InsrugencyCover 12/16/10 1:21 PM Page 1 COUNTERINSURGENCY: America’s Strategic Burden America’s COUNTERINSURGENCY: THE CENTER ON LAW AND SECURITY AT THE NYU SCHOOL OF LAW COUNTERINSURGENCY: America’s Strategic Burden CounterInsurgecy 12/16/10 1:12 PM Page 1 CounterInsurgecy 12/16/10 1:12 PM Page 2 The transcripts herein have been edited – the original audio from the conference is available for free download via the Center on Law and Security’s podcast series on iTunes. The speakers herein do not represent the Center on Law and Security. Cover image: Department of Defense, U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Lindsay L. Sayres Image accompanying Executive Director’s introduction by Guido Mannucci copyright © 2010 by the Center on Law and Security CounterInsurgecy 12/16/10 1:12 PM Page 3 THE CENTER ON LAW AND SECURITY AT THE NYU SCHOOL OF LAW COUNTERINSURGENCY: America’s Strategic Burden November 20, 2009 Editor in Chief: Karen J. Greenberg Editor: Jeff Grossman Design: Wendy Bedenbaugh Special thanks to Vincent Viola and Virtu Management for making this conference series possible CounterInsurgecy 12/16/10 1:12 PM Page 4 CounterInsurgecy 12/16/10 1:12 PM Page 5 America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan and in Iraq has been the topic of many Center on Law and Security conferences and meetings – micro- cosms of the larger debate that the nation at large has been having both inside Washington and in the public arena. At the core of these discussions have been several questions – not only military but also historical, philosophical, and political. And in each area, the topic of security and how to assess and define it going forward has been a centerpiece of discussion. Ambassador Richard Holbrooke summed it up well at a conference held here in the fall of 2008: If there is no security, or insufficient security, the insurgents can intimidate people by blowing up a school, blowing up a bridge, or beheading teachers . The rest of the people would say that they cannot build anything if we cannot protect them. This is the pattern in every insurgency that I have seen in the world. Security must come first. A year later, the Center convened a day-long conference to brief security experts, policy experts, and government officials on the history of counterinsurgency theory and practice and on the progress of the current U.S. and international counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan. Overall, the participants expressed a wide range of disagreement about both the definition of counterinsurgency and whether it is the appropriate means of accomplishing the nation’s goals in the region. One point of consensus, however, among those who spoke about counterinsurgency in Vietnam and among military and counterterrorism experts, was that the U.S. policy in Afghanistan had not yet achieved notable successes in more than a handful of disparate locations. There was also, however, one important takeaway from the conference. It was that the U.S. COIN policy still has much work to do in order to operate effectively within the context of the complex political realities, however anticipated, that are so often associated with governmental dealings in Afghanistan – whether involving the fight against drugs, or infrastructure projects, civic projects or police training. Future policy discussions, our panelists urged, will depend on ever more creative, ever more open-minded ideas about the potential mix of diplomatic, military, and devel- opment initiatives that collectively define the territory encompassed within COIN doctrine. Karen J. Greenberg, Executive Director CounterInsurgecy 12/16/10 1:12 PM Page 6 CounterInsurgecy 12/16/10 1:12 PM Page 7 Table of Contents COUNTERINSURGENCY: America’s Strategic Burden Participant Biographies 8 Counterinsurgency Today: Theory vs. Reality 18 Panelists: Conrad Crane, Janine Davidson, Montgomery McFate, John Nagl, Adam Silverman Moderator: Peter Bergen Lessons from the Past: Counterinsurgency throughout History 40 Panelists: Thomas Johnson, W. Patrick Lang, Michael Sheehan, Martin Stanton Moderator: Stephen Holmes Assessing Afghanistan 56 Panelists: Lt. Gen. David Barno, U.S. Army (ret.); C. Christine Fair; David Kilcullen; Joanna Nathan; Nir Rosen Moderator: Steven Simon What Lies Ahead 74 Panelists: Peter Bergen, Roger Cressey, Steve Fondacaro, Ken Silverstein, Steven Simon Moderator: Karen J. Greenberg About the Center on Law and Security 93 CounterInsurgecy 12/16/10 1:12 PM Page 8 Participant Biographies; November 20, 2009 Lt. Gen. David Barno, U.S. Army (ret.) is the Journal, The Atlantic, The Guardian, The director of the Near East South Asia Center Times, The Daily Telegraph, El Mundo, and for Strategic Studies at National Defense Die Welt. He has worked as a correspondent University. Lt. Gen. Barno has served in a for National Geographic Television, Discovery variety of command and staff positions in the Television, and CNN. From 2003-2007 he continental United States and around the taught at the School of Advanced International world. Subsequent to his selection to Major Studies at Johns Hopkins University and at the General in 2001, he served as Commanding Kennedy School of Government at Harvard General, United States Army Training Center University in 2008. His most recent book, The and Fort Jackson. During this assignment, he Osama bin Laden I Know: An Oral History of deployed to Hungary in 2003 as the al Qaeda’s Leader (Free Press, 2006), was Commanding General of Task Force Warrior named one of the best non-fiction books of with the mission to train the free Iraqi forces 2006 by The Washington Post. CNN produced in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. a two hour-documentary, In the Footsteps of General Barno deployed in October 2003 to bin Laden, based on it. Bergen was one of the Afghanistan, commanding over 20,000 U.S. producers of the documentary, which was and Coalition Forces in Combined Forces named the best documentary of 2006 by the Command-Afghanistan as part of Operation Society of Professional Journalists and nomi- Enduring Freedom. For 19 months in this nated for an Emmy. He is also the author of position, he was responsible to U.S. Central Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Bin Command for regional efforts in Afghanistan, Laden (Free Press, 2001), a New York Times most of Pakistan, and the southern parts of bestseller named one of the best non-fiction Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. His duties involved books of 2001 by The Washington Post. A doc- close coordination with the United States umentary based on it, which aired on National Department of State, the government of Geographic Television, was nominated for an Afghanistan, the United Nations, NATO Emmy in 2002. International Security Assistance Force, and the senior military leaders of many surround- Conrad Crane is the Director of the U. S. ing nations. Army Military History Institute at Carlisle Barracks, PA. He joined the Strategic Studies Peter Bergen is a print and television journal- Institute in September 2000 after 26 years of ist; a Schwartz senior fellow at the New military service that concluded with nine years America Foundation in Washington, D.C.; a as Professor of History at the U.S. Military research fellow at New York University’s Academy. He has written or edited books on Center on Law and Security; and CNN’s the Civil War, World War I, World War II, and national security analyst. He has written about Korea, and has published articles on military al Qaeda, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, and issues in such journals as The Journal of counterterrorism for newspapers and maga- Strategic Studies, The Journal of Military zines including The New York Times, the Los History, The Historian, and Aerospace Angeles Times, The New Republic, Foreign Historian, as well as in a number of collec- Affairs, The Washington Post, The Wall Street tions and reference books. Dr. Crane holds a 8 COUNTERINSURGENCY: America’s Strategic Burden CounterInsurgecy 12/16/10 1:12 PM Page 9 B.S. from the U.S. Military Academy and an Janine Davidson was appointed as the Deputy M.A. and Ph.D. from Stanford University. He Assistant Secretary of Defense for Plans in is also a graduate of the U.S. Army Command April 2009. Dr. Davidson joined the Defense and General Staff College and the U.S. Army Department from the faculty of George Mason War College. University, where she was an Assistant Professor in the School of Public Policy, and Roger W. Cressey served in senior cyber the Brookings Institution, where she was a security and counterterrorism positions in the non-resident fellow for the 21st Century Clinton and Bush administrations. He has Defense Initiative. As Director, in the Office been a crisis manager in Africa, the Middle of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense East, and the Balkans. He currently advises for Stability Operations, she oversaw the clients on homeland security, cyber security, implementation of DoD Directive 3000.05, and counterterrorism issues and is an on-air “Military Support to Stability, Security, counterterrorism analyst for NBC News. Transition, and Reconstruction.” She was the Previously, he served as Chief of Staff to the Department of Defense lead for the President’s Critical Infrastructure Protection Interagency Counterinsurgency Initiative and Board at the White House from November was the head of the Consortium for Complex 2001 to September 2002. From November Operations, an interagency project to enhance 1999 to November 2001, he served as Director education, training, and performance in com- for Transnational Threats on the National plex emergencies, including conflict preven- Security Council staff, where he was responsi- tion, peace operations, stabilization, recon- ble for coordination and implementation of struction, and counterinsurgency. Dr. Davidson U.S. counterterrorism policy. During this peri- previously served as Director, Counter- od, he managed the U.S.