Regional Assessment of the Vulnerability and Resilience of Pacific Islands to the Impacts of Global Climate Change and Accelerated Sea-Level Rise SPREP Library Cataloguing-in-Publication International Conventions Relating to Marine Pollution Activities [Meeting] (1996 : Apia, Samoa) International Conventions Relating to Marine Pollution Activities : meeting report, Apia, Samoa, 2–6 December, 1996. – Apia, Samoa : SPREP, 1998. vi, 60 p. ; 29 cm ISBN: 982-04-0194-1 1. Marine pollution – Oceania – Congresses. 2. Marine pollution – Law and legislation – Oceania – Congresses. I. South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). II. Title. 341.7623 Published in June 1999 by the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme PO Box 240 Apia, Samoa Produced by SPREP’s South Pacific Biodiversity Conservation Programme with funding assistance from GEF, UNDP and AusAID Edited by Janet Garcia Layout and design by Frank Jones (Desktop Dynamics, Australia) Typeset in 10/12 Century Schoolbook Printed on recycled paper 90gsm Savannah Matt Art (60%) by Quality Print Ltd Suva, Fiji © South Pacific Regional Environment Programme, 1999. The South Pacific Regional Environment Programme authorises the reproduction of this material, whole or in part, in any form provided appropriate acknowledgement is given. Original Text: English SPREP South Pacific Regional Environment Programme Regional Assessment of the Vulnerability and Resilience of Pacific Islands to the Impacts of Global Climate Change and Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Published by the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme with financial assistance from GEF, UNDP and AusAID Contents A summary for policy makers I 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Terms of reference ................................................................................................. 1 2. The related issues of global climate change and accelerated sea level rise 2 2.1 Scientific perspectives ......................................................................................... 2 2.1.1 Global climate change ............................................................................. 2 2.1.2 Changes in global ...................................................................................... 4 2.1.3 Climate changes in the Pacific region ............................................. 4 2.1.4 Oceanic changes in the Pacific region ............................................. 7 2.1.5 Changes in the ENSO regime ............................................................. 8 2.1.6 Regional changes in extreme events, including tropical cyclones .......................................................................................................... 8 2.1.7 Decreasing the current regional uncertainties ........................ 10 2.2 The issues from environmental and disaster management and sustainable development perspectives ............................................ 10 3. Context of the current assessment 13 3.1 Historical context ................................................................................................ 13 3.2 Regional geopolitical context......................................................................... 16 3.3 Institutional context .......................................................................................... 17 3.4 Context provided by legal and related instruments .......................... 18 4. Institutional activities and linkages 21 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 21 4.2 South Pacific Regional Environment Programme .............................. 21 4.3 Forum Secretariat .............................................................................................. 21 4.4 South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission .................................. 21 4.5 The South Pacific Commission ..................................................................... 22 4.6 University of the South Pacific ..................................................................... 22 4.7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ...................................... 22 4.8 United Nations Environment Programme ............................................. 23 4.9 Commonwealth Secretariat ........................................................................... 23 4.10 Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific ............. 23 4.11 Australia ................................................................................................................. 23 4.12 France ....................................................................................................................... 23 4.13 SPREP/Japan Cooperation Projects .......................................................... 24 4.14 United States of America ................................................................................ 25 5. Vulnerability and resilience assessments: methodologies and findings 26 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 26 5.2 Review and assessment of methodologies ............................................... 26 5.2.1 The UNEP/SPREP/ASPEI methodologies .................................. 26 5.2.2 SPREP/UNEP Country Studies (Preparatory Missions).... 30 5.2.3 The IPCC Common Methodology for vulnerability assessment ................................................................................................ 30 iv 5.2.4 The SPREP/Japan Stress-Response Methodology ................. 33 5.2.5 IPCC guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation responses .................................................................. 34 5.2.6 Other methods and associated techniques ................................. 38 5.3 Findings ................................................................................................................... 39 5.4 Common findings in the country studies ................................................ 40 5.4.1 Physical changes to the environment ........................................... 40 5.4.2 Physical resources .................................................................................. 42 5.4.3 Living natural resources ..................................................................... 43 5.4.4 Extreme events ....................................................................................... 43 5.4.5 Agriculture, forestry and food security ........................................ 43 5.4.6 Human health .......................................................................................... 44 5.4.7 Commerce, transport and communications ............................... 45 5.4.8 Waste management ............................................................................... 45 5.4.9 Physical infrastructure ........................................................................ 45 6. Policies, strategies and priorities for response options 48 6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 48 6.2 Basic strategies for response options ........................................................ 48 6.3 Policy responses for Pacific island countries ......................................... 49 6.3.1 A policy of regional cooperation and coordination ................. 50 6.3.2 A policy of owning the issue of climate variability and change ................................................................................................ 50 6.3.3 A policy of maximising the benefits of climate change ........ 51 6.3.4 A policy to base plans and actions on factual understanding of climate change ................................................... 51 6.3.5 A policy of mainstreaming climate change responses in national planning ................................................................................... 51 6.3.6 A policy of enhancing capacities to respond to the consequences of anticipated changes in climate ..................... 51 6.3.7 A policy of enhancing regional security ....................................... 52 6.4 Priority policies .................................................................................................... 52 7. Proposed regional action strategies of high priority 53 7.1 A strategy for capacity building ................................................................... 53 7.2 A strategy for development and application of appropriate assessment methodologies and information sources ......................... 54 7.3 A strategy to identify, assess and implement technologies relevant to adaptation ...................................................................................... 54 7.4 A strategy to identify, assess and implement investment instruments relevant to adaptation ........................................................... 54 7.5 A strategy to support optimal management responses to climate change at the national level .................................................... 55 7.6 A strategy for regional support for integrated coastal zone management ............................................................................................... 55 8. Conclusions 56 9. Analysis and synthesis of the findings 57 10. References 60 v A summary for policy makers Summary Background Second Assessment Report manifest themselves