................................................................... 58 5. COST OF ENERGY GENERATION ....................................................................... 64 6. CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 68 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 71 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Map of Afghanistan ............................................................................................ 3 Figure 2. Share of energy generation sources in 2011 ........................................................ 5 Figure 3. Seasonal variation of wind speed and standard deviation in Uljato at 50 m height................................................................................................................................. 15 Figure 4. Seasonal variation of wind speed and standard deviation in Hotel Safid at 50 m height................................................................................................................................. 15 Figure 5. Monthly wind speed in Uljato and OAMS ........................................................ 16 Figure 6. Monthly wind speed in Hotel Safid and OAHR ................................................ 16 Figure 7. Changes in monthly average wind speeds in OAMS for the period from 2011 to 2013................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 8. Hotel Safid and Uljato annual average daily wind speed profile ...................... 18 Figure 9. Daily profile of measured wind speed in Uljato and OAMS ............................ 19 Figure 10. Daily profile of measured wind speed in Hotel Safid and OAHR .................. 20 Figure 11. Seasonal variation of wind speed diurnal profile in Hotel Safid ..................... 20 Figure 12. Seasonal variation of wind speed diurnal profile in Uljato ............................. 21 Figure 13. Autocorrelation function of measured wind speed in Hotel Safid and Uljato 22 Figure 14. Seasonal variation of TI in Hotel Safid and Uljato ......................................... 24 Figure 15. Daily variation of TI in Hotel Safid and Uljato ..............................................