Automobiles Honda: A formidable competition – Incumbents beware !! April 25, 2013 Honda is making a huge inroad in the Indian Automobile sector. On one hand, Honda Motorcycle and Scooters India (HMSI) has overtaken Bajaj Auto (BJA) as the second Surjit Arora highest two-wheeler manufacturer on account of new launches and capacity [email protected] expansion (scooters + motorcycles), while on the other, Honda Cars India has +91-22-66322235 forayed into the Diesel segment with its first offering ‘Amaze’ which is attractively priced to take the competition head-on. In this report, we analyse Honda’s market Update share in both the segments and what it means for the incumbents. In motorcycles, we believe HMSI would further increase its market share by 210-220bps, whereas in the Passenger car segment, we estimate 190-200bps gain in FY14E for Honda. Stock Performance Sector (%) 1M 6M 12M ! Motorcycle segment to grow by 9%, mainly driven by 30% growth likely by Sensex 2.4 2.5 11.5 HMSI: Led by new launches from HMSI, mainly 110cc ‘Dream Yuga’ and the Auto 3.5 3.1 (1.1) recently launched 110cc ‘Dream Neo’, HMSI is likely to grow its motorcycle volumes by ~30% in FY14E. The company has already increased its capacity of Bajaj Auto 0.1 2.6 9.1 two‐wheelers from 2.8m to 4.0m units. As a result, we foresee its market share Hero Motocorp (2.7) (14.1) (29.9) further improving by 220‐230bps to 14.0% (from 7.7% in FY12). Given the strong Maruti Suzuki 19.5 12.2 11.2 growth expected from HMSI, we expect the incumbents to lose 40bps -120bps in market share in FY14E. Hence, we are cautious on the two-wheeler space. The overall motorcycle segment is likely to grow at 9.1% YoY in FY14E (excl. HMSI, growth is expected at 6.3%). Stock Data ! Honda to gain 200bps in market share in FY14E in the passenger car segment: CMP (Rs) TP (Rs) PE (x) Honda has recently forayed into the diesel segment with its offering ‘Amaze’ FY14E FY15E which takes the competition head on, given its attractive pricing and better Bajaj Auto 1,805 1,717 15.5 13.7 features. Honda’s stated fuel efficiency is 10% more than that of ‘Dzire’ with Hero Motocorp 1,574 1,501 14.7 10.9 33% more power and price points in line with the Dzire. However, given the Maruti Suzuki 1,536 1,690 18.9 14.2 reach of MSIL on account of its wide distribution network, we don’t see a major impact on MSIL’s overall passenger car market share, although we have built in some moderation in the ‘Dzire’ sales (Avg. sales estimated at 15,500/month as against a 17‐18,000/ month run rate recently). We believe other competitors would face stiff competition from Honda ‘Amaze,’ mainly Toyota ‘Etios’, How we differ from Consensus Volkwagen’s ‘Vento’ and Ford’s ‘Fiesta.’ We built a 190-200bps improvement in EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff. market share for Honda in the passenger car segment in FY14E. On account of Bajaj Auto lower base for MSIL and entry of Honda in the diesel segment, we expect the 2014 116.3 128.8 ‐9.7 passenger car segment to grow at 2.9% YoY in FY14E. 2015 132.1 144.5 ‐8.6 ! Maintain our ‘Reduce’ call on two‐wheelers, BUY on MSIL: With exports, three- Hero Motocorp wheeler and spares (higher margin business) accounting for ~50% of its FY14E 2014 106.7 113.9 ‐6.3 turnover, we believe BJA is a better place to mitigate the impact of slowdown in 2015 143.7 144.6 ‐0.6 the two-wheeler industry. However, valuations seem demanding at 15.5x FY14E EPS and 13.7x FY15E EPS for BJA (8.6% CAGR for FY12-FY15E) and 14.7x FY14E Maruti Suzuki EPS and 10.9x FY15E EPS for HMCL (8.3% CAGR for FY12-FY15E). We maintain 2014 89.1 96.8 ‐7.9 our ‘Reduce’ call on two-wheelers on account of increased competition from 2015 116.9 122.1 ‐4.3 HMSI. In our view, MSIL is the best play on recovery in the macroeconomic situation. We maintain our positive stance on MSIL, but given the run up of ~14% since our upgrade from ‘Accumulate’ to ‘BUY’ on Feb 28, 2013, we foresee a moderate upside of 10-11% from the current levels. Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report Automobiles Exhibit 1: Two‐wheeler sector snapshot Avg. Domestic Monthly Sales Key New Launches Scooter (FY14E) Motorcycle (FY14E) Share in Market Share Share in Market Share Scooters Motorcycles Scooters Motorcycles portfolio (%) (%) portfolio (%) (%) 110cc Passion 110cc - Hero Motocorp 56,000 477,000 X Pro 125cc - 10.5% 21.2% 89.5% 52.0% Maestro Ignitor Discover 125 Bajaj Auto NA 220,000 NA ST Pulsar NA NA 64.0% 24.0% 200 NS 110cc Dream Honda Motorcycles & 110cc Dio 130,000 128,000 Yuga 51.5% 49.3% 48.5% 14.0% Scooters India 110cc Activa & Dream Neo 100cc TVS 125cc new TVS Motor 36,000 47,000 25.0% 13.6% 32.5% 5.1% Qube Bike Source: Company Data, PL Research New Launches Scooter Hero’s ‘Maestro’ Honda’s ‘Dio’ Suzuki’s ‘Swish’ Motorcycles Hero’s ‘Ignitor’ Honda’s ‘Dream Neo’ Bajaj’s 125 ST ‘Discover’ Source: Company Data, PL Research April 25, 2013 2 Automobiles Scooter segment to grow by 8.3%, mainly driven by HMCL and HMSI Led by success of the ‘Maestro’, HMCL has already improved its market share by 260bps YoY in FY13. We expect HMCL to further improve its share in the scooters segment by 240bps in FY14E to 21.2%. We expect HMCL to capture market share from TVS motors as well as M&M in the segment. Given the strong hold of HMSI in the scooter segment and the enhanced capacity, we expect HMSI to register a 10% growth in volumes in FY14E. HMSI, in our view, is likely to maintain its lead, with a moderate improvement in its market share to 49.3%, an increase of 70bps YoY in FY14E. Exhibit 2: FY14 volume projection – Scooter Segment (Nos) Monthly Avg. Monthly Avg. Companies 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 FY13 FY14 Hero MotoCorp Ltd 414,389 549,808 672,000 45,817 56,000 YoY gr. (%) 32.7 22.2 MS (%) 16.2 18.8 21.2 Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (Pvt) Ltd 1,224,579 1,420,115 1,560,000 118,343 130,000 YoY gr. (%) 16.0 9.9 MS (%) 47.9 48.6 49.3 India Yamaha Motor Pvt Ltd 0 60,281 66,000 5,023 5,500 YoY gr. (%) 9.5 MS (%) NA 2.1 2.1 Mahindra Two Wheelers Ltd 134,518 101,530 86,400 8,461 7,200 YoY gr. (%) (24.5) (14.9) MS (%) 5.3 3.5 2.7 Piaggio Vehicles Pvt Ltd — 38,718 51,000 3,227 4,250 YoY gr. (%) — 31.7 MS (%) 0.0 1.3 1.6 Suzuki Motorcycle India Pvt Ltd 288,603 328,766 300,000 27,397 25,000 YoY gr. (%) 13.9 (8.7) MS (%) 11.3 11.2 9.5 TVS Motor Company Ltd 496,892 424,183 432,000 35,349 36,000 YoY gr. (%) (14.6) 1.8 MS (%) 19.4 14.5 13.6 Total 2,558,981 2,923,401 3,167,400 243,617 263,950 YoY gr. (%) 14.2 8.3 8.3 Source: SIAM Data, PL Research April 25, 2013 3 Automobiles Motorcycle segment to grow by 9.1%, mainly driven by HMSI Led by new launches from HMSI, mainly 110cc ‘Dream Yuga’ and the recently launched 110cc ‘Dream Neo’, HMSI is likely to grow its motorcycle volumes by ~30% in FY14E. The company has already increased its capacity of two-wheelers from 2.8m to 4.0m units. As a result, we foresee its market share further improving by 220- 230bps to 14.0% (from 7.7% in FY12). Exhibit 3: FY14 volume projection ‐ Motorcycle Segment (Nos) Monthly Avg. Monthly Avg. Companies 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 FY13 FY14 Bajaj Auto Ltd 2,566,757 2,463,863 2,640,000 205,322 220,000 YoY gr. (%) (4.0) 7.1 MS (%) 25.5 24.4 24.0 Hero MotoCorp Ltd 5,628,513 5,362,730 5,724,000 446,894 477,000 YoY gr. (%) (4.7) 6.7 MS (%) 55.9 53.2 52.0 Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (Pvt) Ltd 771,715 1,186,726 1,536,000 98,894 128,000 YoY gr. (%) 53.8 29.4 MS (%) 7.7 11.8 14.0 India Yamaha Motor Pvt Ltd 355,493 302,562 318,000 25,214 26,500 YoY gr. (%) (14.9) 5.1 MS (%) 3.5 3.0 2.9 Royal Enfield (Unit of Eicher Ltd) 78,546 120,694 138,000 10,058 11,500 YoY gr. (%) 53.7 14.3 MS (%) 0.8 1.2 1.3 Suzuki Motorcycle India Pvt Ltd 50,081 85,211 72,000 7,101 6,000 YoY gr.