ANALYSIS The Economic Impact of the January 2020 PSPS and Kincade Fire on Sonoma County Prepared by Introduction Adam Kamins [email protected] The Kincade Fire and PG&E’s Public Safety Power Shutoff were the latest in the long line of Director economic disruptions that have plagued Sonoma County in recent years. Despite a series of Laura Ratz events that include the devastating October 2017 wildfires, the Russian River Flood, the Kincade [email protected] Economist Fire, and PG&E’s power shutoffs, the economy has continued to move forward. Colin Seitz [email protected] This is a testament to Sonoma County’s many assets, including its highly educated workforce, Associate Economist desirability as a tourist destination, and proximity to arguably the hottest economy of the past decade, that of the Bay Area. But as fear and frustration mounted this autumn in Sonoma County, Contact Us the question of just how costly recent economic disruptions have been has come to the fore. Email [email protected] In the pages that follow, this topic is examined in detail. The short-term impact on output and U.S./Canada property of the events of October and November is considered using the widely cited Moody’s +1.866.275.3266 Analytics methodology for quantifying economic shocks. Other recent events are examined EMEA as well, both to contextualize the Kincade Fire and PSPS, as well as to provide insight into the +44.20.7772.5454 (London) long-term ramifications for Sonoma County. The analysis is supported wherever possible by +420.224.222.929 (Prague) data that were gathered on the ground, including a survey of businesses that was conducted Asia/Pacific by the Sonoma County EDB. We also considered news accounts and information from state +852.3551.3077 and local authorities that was disseminated during and after both the PSPS and fire. All Others +1.610.235.5299 Web www.economy.com www.moodysanalytics.com MOODY’S ANALYTICS The Economic Impact of the PSPS and Kincade Fire on Sonoma County BY ADAM KAMINS, LAURA RATZ AND COLIN SEITZ he Kincade Fire and PG&E’s Public Safety Power Shutoff were the latest in the long line of economic disruptions that have plagued Sonoma County in recent years. Despite a series of events that include the T devastating October 2017 wildfires, the Russian River Flood, the Kincade Fire, and PG&E’s power shutoffs, the economy has continued to move forward. This is a testament to Sonoma County’s tober and November is considered using the and information from state and local au- many assets, including its highly educated widely cited Moody’s Analytics methodol- thorities that was disseminated during and workforce, desirability as a tourist destina- ogy for quantifying economic shocks. Other after both the PSPS and fire. tion, and proximity to arguably the hottest recent events are examined as well, both economy of the past decade, that of the Bay to contextualize the Kincade Fire and PSPS, Background Area. But as fear and frustration mounted as well as to provide insight into the long- Recent Performance this autumn in Sonoma County, the question term ramifications for Sonoma County. The Sonoma County is on firm footing, but of just how costly recent economic disrup- analysis is supported wherever possible by job growth is softening amid significant tions have been has come to the fore. data that were gathered on the ground, labor market tightness. Annual job growth, In the pages that follow, this topic is including a survey of businesses that was at just above 1%, is solid but unspectacular examined in detail. The short-term impact conducted by the Sonoma County EDB (see and is slightly behind the California and on output and property of the events of Oc- Table 1). We also considered news accounts regional averages. The performance among Table 1: Survey Results From Public Safety Power Shutoff # of businesses Reported loss of revenue Industry None Less than 25% 26% to 50% 51% to 75% 76% to 100% Accommodation/food services 15 12 10 4 29 Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services 2 1 1 0 3 Agriculture 19 13 4 4 8 Arts, entertainment, recreation, and educational services 17 16 8 3 9 Construction 11 10 3 3 3 Government 8 5 0 0 0 Healthcare and social assistance 5 10 5 2 12 Information, finance, real estate, technical, or professional services 61 43 21 4 28 Manufacturing 7 7 3 2 5 Other 19 3 2 0 4 Other services (except public administration) 0 1 3 0 5 Retail or wholesale trade 17 13 13 7 30 Transportation/warehousing 1 2 2 0 0 Utilities 2 1 0 0 0 Sources: Sonoma County EDB, Moody’s Analytics 2 JANUARY 2020 MOODY’S ANALYTICS Chart 1: Sonoma Tracks California Peers mission issued reso- typically tracks closely with final numbers lution ESRB-8 in July that may not be available until months, or Payroll employment, % change yr ago, 3-mo MA 2018, which supports even years, after the event has concluded.1 5 Sonoma Santa Barbara the de-energization Before delving into assumptions, it is 4 Santa Cruz Napa Marin of portions of its ser- important to clarify what this framework 3 vice territory in an ef- does and does not cover. Most significant, fort to mitigate wild- any cost estimates do not account for the 2 fire risks. The first of impact of lives that are lost. This, of course, 1 these events, which is the most severe ramification of any di- are referenced as saster, but because this involves costs that 0 Public Safety Power are far deeper than economic ones, they -1 Shutoffs, occurred in cannot be meaningfully quantified as part 15 16 17 18 19 October 2018. Since of an exercise like this. Further, assessing the Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics then, PSPS have been economic value of a lost human life tends Presentation Title, Date 1 implemented during to be an actuarial exercise that requires the county’s traditional drivers is bifurcat- weather conditions conducive to wildfires. detailed microdata. ed: Healthcare and manufacturing are driv- The PSPS outages became more com- Instead, estimates of the toll of a nega- ing robust gains while leisure/hospitality monplace and widespread in 2019. Sonoma tive event revolve around two key elements: payrolls have seesawed and remain roughly County, in particular, experienced five property damage and lost output. The unchanged from a year prior. unique shutoff events prior to, during and former tends to dominate when natural The county has moved back in line with its after the outbreak of the Kincade Fire, during disasters or other major negative shocks oc- peers in the state, slightly trailing Napa and which tens of thousands of Sonoma resi- cur. Hurricanes and fires, for example, can Santa Barbara but ahead of Monterey. The dents experienced days-long power outages. damage or destroy thousands of structures, jobless rate is trending lower once again, put- as well as personal property and vehicles. ting it within striking distance of its all-time Kincade Fire To quantify this impact, we leverage esti- low. Accordingly, the tightening labor market Despite the efforts of the PSPS, the Kin- mates from state and local officials along is driving modest acceleration in hourly earn- cade Fire broke out in the northeast portion with press reports to understand how many ings. The housing market is a mixed bag. Pric- of Sonoma County late on October 23 and structures have been compromised. Where es are only now recovering after moderating was only fully contained on November 6. possible, this is broken down into homes for the past year. Permit issuance is cooling The Kincade Fire was the largest in Sonoma versus commercial properties. However, if but remains elevated in light of rebuilding ef- County’s history, and though less damaging outside sources do not provide informa- forts that are still underway in the aftermath than the October 2017 wildfires, it forced tion on the value of the properties that of the Tubbs, Nuns and Atlas fires that oc- widespread evacuations throughout much were damaged, median single-family prices, curred during the fall of 2017. of the county, with approximately 180,000 compiled for each county by the National All told, Sonoma’s economy is perform- residents forced to vacate during the peak of Association of Realtors, can be used as a ing well and roughly tracking those of the fire. Physical damage was more limited. proxy for the value at risk. Multiplying the similarly sized metro areas in California (see According to CAL FIRE, 374 residential and number of homes damaged or destroyed by Chart 1). Supply constraints are growing in- commercial structures were destroyed, and the median or average price provides a sense creasingly evident as the national economy an additional 60 structures were damaged. of how much property damage is likely to ages into its longest expansion on record, occur, with additional adjustments made for and a thinning supply of workers coupled Methodology commercial real estate, where possible. with weaker demographics is reining in job Moody’s Analytics quantifies the impact Personal property is also factored into growth across the region. of exogenous shocks to local economies the damage calculations. Based on infor- on a regular basis. This most frequently mation from the Insurance Information Public Safety Power Shutoffs includes analysis of natural disasters such Institute, coverage for personal belong- California has experienced dramatic as hurricanes and wildfires, although other ings generally accounts for 50% to 70% of environmental changes in recent years, events such as snowstorms, power outages the insurance on the structure of a home.2 resulting in record drought, massive tree or terrorist attacks are also analyzed using mortality, record heat waves, and extreme- the same framework.