Education, Children and Families Committee 10am, Tuesday, 3 March 2020 School Roll Projections and Rising School Rolls Executive/routine Wards Council Commitments 1. Recommendations 1.1 The Education, Children and Families Committee is asked to: 1.1.1 Note the contents of the report; 1.1.2 Agree that the Council website will be updated with the projections included in the appendices. Alistair Gaw Executive Director for Communities and Families Contact: Robbie Crockatt, Learning Estate Planning Manager E-mail: [email protected] | Tel: 0131 469 3051 Education, Children and Families Committee 03 March 2020 v0.4 Report School Roll Projections and Rising School Rolls 2. Executive Summary 2.1 This report provides an update on the progress made in taking forward the actions and implications arising from the publication of School Roll Projections in December 2019. The actions included investigation of schools with projections showing significant accommodation pressures. Investigation of the figures for Buckstone and Boroughmuir identified an anomaly that cause both school’s projections to be overstated. Revised projections that make adjustments to counter this anomaly are included as Appendices 1 and 2. 2.2 In addition to the update on those schools identified in December 2019 as requiring investigation or the establishment of a Working Group, this paper provides an update on all ‘live’ Learning Estate Primary and Secondary School infrastructure projects being undertaken to address Rising Rolls or developments arising from the Local Development Plan. 3. Background 3.1 Background information can be found in the “School Roll Projections and Rising Rolls”,“Future Statutory Consultation Requirements” and “The Growing City, School Roll Projections and Future Accommodation Requirements” reports considered by the Education Children and Families Committee in December 2019, May 2019 and December 2018 respectively. 4. Main report School Roll Projections 4.1 In December 2019 the Education, Children and Families Committee considered the “School Roll Projections and Rising Rolls” paper which included the annual publication of the latest school roll projections covering the period from 2019-2029. 4.2 The projections continue to show that despite a falling birth rate, over the next ten years the overall primary school roll at city level is estimated to grow slightly while the secondary school roll is projected to rise sharply as the rising rolls experienced by primary schools in recent years move into that sector. 2 Education, Children and Families Committee 3 March 2020 V0.3 4.3 The new projections included categorisation of schools into one of four categories of action: 4.3.1 No Action Required 4.3.2 Monitoring 4.3.3 Investigation 4.3.4 Working Group 4.4 The “School Roll Projections and Rising Rolls” paper recommended that where investigative work or the establishment of a Working Group is required, a Rising Rolls update report will be provided to Committee in March 2020 outlining the conclusions reached and/or progress made. 4.5 Accordingly, this paper provides an update on the status of schools identified as requiring investigative work or requiring the establishment of a working group. This paper will also provide updates on other, ‘live’ or in progress Rising Rolls projects. Schools Identified as Requiring a Working Group 4.6 The 2019 School Roll Projections identified 3 schools as requiring a Working Group. A Rising Rolls Working Group typically consists of Council officers, members of the school’s management team and representatives from the school’s parent Council. The following table identifies the school’s where Rising Rolls Working Groups are required or have been formed and the latest status: School Why Form Working Progress Group Craigroyston High The capacity at Initial conversations with School School Craigroyston High School Management to identify likely pressure is 600 pupils. Projections points are in progress. The first Working show that the school will Group meeting will take place prior to increase annually over the Easter 2020. The latest S1 intake data next 10 years to a roll of from January 2020 suggests that an approximately 800 pupils. intake of 160 will be required – far exceeding the projected intake (120) for this year and the optimum intake limit for the school (120). Solutions to address this continuing growth will be required. Firhill High School The capacity at Firhill Initial conversations with School High School is 1,150 Management have taken place and the pupils. The roll in 2019 first Working Group meetings are being exceeded 1,200 pupils. scheduled. The latest S1 registration Projections suggest that data from January 2020 (208 S1 pupils) while it will not increase, is in line with projections (206 S1 the school will maintain pupils). However, should future S1 this high level over the intakes rise beyond those projected the next 10 years. high starting roll could cause issues. Accordingly, actions to address unexpected increases should be identified. 3 Education, Children and Families Committee 3 March 2020 V0.3 Gracemount High The capacity at The working group will consider options School Gracemount High School to provide extra capacity for is 650 pupils. Projections Gracemount High School. This will be show that the school will considered alongside other required increase annually over the investment including Early Years and St next 10 years to a roll of Catherine’s RC Primary School. approximately 830 pupils. Schools Identified as Requiring Investigative Work 4.7 If a projection suggests accommodation pressures in the next few years of a magnitude that would cause significant concern and there are no mitigating measures already proposed, the detail of the projection will be investigated to determine whether the methodology used is appropriate for that particular school or there are circumstances not captured by the existing methodology that need to be considered. The following table identifies the school’s where Investigative Work has been suggested and the conclusions: School Why Investigate Conclusions / Recommendations Buckstone Primary School capacity is 462 The number of P1 pupils projected in School pupils and the roll in 2019 2020 is skewed by a spike in birth rate was 431 pupils. which has affected the P1/births ratio. Projections suggest that The projected P1 was 125 pupils but the the roll in August 2020 will early P1 registration data is in line with increase to 502 pupils and the capacity of the school. then rise in August 2021 to 551 pupils. Updated primary and secondary projections are provided in Appendices 1 and 2 respectively. No actions are required. Bun-sgoil Taobh na School capacity is 462 Projecting GME uptake is difficult. Pairce pupils and the roll in 2019 However, the projected P1 intake for was 424 pupils. August 2020 is 74 pupils. As of January Projections suggest that 2020 there were 69 registrations and 9 the roll will grow to 500 requests in from out of authority. pupils by 2023. Previous experience suggests that this will drop rather than increase which suggests that this year’s projection is likely to be reasonably accurate if not a little high. It is recommended that this intake be monitored. Forthview Primary School capacity is 434 Projections suggest the P1 intake in School pupils and the roll in 2019 August 2020 would be 66 pupils. was 412 pupils. The number of P1 pupils actually Projections suggest that registered in January 2020 was 62. 4 Education, Children and Families Committee 3 March 2020 V0.3 the roll will grow to 440 Previous experience suggests that this pupils by 2022. will drop before August 2020 and an intake of less than 60 is likely. Accordingly, no immediate pressures are anticipated. No actions are required. Nether Currie School capacity is 210 The projected P1 intake for August 2020 Primary School pupils and the roll in 2019 is 25 pupils. As of January 2020 there was 175 pupils. were 24 registrations. Projections suggest that Families moving into existing housing the roll will grow to 300 stock within the Nether Currie catchment pupils after 10 years. in the last five years has led to P1 levels being almost double the birth rate. This has created a very high birth-to-P1 factor when compared to the wider city. This factor has been applied to the births in the new larger catchment area which in turn may have created artificially high P1 projections. It is recommended that this intake be monitored. St Francis RC School capacity is 315 The ability to prioritise baptised RC Primary School pupils and the roll in 2019 pupils means that there are greater was 264 pupils. controls available where RC schools are Projections suggest that concerned. The number of P1 the roll will grow to 359 registrations for August 2020 is pupils by 2027. consistent with the capacity of the school. It is recommended that this intake be monitored. Balerno High School School capacity is 850 The 2019 projection for Balerno High pupils and the roll in 2019 School is nearly 200 pupils higher than was 752 pupils. the 2018 projections. It is expected that Projections suggest that out of catchment places will fill the S1 to the roll will grow to 1091 its 160 capacity until 2023. Beyond 2023 pupils over the next 10 the number of catchment pupils retained years. will exceed 160 pupils. In the longer term Balerno is part of the WAVE4 programme. It is recommended that this intake be monitored. Boroughmuir High School capacity is 1,150 The Boroughmuir projections for 2018 & School pupils and the roll in 2019 2019 follow a similar trajectory until was 1,310 pupils. An 2026 where the 2019 projections extension to the school continue to increase while the 2018 building will increase the projections start to plateau. capacity to 1,560 pupils This is principally due to the skewed from August 2021.