Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 1607–1672, 2014 www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/5/1607/2014/ doi:10.5194/esdd-5-1607-2014 ESDD © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 5, 1607–1672, 2014 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Earth System The ocean carbon Dynamics (ESD). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ESD if available. sink – impacts, vulnerabilities, and The ocean carbon sink – impacts, challenges vulnerabilities, and challenges C. Heinze et al. 1,2 1 1 3 4 5 C. Heinze , S. Meyer , N. Goris , L. Anderson , R. Steinfeldt , N. Chang , Title Page C. Le Quéré6, and D. C. E. Bakker7 Abstract Introduction 1Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway Conclusions References 2Uni Research Climate, Bergen, Norway Tables Figures 3Department of Chemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden 4Department of Oceanography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany J I 5 Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observatory, Natural Resources and the Environment, J I CSIR, Stellenbosch, South Africa 6Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Back Close Norwich Research Park, Norwich, UK 7Centre for Ocean and Atmosphere Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, Full Screen / Esc University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, UK Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 1607 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Received: 17 November 2014 – Accepted: 19 November 2014 – Published: 5 December 2014 Correspondence to: C. Heinze (christoph.heinze@gfi.uib.no) ESDD Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 5, 1607–1672, 2014 The ocean carbon sink – impacts, vulnerabilities, and challenges C. Heinze et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures J I J I Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 1608 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract ESDD Carbon dioxide (CO2) is, next to water vapour, considered to be the most important nat- 5, 1607–1672, 2014 ural greenhouse gas on Earth. Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions such as fossil-fuel burning, land-use change or cement production 5 over the past 250 years have given cause for concern that changes in Earth’s climate The ocean carbon system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past sink – impacts, 20 000 years. Investigating global carbon cycle pathways and finding suitable mitiga- vulnerabilities, and tion strategies has, therefore, become of major concern in many research fields. The challenges oceans have a key role in regulating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and currently 10 take up about 25 % of annual anthropogenic carbon emissions to the atmosphere. C. Heinze et al. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon load will affect its ecosystems and their services. This requires comprehensive investigations, includ- Title Page ing high-quality ocean carbon measurements on different spatial and temporal scales, Abstract Introduction 15 the management of data in sophisticated data bases, the application of state-of-the-art Earth system models to provide future projections for given emission scenarios as well Conclusions References as a global synthesis and outreach to policy makers. In this paper, the current under- Tables Figures standing of the ocean as an important carbon sink is reviewed with respect to these topics. Emphasis is placed on the complex interplay of different physical, chemical, and J I 20 biological processes that yield both positive and negative air–sea flux values for natural J I and anthropogenic CO2 as well as on increased CO2 (uptake) as the regulating force of the radiative warming of the atmosphere and the gradual acidification of the oceans. Back Close Major future ocean carbon challenges in the fields of ocean observations, modelling, and process research as well as the relevance of other biogeochemical cycles and Full Screen / Esc 25 greenhouse gases are discussed. Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 1609 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 1 Historic background ESDD In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide (CO2) occurs only in a very small fraction (currently around 400 ppm; ppm = parts per million of volume), but yet it is considered to be the 5, 1607–1672, 2014 most important natural greenhouse gas next to water vapour. Its importance in regulat- 5 ing the global heat budget has already been known since the late 19th century (Arrhe- The ocean carbon nius, 1896). After the discovery of the CO2 molecule’s structure, scientists were able sink – impacts, to depict the greenhouse effect: vibrational motions of the gas molecules resonate with vulnerabilities, and the thermal radiation leaving Earth’s surface at discrete wavelength intervals, thereby challenges heating up the lower atmosphere (e.g. Barrett, 2005; Tomizuka, 2010). The outgoing 10 thermal radiation is long-wave electromagnetic radiation as opposed to the short-wave C. Heinze et al. incoming solar radiation. Without this process, i.e. the natural greenhouse effect, an average temperature of −19 ◦C would dominate Earth’s surface instead of the actual average value of around 15 ◦C (Ramanathan et al., 1987). Title Page The pre-industrial level of atmospheric CO2 expressed as a volume mixing ratio had Abstract Introduction 15 been around 280 ppm with minor fluctuations around this level (Siegenthaler et al., 2005) due to the natural variability of carbon reservoirs on land and in the ocean as Conclusions References well as volcanic activities and a small remaining trend going back to the last deglacia- Tables Figures tion (Menviel and Joos, 2012). The onset of the industrialisation and the Anthropocene as the era of fundamental human impact on the Earth system (Crutzen, 2002) can be J I 20 dated around 1776 when the improved design of the steam engine by James Watt en- abled its operational use. The 300 ppm boundary was crossed in 1912 (Etheridge et al., J I 2001). At the beginning of the instrumental record of atmospheric CO2 in 1958, its con- Back Close centration was around 315 ppm (Keeling et al., 2001). Ten years ago (2003), we had arrived at 375 ppm. And now, we are crossing the 400 ppm level (400.01 ppm as of 25 Full Screen / Esc 25 May 2013; Fig. 1; Keeling et al., 2013). The largest contributor to this human-induced Printer-friendly Version CO2 release is firstly the burning of fossil fuel reserves, which normally would have been isolated from the atmosphere (Boden et al., 2011). Secondly, land-use change is Interactive Discussion a significant contributor followed by cement production (Houghton, 1999; Boden et al., 1610 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 2011). The warming effect due to the combustion of fossil fuel by human beings was first suggested and analysed by Callendar (1938). Since then, scientists have made ESDD attempts to quantify the fate of fossil fuels in conjunction with the natural carbon cycle. 5, 1607–1672, 2014 Bolin and Eriksson (1959) came up with a first estimate of the ultimate uptake capacity 5 of the ocean for fossil fuel CO2 from the atmosphere: about 11=12 of CO2 emissions would ultimately accumulate in the ocean water column after repeated oceanic mix- The ocean carbon ing cycles and interaction with the calcareous sediment, a process requiring several sink – impacts, 10 000 years (see also Archer, 2005). vulnerabilities, and When it comes to the importance of human-produced greenhouse gases for chang- challenges 10 ing the atmospheric heat budget and, hence, the climate system, CO2 is by far the most C. Heinze et al. important one. Other radiatively active trace gases like methane (CH4), halocarbons, and nitrous oxide (N2O) have a higher greenhouse potential per molecule than CO2, but are less abundant in the atmosphere than CO , so that CO is the most important 2 2 Title Page anthropogenic driving agent of climate change (Myhre et al., 2013). The focus of this 15 review is, thus, on CO2 and the oceanic (“carbon”) sink. Future CO2 emission scenarios Abstract Introduction to drive climate models have been produced on empirical evidence concerning human Conclusions References behaviour and economics. In view of the on-going high energy use in wealthy nations and the accelerating energy production in emerging economies (especially China and Tables Figures India; see Raupach et al., 2007), current and recent annual CO2 emission rates are at 20 the levels of the most pessimistic emission scenario as produced a few years ago for J I the climate projections of the 5th assessment report of the IPCC (RCP scenarios; van Vuuren et al., 2011a, b; Peters et al., 2013). Considering the key role of the oceans in J I the global carbon budget it is therefore fundamental to broaden our knowledge on their Back Close past, present, and future quantitative impact in regulating atmospheric CO concentra- 2 Full Screen / Esc 25 tions. Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 1611 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 2 The role of the oceans for carbon cycling ESDD The oceans regulate atmospheric CO2 mainly by two mechanisms: the first consists of 5, 1607–1672, 2014 the abiotic inorganic cycling of carbon that involves CO2 gas exchange, CO2 dissolu- tion and hydration to carbonic acid, dissociation of carbonic acid as well as transport 5 and mixing of total dissolved CO2 in seawater. The second mechanism describes the The ocean carbon cycling of carbon due to biological activity. The following chapter will describe the cur- sink – impacts, rent understanding of these processes and briefly summarize their importance with vulnerabilities, and regard to anthropogenic CO2 perturbations.