Lake Turkana & the Lower Omo: Hydrological Impacts of Major Dam & Irrigation Development REPORT African Studies Centre Sean Avery (BSc., PhD., C.Eng., C. Env.) © Antonella865 | Dreamstime © Antonella865 Consultant’s email: [email protected] Web: www.watres.com LAKE TURKANA & THE LOWER OMO: HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS OF MAJOR DAM & IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENTS CONTENTS – VOLUME I REPORT Chapter Description Page EXECUTIVE(SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................1! 1! INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 12! 1.1! THE(CONTEXT ........................................................................................................................................ 12! 1.2! THE(ASSIGNMENT .................................................................................................................................. 14! 1.3! METHODOLOGY...................................................................................................................................... 15! 2! DEVELOPMENT(PLANNING(IN(THE(OMO(BASIN ......................................................................... 18! 2.1! INTRODUCTION(AND(SUMMARY(OVERVIEW(OF(FINDINGS................................................................... 18! 2.2! OMO?GIBE(BASIN(MASTER(PLAN(STUDY,(DECEMBER(1996..............................................................19! 2.2.1! OMO'GIBE!BASIN!MASTER!PLAN!'!TERMS!OF!REFERENCE...........................................................................19! 2.2.2! OMO'GIBE!BASIN!MASTER!PLAN!'!WATER!&!IRRIGATION ...........................................................................20! 2.2.3! OMO'GIBE!BASIN!MASTER!PLAN!'!ENVIRONMENTAL!IMPACT!ASSESSMENT.............................................20! 2.2.4! OMO'GIBE!BASIN!MASTER!PLAN!–!ECOLOGY!SURVEY...................................................................................21! 2.2.5! LOWER!OMO!IRRIGATION!PROJECTS:!PRE'FEASIBILITY!STUDY!‘ENVIRONMENTAL!IMPACT’.................23! 2.2.6! OMO'GIBE!BASIN!MASTER!PLAN:!TRANS'BOUNDARY!IMPACTS ..................................................................24! 2.2.7! HYDROPOWER ........................................................................................................................................................25! 2.3! THE(OMO(BASIN(AND(IRRIGATION(–(“AN(EARLY(CANDIDATE(FOR(DEVELOPMENT”((WORLD(BANK) ... ( ................................................................................................................................................................. 26! 3! REVIEW(OF(OBJECTIONS(TO(GIBE(III(&(RELATED(STUDIES ................................................... 28! 3.1! INTRODUCTION(TO(THE(“DOWNSTREAM(IMPACTS”(OF(GIBE(III ...................................................... 28( 3.2(AFRICA(RESOURCES(WORKING(GROUP((ARWG(2009) .................................................................. 30( 3.3(AFRICAN(DEVELOPMENT(BANK(?(GIBE(III(INDEPENDENT(FEASIBILITY(STUDY(BY(MITCHELL( (MITCHELL,(2009) ............................................................................................................................31( 3.4(MOTT(MACDONALD(&(SOGREAH(CONSULTANTS(–(EFTA,(JULY(2009 ........................................... 32( 3.5(AFRICAN(DEVELOPMENT(BANK:(HYDROLOGICAL(IMPACTS(ON(LAKE(TURKANA,(NOVEMBER(2009( (AVERY,(2009)(&(NOVEMBER(2010((AVERY,(2010).................................................................... 33( 3.6(AFRICAN(DEVELOPMENT(BANK:(DRAFT(BASELINE(SURVEY(OF(LAKE(TURKANA(BASIN,(IRRIGATION( &(AGRICULTURE(COMPONENT((MAINA,(AFDB,(MAY(2010) .........................................................34( 3.7(SALINI(&(PIETRANGELI(–(GIBE(III(IMPACT(ON(LAKE(TURKANA(LAKE(LEVELS,(MARCH(2010( (SALINI(&(PIETRANGELI,(2010) ....................................................................................................... 34( 3.8(AFRICAN(DEVELOPMENT(BANK:(BASELINE(STUDY(OF(LAKE(TURKANA:(LIMNOLOGY(AND(FISHERY( (KAMAU,(AFDB,(2010) ....................................................................................................................35( 3.9(SOGREAH(CONSULTANTS(–(INDEPENDENT(REVIEW(OF(GIBE(III(ESIA,(MARCH(2010 ................... 35( 3.10(ETHIOPIAN(WILDLIFE(CONSERVATION(AUTHORITY(–(SEPTEMBER(2011...................................... 37( 3.11(OAKLAND(INSTITUTE:(LAND(INVESTMENT(DEALS(AND(LOWER(OMO .............................................. 39! L.Turkana & Lower Omo: Vol. I - Report ii African Studies Centre – October 2012 3.12! 14TH(WORLD(LAKE(CONFERENCE,(AUSTIN(2011(–(PRESENTATION(ON(IMPACTS(ON(LAKE( TURKANA............................................................................................................................................. 40! 3.13! UNEP(–(GIBE(III(IMPACT(ON(L.(TURKANA.........................................................................................41! 3.14! KETRACO(?(ESIA(OF(IMPACT(OF(GIBE(III(ON(LAKE(TURKANA’S(ECOSYSTEM................................ 42! 3.14.1! KENYA!–!ETHIOPIA!POWER!LINE.....................................................................................................................42! 3.14.2! PANAFCON!/!DHV!ESIA!–!IMPACT!OF!GIBE!III!ON!L.TURKANA,!2012...................................................42! 3.15! UNESCO’S(WORLD(HERITAGE(COMMITTEE(&(IUCN(–(L.(TURKANA(WORLD(HERITAGE(SITES( “ENDANGERED”(BY(GIBE(III,(2012.................................................................................................... 44! 3.16! HUMAN(RIGHTS(WATCH(–(ABUSES(IN(LOWER(OMO(VALLEY,(JUNE(2012 ...................................... 45! 3.17! ETHIOPIA(SUGAR(CORPORATION(“RESPONSE(TO(ACCUSATIONS”(–(JUNE(2012............................. 45! 3.18! SUMMARY(OF(VARIOUS(REPORT(FINDINGS .........................................................................................46! 4! IRRIGATION(WATER(DEMAND(IN(THE(OMO ............................................................................... 48! 4.1! SUMMARY(OF(REPORTED(IRRIGATION(POTENTIAL(WATER(DEMANDS ................................................ 48! 4.2! WAPCOS,(1990 ................................................................................................................................... 49! 4.3! FAO(ASSESSMENT,(1997 ......................................................................................................................49! 4.4! WORLD(BANK(CONCEPT(PAPER,(2004................................................................................................ 49! 4.5! IWMI(REPORT,(2007 ...........................................................................................................................49! 4.6! MOWR(DATA,(2009 ............................................................................................................................. 50! 4.7! CESI(SPA(&(MID?DAY(INTERNATIONAL(REPORT,(2009.................................................................... 50! 4.8! AFDB(REPORTS,(2009(?(2010 ............................................................................................................ 50! 4.9! SOGREAH(REPORT,(2010 ......................................................................................................................51! 4.10! 2011:(THE(OAKLAND(INSTITUTE(REPORT........................................................................................ 52! 4.11! 2012:(TODENYANG(IRRIGATION(PROJECT(&(KENYA’S(PLANS(FOR(IRRIGATION............................. 53! 4.12! OMO?GIBE(BASIN(MASTER(PLAN’S(TERMS(OF(REFERENCE(DATED(1992....................................... 54! 4.13! WATER(DEMAND(FROM(IRRIGATION(IN(THE(OMO?GIBE(BASIN(MASTER(PLAN...............................54! 4.14! SMALL?SCALE(IRRIGATION(IN(THE(OMO(BASIN.................................................................................. 56! 4.15! “MEDIUM?SCALE”(AND(“LARGE?SCALE”(IRRIGATION(AREAS(IN(THE(OMO(BASIN ............................57! 4.16! POTENTIAL(IRRIGATION(WATER(DEMAND(IN(THE(OMO(BASIN.........................................................61! 4.16.1! CROP!WATER!REQUIREMENTS!IN!THE!LOWER!OMO.....................................................................................61! 4.16.2! IRRIGATION!SYSTEM!EFFICIENCIES ..................................................................................................................62! 4.16.3! GROSS!IRRIGATION!WATER!ABSTRACTION!ESTIMATED!IN!THE!LOWER!OMO..........................................63! 4.16.4! PLANTATION!WATER!DEMANDS!IN!THE!LOWER!OMO!BASIN .....................................................................65! 4.16.5! CLIMATE!CHANGE!IMPACTS!ON!PLANTATION!WATER!DEMANDS................................................................66! 5! LAKE(TURKANA..................................................................................................................................... 67! 5.1! LAKE(TURKANA...................................................................................................................................... 67! 5.2! LAKE(TURKANA(OVER(MILLIONS(OF(YEARS(AND(THE(EMERGENCE(OF(PASTORALISM......................... 70! 5.3! THE(EMERGENCE(OF(PASTORALISM(IN(THE(LAST(6,000(YEARS .......................................................... 77! 5.4! LAKE(TURKANA’S(NATIONAL(PARKS(AND(PROTECTED(AREAS............................................................77! 6! DEMOGRAPHY(&(SOCIOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 79! 6.1! DEMOGRAPHY