community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/ Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 7 Issue #9 OEWATCH October 2017 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT NORTH KOREA A VIEW FROM THE NEIGHBORHOOD MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA RUSSIA, UKRAINE 3 Egypt’s Rising Profile in Syria 21 Colombia: Land of Peace? 44 Russia’s ‘Tsirkon’ Hypersonic Cruise Missile 5 New Military Facilities in Syrian Regime Strongholds 22 ELN Peace Accord 46 The Naval Infantry’s New ‘Over-The-Horizon’ Bumerang BTR 7 Iran: Ex-IRGC Leader Targets UAE 22 Latin Americans and Catalonian Independence 48 Naval Infantry Increasing Amphibious Warfare Capabilities 8 Iran Claims to be Among World’s Top Radar Producers 23 FARC’s New Name 50 Russia’s Reconnaissance Strike and Fire Systems Integrated into 9 Iran: Comprehensive Legal System for Internet and 24 Authorities Seize First-Ever Electric Submarine in Colombia Airborne Forces Cyberspace 25 The Future of Venezuela’s Leadership 51 Aerospace Troops’ Warrant Officer Academy Now Awarding 10 Iran Reveals UAV Base with a Display of Drones and 26 Political Crisis in Venezuela: “Another Turn of the Screw” Bachelor Degrees Missiles 27 The Italian Mafia’s Operations in the Dominican Republic 52 Pipeline Troops 12 A Nuanced Look at Turkish-Iranian Relations 28 Honduran Government to Enhance Border Security 54 Cold Weather Cranking is so Last Century 13 Turkey Opens Military Training Base in Somalia 29 Brazil’s Controversial New Anti-Terrorism Law 55 BMPT “Terminator-3” Joining Russian Armed Forces 15 Yemeni-Manufactured Anti-Materiel Guns 30 Gangs and Social Media 57 Strengthening Russian-Serbian Military Relations 31 China Becomes New Leader in Cuban Trade 58 The Syrian Model for Libya? 60 New and Improved Red Star AFRICA 61 Joint Belarus-Russia Search for Unrecovered Defenders 16 Trends in African Conflict ASIA-PACIFIC 62 Russia’s International Military Relations 17 The Risk to Africa from Chinese Investment 32 The PLA at 90: On the Road to Becoming a World-Class 63 Russia’s Shoigu Impresses Niger with Syria Experience 18 Lesotho: Drought and Gender-Based Violence Military? 19 Lesotho: Standby Force Moves to Avert Further Instability 33 China and India Resolve Border Dispute 20 Zimbabwe: Immunity for Accused Killers 34 The BRICS Meeting and the Xiamen Declaration DPRK 35 China: Military Applications of Advances in Robotics 64 A Chinese Scholar’s Perspective on the North Korea Crisis 37 Hong Kong’s Counter-Terrorism Efforts 65 China: US Presence is a Bigger Threat than North Korea 38 Radicalization Trends in Indonesia 66 China Must Play Balancing Act on North Korea 39 The Kra Canal: A Global Megaproject? 67 How Would Russia Respond to War on the Korean Peninsula? 68 Russia and North Korea: The Enemy of My Enemy 69 The North Korea-Russia Joint Declaration of Friendship CAUCASUS, CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA 70 Nuclear Dagger: Japanese Views on North Korea 40 Are Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan Resolving their Border 72 North Korea: The View from Egypt Issues? 41 Chinese Intentions for Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port 43 Israel’s Investigation Into a UAV Strike on the Armenian Army approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission is to Understand, Describe, Deliver, and OEWATCH Assess the conditions of the Operational Foreign News & Perspectives Environment. For over 30 years, FMSO of the Operational Environment has conducted open source research Volume 7 | Issue 9 October | 2017 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered. Regional Analysts and Operational Environment Watch Expert Contributors provides translated selections and commentary from a diverse range Middle East, North Africa Robert Bunker Karen Kaya of foreign media that our analysts Alma Keshavarz and expert contributors believe will Michael Rubin give security professionals an added Lucas Winter dimension to their critical thinking Africa Robert Feldman about the Operational Environment. Latin America Geoff Demarest Brenda Fiegel The views expressed in each article are those of Zach Kelsay the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department Asia-Pacific Stephen Armitage of Defense, or the US Government. Release of this Dennis J. Blasko information does not imply any commitment or intent Fen Chen on the part of the US Government to provide any Kaitlyn Johnson additional information on any topic presented herein. David Hunter-Chester Cindy Hurst The appearance of hyperlinks does not constitute Elsa Kania endorsement by the US Army of the referenced site Spenser Shanks or the information, products, or services contained Jacob Zenn therein. Users should exercise caution in accessing hyperlinks. Central Asia, Caucasus Matthew Stein The Operational Environment Watch is archived and available at: https://community.apan.org/wg/ Russia, Ukraine Chuck Bartles tradoc-g2/fmso/. Ray Finch Les Grau Jacob Zenn Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editor Karen Kaya Design Editor Lucas Winter ON THE COVER: Rendition of undated photo of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un witnessing a missile launch. Source: Own Work based on image released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). kcna.kp, Public Domain. MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Rising Profile in Syria OE Watch Commentary: Until recently, Egypt Source: Zvi Bar’el, “In Blow to Iran, Egypt Becomes Surprise New Player in Syria,” was not an active player in the Syrian crisis. This Haaretz.com, 21 August 2017. http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/ appears to be changing, with Egypt’s successful syria/1.808039 brokering of a de-escalation deal and cease-fire agreement between rebel militias and the regime A new and surprising player has recently entered the Syrian arena and has already in July and August, with the support of Russia. contributed to establishing local cease-fires: Egypt received Saudi and Russian The accompanying passages from various Middle “permission” to conduct negotiations between the rebel militias and the regime, both in Eastern sources discuss Egypt’s rising profile in Ghouta al-Sharqiya (east of Damascus) and the northern neighborhoods in the city of Syria from different regional perspectives. While Homs. In both cases, it managed to get a cease-fire deal signed – in the former on July Israel and many of the Gulf countries are happy 22, in the latter in early August. to see a more active Egypt in Syria, Turkey is not Both areas are part of the de-escalation zones on which Russia, Turkey and Iran so keen on a new player in an area where it had agreed in May, in consultation with the United States. But this is the first time Egypt hoped to be one of the main peace brokers. Russia has played an active role in diplomatic negotiations between the warring parties that appears to be the main driving force behind this produced positive results... development. From Israel’s standpoint, Egypt’s involvement is important. Any country engaged in The first passage from Israeli daily Haaretz blocking Iran’s influence in Syria serves Israel’s interests. But that’s especially true discusses Egypt’s success in the two recent cease- when said country is Egypt, which is Israel’s partner in the war on terror in Sinai and fire deals, and claims that Egypt’s presence in an ally (together with Saudi Arabia and Jordan) with whom it sees eye to eye about Syria is a positive development for Israel. The both the Iranian threat and the danger of Syria disintegrating into cantons... author notes that “any country engaged in blocking But it would be going too far, at least at this stage, to predict that Iran’s role in Syria Iran’s influence in Syria serves Israel’s interests.” will wane due to Egypt’s involvement. The Syrian regime owes its very survival to Iran This is especially true when that country is Egypt, and Russia. Even under a diplomatic agreement, these countries will continue to serve which he points out is “Israel’s partner in the war as Syria’s strategic depth. on terror in Sinai and an ally (together with Saudi Arabia and Jordan) with whom it sees eye to eye Source: Mete Yarar, “Suriye’de bir Mısır askeri eksikti (Egyptian soldiers were the only about both the Iranian threat and the danger of ones missing in Syria),” Karar.com, 31 August 2017. http://www.karar.com/yazarlar/ Syria disintegrating into cantons.” mete-yarar/suriyede-bir-misir-askeri-eksikti-4823 A Russian military diplomatic source who spoke to Izvestiya said the following in The second passage from an article by a well- response to a question about Egyptian soldiers in Syria: “Of course this is true. known Turkish security analyst, references Everyone understands that being included in the Syria crisis will allow influence on Russian Izvestiya and claims that Egyptian how things in this country [Syria] and in the region will evolve. There is nothing to be soldiers are now in Syria. He argues that surprised about.”... Egypt’s arrival in Syria has to do with the Qatar crisis along with “a project to end the Muslim I think Egypt’s arrival onto the Syrian [scene] has to do with the tension that the Gulf Brotherhood everywhere and to encircle Turkey.” countries, including Egypt, have [with Qatar]. It is part of a project to end the Muslim Brotherhood everywhere and to encircle Turkey. The strongest evidence of this is the The third passage, written by an Egyptian fact that they just entered the Syrian civil war after staying away for five years. journalist for Al Monitor, discusses Russia’s interest in “pushing” Egypt into this role.