TNA-Project-Jordan Report I Technology Needs Assessment Prepared by February 16th 2016 (Final Draft) (Modified for Transport Sector on March 27th 2016) List of Acronyms ASEZA Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority BUR Biennial update Report to UNFCCC CBOs Community-based Organizations CDM Clean Development Mechanism CEGCO Central Electricity Generating Company COPD Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases CORDEx Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment DEM Digital Elevation Models DNA Designated National Authority FDI Foreign Direct Investment GAM Greater Amman Municipality GCM Global Circulation Model GFJW General Federation of Jordanian Women HFDB Jordan Hashemite Fund for Development of Jordan Badia HFO Heavy Fuel Oil IMF International Monetary Fund INDCs Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JMD Jordan Meteorological Department JNFW Jordanian National Forum for Women JOHUD Jordanian Hashemite Fund for Human Development JVA Jordan Valley Authority LEDs Low Emission Development Plans LFA Logical Frame Analysis LULUCF Landuse, Landuse Change and Forestry MEMR Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources MIC Ministry of Industry and Commerce MoA Ministry of Agriculture MoEnv Ministry of Environment MOH Ministry of Health MoPIC Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation MoSD Ministry of Social of Development MoT Ministry of Transport MOTA Ministry of Tourism and Antiques MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification MWI Ministry of Water and Irrigation NAMAs Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NCARE National Center for Agricultural Research & Extension Center NCCC National Committee on Climate Change NCSA National Capacity Self-Assessment NEEDS National Environmental and Economic Development Study NEPCO National Electricity Power Company PAs Protected Areas (PAs), PMR Partnership for Market Readiness RCM Regional Climate Model RCP Representative Concentration Pathway RSS Royal Scientific Society SBA Stand-By Arrangement SCAs Special Conservation Areas SEPGCO Al-Samra Electric Power Generation Company SPI Standardized Precipitation Index STI Science, Technology and Innovation 2 TNC Third National Communication Report to UNFCCC UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 3 CONTENTS List of Acronyms --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 14 1.1 About the TNA Project ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 1.2 Existing National Policies related to Technological Innovation, Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases, Adaptation to Climate Change and Development Priorities ---------------------------------------------- 17 1.2.1 National sustainable development circumstances and challenges in Jordan ------------------- 17 1.2.2 General Technological Innovation Plans in Jordan -------------------------------------------------- 20 1.2.3 Climate change mitigation and adaptation-related policies in Jordan --------------------------- 21 1.3 Vulnerability assessments in the country and adaptation measures ------------------------------- 23 1.3.1 Water resources vulnerability assessment ----------------------------------------------------------- 23 1.3.2 Agriculture sector vulnerability assessment --------------------------------------------------------- 24 1.3.3 Biodiversity and ecosystems vulnerability assessment --------------------------------------------- 25 1.3.4 Coastal areas vulnerability assessment --------------------------------------------------------------- 25 1.3.5 Urban sector vulnerability assessment ---------------------------------------------------------------- 27 1.3.6 Health sector vulnerability assessment --------------------------------------------------------------- 27 1.3.7 Socio-economic vulnerability assessment ------------------------------------------------------------ 28 1.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Sector Selection ------------------------------------------------------------ 29 1.4.1 An overview of mitigation sectors, projected climate change, and GHG emissions status and trends of the sectors -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 1.4.1.1 Energy Sector ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 1.4.1.2 Transport subsector------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 29 1.4.1.3 Industrial Processes Sector --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 1.4.1.4 Agriculture Sector -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 1.4.1.5 Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Sector (LULUCF) -------------------------------------- 30 1.4.1.6 Waste Sector -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 1.4.2 An overview of expected climate change and its impacts in sectors vulnerable to climate change ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 30 4 1.4.2.1 General key messages from the TNC dynamic downscaling study as relevant to climate change vulnerability and impacts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 1.4.2.2 An overview of expected climate change and its impacts on the water sector: vulnerability, impact assessments and adaptation of the water sector ------------------------------------------------- 31 1.4.2.2.1 Assessment of water sector exposure and vulnerability to climate change ---------------- 32 1.4.2.2.2 Assessment of adaptive capacity of the water sector ------------------------------------------ 36 1.4.2.3 An overview of expected climate change and its impacts on agriculture sector ------------- 36 1.4.2.3.1 Assessment of agriculture sector exposure and vulnerability to climate change ---------- 37 1.4.2.3.2 Assessment of adaptive capacity of agriculture sector ---------------------------------------- 41 1.4.3 Process and results of sector selection for mitigation and adaptation sectors ----------------- 41 1.4.3.1 Launching/inception workshop of the TNA Project in Jordan and national exercise for priority sector selection ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 41 CHAPTER 2 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT FOR THE TNA AND THE STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 46 2.1. The Climate Change Stakeholders in Jordan ----------------------------------------------------------- 46 2.2. National TNA Team in Jordan ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 2.2.1. The TNA Steering Committee -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 2.2.2. The National TNA Coordinator------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 2.2.3. The National TNA Committee: Sectoral Technical Working Groups ----------------------------- 47 2.2.3.1. Mitigation Technical Working Group (MTWG) ---------------------------------------------------- 47 2.2.3.2. Adaptation Technical Working Group (ATWG) --------------------------------------------------- 48 2.2.4. The Consultants Team ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 48 2.3. Stakeholder engagement process followed in the TNA – overall assessment -------------------- 49 CHAPTER 3 TECHNOLOGY PRIORITIZATION FOR ENERGY SECTOR --------------------------------------- 51 3.1. GHG emissions and existing technologies of energy sector ----------------------------------------- 51 3.2. An overview of possible mitigation technology options in Energy Sector and their mitigation potential and other co-benefits ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 52 3.3. Criteria and process of technology prioritisation for energy sector -------------------------------- 52 3.4. Results of technology prioritization for energy sector ----------------------------------------------- 53 CHAPTER 4 Technology Prioritisation for Transport Sector ----------------------------------------------- 55 5 4.1. GHG emissions and existing technologies of the Transportation Sector -------------------------- 55 4.2. An overview of possible mitigation technology options in the transportation sector and their mitigation potential and other co-benefits ----------------------------------------------------------------- 55 4.3. Criteria and process of transport sector technology prioritisation --------------------------------- 59 4.4. Results of technology prioritisation for the Transportation Sector -------------------------------- 60 CHAPTER 5 TECHNOLOGY PRIORITISATION FOR WATER SECTOR ---------------------------------------- 62 5.1. Climate Change Vulnerability and Existing Technologies in the Water Sector-------------------- 62 5.1.1. Key climate change vulnerabilities in the water sector -------------------------------------------- 62 5.1.2. Overview of Existing Technologies in Water Sector ------------------------------------------------ 62 5.2. Adaptation Technology Options for the Water Sector and Their Main Adaptation