Phase 2 Preliminary Business Case July 2015 Document History MetroWest Phase 2 Preliminary (Strategic Outline) Business Case West of England Authorities This document has been issued and amended as follows: Version Date Description Created by Verified by Approved by 1.0 8 May 2015 Draft JE/GW HS AR 1.1 23 June 2015 Revised draft JE/GW HS AR 1.2 23 June 2015 Final draft JE/GW HS AR 1.3 8 July 2015 Final JE/GW HS AR METROWEST PHASE 2 Contents Section Page Acronyms and Abbreviations .............................................................................................................. vi Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1‐1 1.1 Project overview .............................................................................................................. 1‐1 1.2 Purpose of this report ...................................................................................................... 1‐3 1.3 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 1‐4 1.4 Structure of remainder of this document ........................................................................ 1‐4 Strategic Case ....................................................................................................................... 2‐1 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 2‐1 2.2 Business strategy ............................................................................................................. 2‐1 2.2.1 Business context ................................................................................................. 2‐1 2.2.2 West of England LEP Strategic Economic Plan .................................................... 2‐1 2.2.3 Network Rail Business Plan ................................................................................. 2‐2 2.2.4 Shared strategic aims .......................................................................................... 2‐3 2.3 Problems identified and objectives ................................................................................. 2‐3 2.3.1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 2‐3 2.3.2 Economic growth ................................................................................................ 2‐4 2.3.3 Tackling congestion and improving transport network resilience ..................... 2‐7 2.3.4 Accessibility ....................................................................................................... 2‐10 2.3.5 Environment and social well being ................................................................... 2‐11 2.4 Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 2‐12 2.4.1 Policy Context ................................................................................................... 2‐13 2.5 Drivers for change .......................................................................................................... 2‐13 2.6 Scope of the scheme ...................................................................................................... 2‐14 2.7 Constraints ..................................................................................................................... 2‐14 2.8 Stakeholders .................................................................................................................. 2‐15 2.9 Options ........................................................................................................................... 2‐15 2.9.1 Macro‐level optioneering ................................................................................. 2‐16 2.9.2 Mode and route specific optioneering ............................................................. 2‐17 2.9.3 Options considered in the Preliminary Business Case (PBC) ............................ 2‐19 2.10 Summary of strategic case ............................................................................................. 2‐19 Economic Case ...................................................................................................................... 3‐1 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3‐1 3.2 Options appraised ............................................................................................................ 3‐1 3.3 Transport modelling methodology overview .................................................................. 3‐4 3.4 Summary of modelled scheme impacts ........................................................................... 3‐6 3.5 Key economic assumptions............................................................................................ 3‐11 3.6 Economy impacts ........................................................................................................... 3‐12 3.6.1 Business users & transport providers (TEE Tables) .......................................... 3‐12 3.6.2 Reliability impacts on Business users ............................................................... 3‐17 3.6.3 Regeneration and Wider Impacts ..................................................................... 3‐17 3.7 Environment impacts ..................................................................................................... 3‐18 3.7.1 Noise ................................................................................................................. 3‐18 3.7.2 Air quality .......................................................................................................... 3‐18 3.7.3 Greenhouse gases ............................................................................................. 3‐22 3.7.4 Landscape ......................................................................................................... 3‐22 3.7.5 Townscape ........................................................................................................ 3‐22 3.7.6 Heritage and historic resources ........................................................................ 3‐23 METROWEST PHASE 2 CONTENTS, CONTINUED 3.7.7 Biodiversity ....................................................................................................... 3‐23 3.7.8 Water environment .......................................................................................... 3‐24 3.7.9 Summary of environmental impacts ................................................................ 3‐24 3.8 Social impacts ................................................................................................................ 3‐24 3.8.1 Commuting and Other users (TEE Tables) and Reliability impacts on Commuting and Other users ................................................................................................ 3‐24 3.8.2 Physical activity ................................................................................................ 3‐24 3.8.3 Journey quality ................................................................................................. 3‐25 3.8.4 Accidents .......................................................................................................... 3‐25 3.8.5 Affordability ...................................................................................................... 3‐25 3.8.6 Security ............................................................................................................. 3‐26 3.8.7 Access to services ............................................................................................. 3‐26 3.8.8 Severance ......................................................................................................... 3‐27 3.8.9 Option Values ................................................................................................... 3‐28 3.8.10 Distributional impacts ...................................................................................... 3‐28 3.9 Public Accounts impacts ................................................................................................ 3‐33 3.9.1 Broad Transport Budget ................................................................................... 3‐33 3.9.2 Indirect Tax Revenues ...................................................................................... 3‐33 3.10 Summary of impacts ...................................................................................................... 3‐36 3.10.1 Value for Money Statement ............................................................................. 3‐36 3.10.2 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) Tables ............................... 3‐37 3.10.3 Appraisal Summary Table (AST) ....................................................................... 3‐37 Commercial case ................................................................................................................... 4‐1 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 4‐1 4.2 GRIP2 Feasibility Study .................................................................................................... 4‐1 4.3 Output based specification ............................................................................................