Annual Statistical Table on Global Mission: 1990 David B. Barrett he table opposite is the sixth in an annual series describing Nations' projected population statistics for A.D. 2000published forty years T statistics and trends. Each year this table has ended with an ago; fifty years of writings by secular futurists (for instance, H. Kahn's A.D. 2000 column of statistics, computed using current trends and rea­ TheYear 2000in 1967);the feeling among Christians that there must surely sonable projections. This year we concentrate on the context of this final be something significant in the end of two whole millennia of Christian column. endeavor; the emergence since 1970 of a large body of Christian literature on the year 2000; the rapid approach of the Millennial Year itself, now Mass Hysteria in A.D. 1000 only ten years away; and the current focus on the final decade of the Second Millennium, the years 1990 to 2000, as a Decade of Evangelism. In the year A.D. 960, Bernard of Thuringia predicted the imminent end of This decade is already being planned in detail by the different churches the world for the year A.D. 992. Alarm spread throughout Europe as the under a wide variety of names, and in over fifty languages: Decade of end of the first millennium approached. By A.D. 999, multitudes were Evangelism, Decade of Harvest, Decade of Destiny, Decade of Decision, journeying to Jerusalem to await the second coming of Christ as believed Universal Decade of Evangelization, Decade of World Evangelization, prophesied in the Apocrypha and expected in A.D. 1000. The millennial Decade of World Mission, Decada de Evangelizaci6n Mundial, and so year was preceded by widespread terrors as panic-stricken mobs thronged forth. All of these will climax on the first day of the twenty-first century, into Rome and Jerusalem to await the end. Richard Erdoes, in his new which will be, strictly speaking, 1 January 200l. book, A.D. 1000: Livingon the Brinkof Apocalypse (1988), vividly describes The magnetic power of this date is also evident in the Widespread the tension in St. Peter's basilica in Rome as the brilliant scientist Gerbert desire in the pentecostal/charismatic renewal to complete world evange­ of Aurillac, now Pope Sylvester II, celebrated midnight mass on New lization in order to "present Jesus with his 2,OOOth birthday present." Year's Eve, A.D. 999, regarded as the dreaded eve of the Millennium, the A problem with this which has not yet been realized is that if, as scholars Final Hour, the onset of the Day of Wrath. For centuries afterwards, hold, Jesus was actually born in 12 B.C. or 4 B.C., then either his bimillennial millennial fever gripped Christendom. By the year A.D. 1060, vast numbers birthday passed in 1988 or will arrive in 1996, not 2000. of medieval millenarian movements had arisen, involving millions of des­ perate rebels, radicals, and rootless poor seeking hope in a newer world. The Repulsion of the A.D. 2000 Date The mass panic engendered throughout the Dark Ages and the Mid­ dle Ages has been captured in an earlier classic, Norman Cohn's The By no means everybody, however, is enamored of the Millennial Year. Pursuitof the Millennium (1957, 1970). Many Christians are insisting it has no more significance than a date like 1997, 2002, or 2010. It has long been noticeable that a number of major The A.D. 2000 Megamagnet Christian organizations (WCC, WEF, LCWE, Sacred Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples) have not publicized any interest in A.D. 2000 As the year A.D. 2000 approaches, there are many parallels today to that thinking. Many such bodies are repelled by the prospects of millennial era. There are also some striking differences. First is the instantaneous hysteria. They have reacted either by deliberately ignoring it in all their speed with which modem communications can spread news, alarm, panic, public utterances or self-consciously setting different decadal dates. Thus even hysteria. Second is today's vast agenda of world missions. In A.D. the World Council of Churches has long avoided any statements about 999, the Christian multitudes were largely concerned with saving their 2000and instead has recently launched the Ecumenical Decade of Women own skins and had no interest in the fate of the world's 202 million for the period 1988 to 1998. unevangelized non-Christians of that time. Today, by contrast, Christians Another reason why the megamagnet repels many is that they imag­ are widely involved in schemes to evangelize the world, including its 1.3 ine that A.D. 2000 protagonists are identifying that year with the Second billion unevangelized persons. Coming of Christ. Very few protagonists have ever said anything of the Let us consider two features of the fascination produced today by sort. Almost universally they have disavowed any prophetic insights. the year A.D. 2000. Like a huge electromagnet or stellar magnetic field, For most supporters, the A.D. 2000 date is simply a mechanism very the Millennial Year is both attracting and repelling global Christianity much in tune with our times, with widespread acceptance in churches of with enormous force. Half the Christian world sees enormous significance planning, action plans, five-year plans, project management, deadlines, in this date; the other half denies any significance. and so forth. Further, many Christians feel totally accountable for the fate of their generation, usually reckoned as a thirty-year period of oppor­ The Attraction of the Millennial Year tunity. The sixty-six generations of Christians since A.D. 33 have each failed to evangelize the world; a target date as powerful as A.D. 2000 is a providential gift to be employed to the full. Most concerned Christians First, millions of Christians are greatly attracted to the A.D. 2000 date. Large numbers of plans to evangelize the world by the end of the century over forty years old realize that this may well be their last chance per­ are coming into existence today, in all branches of global Christianity. At sonally to do anything about world evangelization. present, some eighty global plans and over five hundred nonglobal plans have been announced with A.D. 2000 as their target date. Reasons for this A.D. 2000: The Probable Reality attraction are: widespread secular discussion of 2000 since the first United In conclusion, the last column's projections contain many surprises. Note line No. 65. A 1989 poll has shown that 62 percent of Britain's entire David B. Barrett, a contributing editor, has been an ordained missionary of the population watches Christian TVprograms regularly. Altogether, by 2000, Church Missionary Society since 1956. Anglican Research Officer since 1970, he radio/Tv listeners/viewers worldwide will have passed 2.1 billion, a mas­ is currently Research Consultant to the Southern Baptist Foreign Mission Board sive force. and consultant to other missions agencies in Europe and America. He lives in Let us hope that concerted coordination of the plans reported in line Richmond, Virginia. Methodological notes on the statistical table on the facing No. 74may also surprise us by causing the pessimistic A.D. 2000projections page maybereferred to in the INTERNATIONAL BULLETIN 13 (January 1989): 20. in lines Nos. 71-73 to be replaced by zero in each case. 26 INTERNATIONAL BULLETIN OF MISSIONARY RESEARCH STATUS OF GLOBAL MISSION, 1990, IN CONTEXT OF 20TH CENTURY Year: 1900 1970 1980 1990 2000 WORLD POPULATION I. Total population 1,619,886,800 3,610,034,400 4,373,917,500 5,297,042,000 6,259,642,000 2. Urban dwellers 232,694,900 1,354,237,000 1,797,479,000 2,414,450,100 3,160,381,900 3. Rural dwellers 1,387,191,900 2,255,797,400 2,576,438,500 2,882,591,900 3,099,260,100 4. Adult population 1,025,938,000 2,245,227,300 2,698,396,900 3,244,068,700 3,808,564,300 5. Literates 286,705,000 1,437,761,900 1,774,002,700 2,208,993,000 2,697,595,100 6. Nonliterates 739,233,000 807,465,400 924,394,200 1,035,075,700 1,110,969,200 WORLDWIDE EXPANSION OF CITIES 7. Metropolises (over 100,000 population) 400 2,400 2,700 3,450 4,200 8. Megacities (over 1 million population) 20 161 227 330 433 WORLD POPULATION BY RELIGION 9. Christians (total all kinds) 558,056,300 1,216,579,400 1,432,686,500 1,758,777,900 2,130,000,000 10. Muslims 200,102,200 550,919,000 722,956,500 934,842,200 1,200,653,000 II. Nonreligious 2,923,300 543,065,300 715,901,400 866,427,700 1,021,888,400 12. Hindus 203,033,300 465,784,800 582,749,900 705,345,900 859,252,300 13. Buddhists 127,159,000 231,672,200 273,715,600 323,349,500 359,092,100 14. Atheists 225,600 165,288,500 195,119,400 233,098,500 262,447,600 15. New-Religionists 5,910,000 76,443,100 96,021,800 117,589,100 138,263,800 16. Tribal religionists 106,339,600 88,077,400 89,963,500 99,424,000 100,535,900 17. Sikhs 2,960,600 10,612,200 14,244,400 18,152,800 23,831,700 18. Jews 12,269,800 15,185,900 16,938,200 17,719,800 19,173,600 19. Other religionists 400,907,100 246,406,600 233,620,300 221,314,200 143,503,600 GLOBAL CHRISTIANITY 20.