VIEWS AND ANALYSES FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT ISSUE 14 • 2011 the african.orgwww.the-african.org • THE ALTERNATE-MONTHLY MAGAZINE OF THE INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES Hope as a new country is born TROUBLE INSIDE FESTIVALS BREWING ANGOLA’s SHOWCASING IN BURKINA SHADOW AFRICA’s FASO STATE TALENT Angola K500 • Botswana P20.00 • Côte D’Ivoire Cfa3 000 • Democratic Republic of the Congo Cfa3 000 • Ethiopia B20.00 Gambia D50.00 • Ghana C4.00 • Kenya Sh300.00 • Malawi K5 000 • Mozambique R29.00 Namibia $29.00 • Nigeria N500.00 • Tanzania Sh7 000 • Uganda Sh7 000 • Zambia K15 000 • Zimbabwe R29.00 South Africa R29.00 (incl VAT) • UK £4.00 • US $6.00 • Europe €6.95 covers African.org 13.indd 2 2011/05/24 12:04 PM Editorial Nothing like a clean war Dear Reader… soul-searching of why the Libyan air raids Five months down the line the conflict are taking so long to achieve their goal, oth- is still raging – at a huge cost. ers, more cynical, believe the end will not he official inauguration of an inde- even be in sight before the end of the year. Following the dramatic events in pendent South Sudan was for An argument heard in the Arab world North Africa, two previously relatively many an immensely joyful occa- is that the allies – France, Britain and the stable West African countries, Burkina sion, but for others a traumatic US – are confident that the rebuilding of Faso and Senegal, have also experienced Tevent that signalled the failure of ‘making Libya will be portioned out to their com- popular protests. unity attractive’. panies, financed by Libyan oil, ‘just like in In both countries the president seems Many are asking, what does this mean Iraq’. Delaying the end game will therefore increasingly unpopular and is accused of for other states struggling to accommo- be in their interest. overstaying his welcome. date regional, religious and ethnic differ- This is certainly not the impression one Blaise Compaoré from Burkina Faso ences? And what are the implications for a gets from debates in the European media. has been in power since 1987 and Sene- viable state in South Sudan? The French weekly Le Nouvel Obser- gal’s Abdoulaye Wade (85) is insisting on Over a number of issues the-african.org vateur, for example, recently listed all the being a candidate in elections in 2012. has reported on the unfolding events in possible reasons for the failure of the air People’s frustration with their leaders is what used to be Africa’s largest country, raids to achieve a speedy resolution. compounded by increasing poverty. Even Sudan. those who manage to make a fairly This time we look at the new leaders Five months down the line decent living have to cope with constant taking over Africa’s youngest country – a power cuts, lack of services, bad roads former liberation movement with severe the conflict is still raging – and a general rise in food prices. internal strife and huge challenges ahead. At this stage it isn’t clear where In two separate interviews the ambas- at a huge cost these protests will lead. President sadors to South Africa from South Sudan Wade doesn’t seem willing to let go of and the Republic of Sudan also give their These include internal problems in the idea of having his son Karim Wade views on what this means. NATO, the unwillingness of the US to take over from him and is using all man- Strikingly, both men seem to be offer- fully commit its sophisticated weaponry ners of persuasion – including perks and a ing a hand of friendship to the other, and the weakness of the members of the rise in status for traditional leaders – to realis ing the many commonalities be- Libyan National Transitional Council. pull this off. tween the new neighbours. Added to this of course is the fact that In Burkina Faso senior members of Dark clouds gather, though, due to the the no-fly zone lobby underestimated the army, who started the protests, were intensifying disputes in border regions Gaddafi. dismissed to prevent the possibility of a and over the many outstanding issues still Who, for example, would have guessed full-blown coup. to be resolved through discussions be- that he would buy hundreds of pick-up Yet Compaoré is certainly in trouble. tween the North and South. trucks in Mali and Niger that resemble The example of these two countries, If independence had been a way to those used by the rebels, to confuse the including what we are increasingly seeing end the continuing wars between the two allied pilots? African experts, however, in Malawi, Uganda, Swaziland and else- parts of Sudan, it would be tragic if could have told France about this even be- where, is an indication that anti-govern- conflicts once again broke out across the fore the war had started. ment protests by disgruntled citizens region over land and resources. ‘There is nothing like a quick and could lead to even more dramatic events clean war,’ said South African independ- than what we have seen in North Africa. Meanwhile, as we go to print, the war ent defense expert Mr. Helmoed-Romer I hope you will enjoy this issue and in Libya is continuing to divide the Heitman at a conference held at the ISS in continue to send your own views and African Union and stir strong emotions Pretoria on 24 March, when the ink on analysis of events unfolding in Africa. across the continent. UN Security Council Resolution 1973 While the NATO countries, especially permitting a no-fly zone over Libya was Liesl Louw-Vaudran France, are increasingly engaged in a somber barely dry. [email protected] www.the-african.org August | September 2011 1 Contents August | September 2011 Newswatch 5 Liberia, In this issue Senegal, SA Upcoming 7 events SADC, Zambia, Cameroon Cover Feature 8 South Sudan Independence: Can the leaders hold it together? 11 South 11 Sudan Independence: Joy and celebrations South 8 14 Sudan Independence Interviews: Envoys from the North and South 2 Credits Angola Inside the 18 32 .FEJB-JNJUFE VIEWS AND ANALYSES FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT Shadow State ISSUE 14 • 2011 the african.orgwww.the-african.org • THE ALTERNATE-MONTHLY MAGAZINE OF THE INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES Hope as a new country is born TROUBLE INSIDE FESTIVALS BREWING ANGOLA’S SHOWCASING IN BURKINA SHADOW AFRICA’S Economy FASO STATE TALENT COVER: Angola K500 • Botswana P20.00 • Côte D’Ivoire Cfa3 000 • Democratic Republic of the Congo Cfa3 000 • Ethiopia B20.00 Gambia D50.00 • Ghana C4.00 • Kenya Sh300.00 • Malawi K5 000 • Mozambique R29.00 Namibia $29.00 • Nigeria N500.00 • Tanzania Sh7 000 • Uganda Sh7 000 • Zambia K15 000 • Zimbabwe R29.00 Comment South Africa R29.00 (incl VAT) • UK £4.00 • US $6.00 • Europe €6.95 PHOTO COMPOSITION 36 PUBLISHERS Mail & Guardian Media Grosvenor Corner Development as 195 Jan Smuts Avenue, Rosebank Johannesburg 2193, South Africa Tel: +27 11 250 7300 an afterthought Fax: +27 11 250 7502 EDITOR Liesl Louw-Vaudran Business North EDITORIAL BOARD How to Paul-Simon Handy Africa 38 Hennie van Vuuren 18 Issaka Souare free trade from Cheryl Hendriks Morocco’s King Andrews Atta-Assamoah Cape to Cairo David Zounmenou pre-empting Sandra Adong Oder Lansana Gberie revolution? COPY EDITOR Culture Sasha Evans S A’s PROOFREADER North 40 Iolandi Pool Grahams town Africa PRODUCTION MANAGER 20 Festival Trudy-Lee Rutkowski A chance for DESIGN Pilgrim Communications g ender equality PHOTOGRAPHY Culture Paul Botes PUBLISHER FOR M&G MEDIA Burkina 43 Continental Anastacia Martin round-up COVER IMAGE 22 Faso Lauren Hutton Blaise Compaoré in trouble Book 44 Reviews Institute for Security Studies: Block C, Brooklyn Court African Veale Street New Muckleneuk Sign Pretoria/Tshwane 0181 Union Tel: +27 12 346 9500/2 25 off The AU setting 48 COPYRIGHT M&G Media Ltd and the-african.org. No part of this magazine may be reproduced in any form without written itself up to fail consent of the publishers. DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed are the responsibility of the authors and not those 33 of The Institute of Security Studies, its UN Council, Trustees, any funder or sponsor of the ISS or M&G Media Ltd. 28 Security SUBSCRIPTIONS AND Council No DISTRIBUTION Helen Chanda more backdoor Tel: +27 12 346 9500 diplomacy email: [email protected] www.the-african.org August | September 2011 3 Contributors ILLIAM MERVIN GUMEDE is a WSouth African author and commentator. He is the author of the acclaimed Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANC and co-editor of The Poverty of Ideas. He is currently Honorary Associate, Graduate School of Public and Development Management FRENCH, THE OTHER (P&DM), Johannesburg. AFRICAN LANGUAGE! AULA CRISTINA ROQUE is a researcher specialising in Angola French is already spoken by half the popula tion of P Africa. Trade with francophone African countries is and Sudan. She previously held the fast developing, there by increasing the need to speak post of Senior Researcher in the French in commercial, medical, engineering, educa- African Conflict Prevention tio nal, tourist and other sectors. Programme at the ISS and is ➢ We are the largest and oldest French-language currently completing her PhD at learning centre in South Africa. Teaching French Oxford University on post-conflict is our main business. nation and state building. ➢ Our teachers are trained, experienced and mostly native-French speakers. We offer the HERYL HENDRICKS is a senior widest variety of courses at all levels at highly- research fellow at the ISS.