A Review of Research Relevant to New Build Nuclear Power Plants in the UK Including new estimates of the CO2 implications of gas generating capacity as an alternative January 2013 Tyndall Manchester University of Manchester Manchester M13 9PL with Tyndall Centre Sussex University of Sussex Brighton BN1 9QE A research briefing commissioned by Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland. All views contained within are attributable to the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of researchers within the wider Tyndall Centre, University of Manchester, University of Sussex, Friends of the Earth or the report’s reviewers. Chapter 6 on the economics of nuclear power, was prepared by Jim Watson and Iulia Falcan at Tyndall Centre Sussex. All other chapters were prepared by Kevin Anderson, Christopher Jones, John Broderick and Stephen Glynn at Tyndall Manchester. The authors would like to thank Bea Jefferson, Tom Langridge and Vicki Ramsden at Tyndall Manchester for their assistance in compiling and preparing this report, as well as Steven Wallbridge, Mike Childs, Simon Bullock and the peer reviewers for their thoughtful comments and suggestions. All errors and omissions remain the authors’. 1 Contents 1 Contents ......................................................................................................................................... 3 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Structure ................................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Scope ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Research methodology ........................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Lead authors ........................................................................................................................... 7 3 Safety .............................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1 Reactor safety ......................................................................................................................... 8 3.2 Nuclear power and ionising radiation ................................................................................... 10 3.3 Nuclear safety and climate change adaption ....................................................................... 15 3.4 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 16 4 Radioactive waste management .................................................................................................. 17 4.1 Radioactive waste from nuclear power ................................................................................ 17 4.2 UK Radioactive waste policy ................................................................................................. 18 4.3 Impact of a new build nuclear programme on radioactive waste management ................. 21 4.4 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 22 5 Proliferation of nuclear weapons ................................................................................................. 23 5.1 Proliferation risk from a new UK reactor programme .......................................................... 23 5.2 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 23 6 Economics of nuclear power ........................................................................................................ 24 6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 24 6.2 A brief history of nuclear costs ............................................................................................. 24 6.3 Key terms and parameters .................................................................................................... 26 6.4 Comparing recent estimates for nuclear costs in the UK ..................................................... 28 6.5 Discussion .............................................................................................................................. 36 6.6 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 38 7 Siting and planning of low carbon generation ............................................................................. 41 7.1 The planning regime ............................................................................................................. 41 7.2 Site selection ......................................................................................................................... 42 7.3 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 44 8 Employment ................................................................................................................................. 45 8.1 Issues with employment models .......................................................................................... 45 3 8.2 Employment in nuclear power .............................................................................................. 46 8.3 UK Employment .................................................................................................................... 47 8.4 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 48 9 Issues in managing a low carbon grid .......................................................................................... 49 9.1 Issues associated with an entirely renewable grid ............................................................... 50 9.2 CCS as an alternative to nuclear power ................................................................................ 51 9.3 A mixed nuclear and renewables grid ................................................................................... 52 9.4 Connection to the grid .......................................................................................................... 53 9.5 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 54 10 Interactions between nuclear power and other low carbon technologies.................................. 56 10.1 Electricity generation as more than just technology ............................................................ 56 10.2 Aspects of compatibility ........................................................................................................ 56 10.3 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 58 11 CO2 Implications of substituting gas for nuclear power generation ............................................ 59 11.1 DECC Central scenario ........................................................................................................... 59 11.2 CCC Illustrative scenario........................................................................................................ 60 11.3 Nuclear capacity and generation in each scenario ............................................................... 61 11.4 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment ................................................................... 62 11.5 General assumptions ............................................................................................................ 64 11.6 Contextualising CO2 implications .......................................................................................... 67 11.7 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 70 12 Nuclear power and climate change mitigation pathways ............................................................ 72 12.1 Comparison of CCC and FoE Pathways to 2030 .................................................................... 72 12.2 Post 2030 .............................................................................................................................. 75 12.3 Discussion: How the Copenhagen Accord’s “on the basis of equity” reduces emissions budgets for the UK ............................................................................................................................ 75 13 References .................................................................................................................................... 79 14 Annex 1 – Terms of Reference ..................................................................................................... 90 4 2 Introduction This report has been commissioned by Friends of the Earth England Wales and Northern Ireland (FoE) to independently review evidence on key issues relating to the potential new fleet of nuclear power stations that may be built in the UK over the period 2017 to 2030. The report draws primarily on peer-reviewed academic literature