ECONOMIC IMPACT OF MIGRATION Statistical Briefings Austria Call: H2020-SC6-MIGRATION-2019 Work Programmes: H2020-EU.3.6.1.1. The mechanisms to promote smart, sustainable and inclusive growth H2020-EU.3.6.1.2. Trusted organisations, practices, services and policies that are necessary to build resilient, inclusive, participatory, open and creative societies in Europe, in particular taking into account migration, integration and demographic change Deliverable 4.2 – Statistical briefing for Austria on economic impact of TCNs in MATILDE re- gions Authors: Birgit Aigner-Walder, Albert Luger, Rahel M. Schomaker with contributions from Ingrid Machold Approved by Work Package Manager of WP4: Simone Baglioni, UNIPR Approved by Scientific Head: Andrea Membretti, UEF Approved by Project Coordinator: Jussi Laine, UEF Version: 28.05.2021 DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4817376 This document was produced under the terms and conditions of Grant Agreement No. 870831 for the European Commission. It does not necessary reflect the view of the European Union and in no way anticipates the Commission’s future policy in this area. 2 Introduction This document presents the results of an assessment of the impact of migration and a measure- ment of the contribution provided by ‘third country nationals’ (TCNs) to the economic systems in the receiving contexts. In total, 10 statistical briefings for the MATILDE regions have been compiled, including the following countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Finland, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Each document focuses on the following dimen- sions of economic development: economic growth, labour markets, innovation, and entrepre- neurship. Moreover, a short introduction on the relevance of TCNs in the respective country as well as the population development and structure are considered. The results of a literature review and a comparative analysis of the 10 statistical briefings are published separately. Within the Matilde project there is a special focus on so-called ‘third country nationals’ (TCNs). MATILDE considers TCNs as Non EU citizens, who reside legally in the European Union (EU) and who are the target of EU integration policies. A TCN is “any person who is not a citizen of the European Union within the meaning of Art. 20(1) of TFEU and who is not a person enjoying the European Union right to free movement, as defined in Art. 2(5) of the Regulation (EU) 2016/399 (Schengen Borders Code).“ (European Commission 2020a). According to this definition, nationals of European Free Trade Association (EFTA) member countries Norway, Island, Liechtenstein and Switzerland are not considered to be TCNs. TCNs cover economic migrants, family migrants, stu- dents and researchers, highly skilled migrants, and forced migrants. 3 AUSTRIA Figure 1: Origin and Share of Total Population of Different Nationalities in Austria Source: Statistics Austria (2020a), own illustration Third Country Nationals (TCNs) in Austria On January 1, 2020, a total of 1,486,223 persons with non-Austrian citizenship were living in Aus- In 1961, the number of migrants, i.e. foreign na- tria. This corresponded to a share of around tionals living in Austria, slightly exceeded the num- 16.7 % vs. 83.3 % of Austria's total population. ber of 100,000. This corresponded to a share of Among non-Austrian nationals, slightly more than about 1.4 % of the total population. In the second half (778,443 persons) came from EU-28 (incl. UK) half of the 1960s and at the beginning of the and EFTA countries, including a total of 1970s, the number and share of the foreign popu- 199,993 Germans, who formed the largest group lation increased relatively strongly due to the tar- of foreigners in Austria with a share of 13.5 % (or geted recruitment of workers from the former Yu- 2.2 % of total population). A total of 707,780 indi- goslavia and Turkey. In 1974, a temporary peak viduals (or 8.0 % of total population) were third was reached with about 311,700 foreign nationals country nationals (TCN), having a nationality that (4.1 % of the total population at that time). It was is neither Austrians, EU citizen nor EFTA citizens. not until the strong wave of immigration in the By comparison, the share of TCN in EU- early 1990s that the proportion of foreigners 27 (excl. UK) and EU-28 (incl. UK) is 5.7 % and jumped to over 8 %. After a brief stagnation in the 3.8 %, Austria is therefore lying above the average. second half of the 1990s, the number of foreign nationals in Austria has increased again since the Considering the nationalities of TCN, Serbians turn of the millennium, with the 10 % threshold (122,115 persons; share of 1.4 %) are making up for the share of foreigners being exceeded for the the largest nationality group ahead of Turks first time at the beginning of 2008. (117,607 persons; share of 1.3 %) and Bosnians (96,583 persons; share of 1.1 %). Rank four to eleven follow considerably further behind: Syria 4 (0.6 %), Afghanistan (0.5 %), Russia (0.5 %), Ko- 20 years as their number increased by 235,374. sovo, Northern Macedonia (both 0.3 %), Iran, Like total population urbanization growth as a re- China, Iraq (each 0.2 %). In total almost 4 of 5 TCNs sult of TCN immigration only takes place in a few living in Austria belong to these nationalities. Fig- regions, i.e. cities and metropolitan areas (see Fig- ure 1 gives an overview of the origin and the share ure 2 (d)). of the different nationalities in Austria. Figure 2: Population Development (Δ 2002 to 2020) Population Development (a) The number of inhabitants in Austria has increased in the past and will continue to grow in the future. As of January 1, 2020, there were 8,901,064 per- sons registered in Austria. This corresponds to an increase of 837,424 citizens (+10.4 %) within about 20 years since 2002 (before eastward en- largement of EU in 2004). The main cause of pop- ulation growth is immigration to Austria (EU-28, (b) EFTA & TCN), as the birth rate is only slightly higher than the death rate of the domestic population (see Figure 2 (a)). Analyzing regional units (districts), the strong dis- persion is striking. The median Austrian popula- tion development is 0,0 %, i.e. half of the districts has grown, and the other half has shrunk. The Aus- trian population is relocating to the cities and met- (c) ropolitan areas of Vienna, Linz, Salzburg, Inns- bruck and Bregenz along the east-west axis, whereas in the south there is an internal migration from rural areas to cities. The cities and metropol- itan areas of Graz and Klagenfurt, where growth and stagnation have occurred, are notable excep- tions to this trend. The total number of Austrians living in Austria slightly increased by 81.462 inhab- (d) itants (+1.1 %; see Figure 2 (b)). EU (incl. UK) and EFTA citizens are the main factor behind population growth in Austria (+520,588 inh., +201,9 %). From a regional per- spective the range is +51,8 % (minimum) to +396,4 % (maximum). Similarly to the Austrians, this group of population lives in or close to cities. Germans (2.2 %), Romanians (1.4 %) and Hungari- Source: Statistics Austria (2020a), own illustration ans (1.0 % of total population) account for the largest share (see Figure 2 (c)). Summing up, both, domestic and foreign popula- tion groups tend to (re-)locate in cities and metro- TCN account for approx. 8 % at the beginning of politan regions. This is at the expense of rural ar- 2020. Immigrants from Serbia (1.4 %), Turkey eas which are experiencing an overall decline in (1.3 %) and Bosnia (1.1 %) are the largest national population. In particular, this is the case for the groups. TCNs became more relevant in the past southernmost province of Carinthia, which will 5 shrink in the future (up to current population fore- which spans to northern Burgenland, the popula- casts). tion will also increase in the regions of the provin- cial capitals of Graz, Salzburg, Innsbruck and Bre- From a regional perspective, the areas with the genz, as well as in the central Upper Austrian re- strongest decline in population are located in the gion of Linz-Wels and in the Carinthian cities of federal states of Lower Austria (Waldviertel), Klagenfurt and Villach. In these regions, the popu- Styria (Mur-Mürzfurche) and Carinthia (except lation will grow steadily until 2040. The main rea- metropolitan area of Klagenfurt-Villach). These re- son for this is the strong external immigration, as gions belong to the periphery and have a poor eco- well as mostly positive balances of internal migra- nomic structure. They suffer from higher depopu- tion and birth surpluses. Besides urbanization lation and birth rate deficits. In a total of four dis- tourist regions in the west, i.e. Tyrol and Vorarl- tricts, the population is projected to decline by berg, also tend to grow (see Figure 3 (a)). 10 % or more by 2040, namely in Wolfsberg (- 11.6 %), Spittal an der Drau (-11.4 %), Hermagor (- Vienna and its surrounding areas expect the high- 13.4 %) and Murau (-14.6 %; see Figure 3 (a)). est growth rate of domestic-born population whereas projected shrinking regions correspond Figure 3: Projections of population growth (Δ 2020 to 2040) (a) to those which experienced a decline in the past (see Figure 2 (b)). Again Murau has the greatest decline of 14.6 % until 2040, followed by the pe- ripheral regions of Carinthia, Salzburg and Styria (see Figure 3 (b)) Similar to the domestic-born population, the for- eign-born population will settle primarily in or near the cities of Vienna, Linz, Graz, Salzburg and Innsbruck, whereas it performs below-average but (b) positive in rural areas (except for Waidhofen an der Thaya; see Figure 3 (c)).