ELECTRONIC VERSION QUEENSLAND ELECTIONS 1986 TO 1995: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS RESEARCH BULLETIN NO 5/96 ANTONY GREEN QUEENSLAND PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY Publications and Resources Section BRISBANE May 1996 ISSN 1324-860X ISBN 0 7242 7109 0 © Queensland Parliamentary Library, 1996 Copyright protects this publication. Except for purposes permitted by the Copyright Act 1968, reproduction by whatever means is prohibited, other than by Members of the Queensland Parliament in the course of their official duties, without the prior written permission of the Parliamentary Librarian, Queensland Parliamentary Library. Inquiries should be addressed to: Director, Publications & Resources, Queensland Parliamentary Library, Parliament House, George Street, Brisbane. Director: Ms Mary Seefried. CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 CALCULATING REDISTRIBUTIONS .......................................................................................... 3 1.2 CLASSIFICATION OF REGIONS ................................................................................................ 4 1.3 DEFINITION OF SWING........................................................................................................... 4 1.4 REGISTERED PARTIES............................................................................................................ 5 2. ELECTION RESULTS 1986 TO 1995 ................................................................................... 7 2.1 1986 ELECTION RESULTS...................................................................................................... 7 2.2 1989 ELECTION RESULTS.................................................................................................... 10 2.3 1992 ELECTION RESULTS.................................................................................................... 12 2.4 1995 ELECTION RESULTS.................................................................................................... 14 3. REGIONAL SUMMARIES ................................................................................................. 19 3.1 NORTHERN BRISBANE ......................................................................................................... 20 3.2 SOUTHERN BRISBANE.......................................................................................................... 22 3.3 IPSWICH ............................................................................................................................. 23 3.4 LOGAN-REDLANDS ............................................................................................................. 24 3.5 STRATHPINE-CABOOLTURE ................................................................................................. 25 3.6 GOLD COAST...................................................................................................................... 26 3.7 SUNSHINE COAST................................................................................................................ 28 3.8 RURAL SOUTH QUEENSLAND ............................................................................................... 29 3.9 WIDE BAY-BURNETT .......................................................................................................... 30 3.10 CENTRAL QUEENSLAND .................................................................................................... 31 3.11 NORTH QUEENSLAND........................................................................................................ 33 3.12 REMOTE AREAS ................................................................................................................ 35 4. COMPARATIVE RESULTS BY ELECTORATE .............................................................. 37 5. TWO-PARTY PREFERRED RESULTS BASED ON NEW BOUNDARIES.................. 128 6. DETAILS OF DISTRIBUTION OF PREFERENCES...................................................... 141 7. ACTUAL RESULTS OF 1986 AND 1989 ELECTIONS ................................................... 153 7.1 RESULTS OF 1986 ELECTION ON OLD BOUNDARIES ............................................................ 153 BIBLIOGRAPHY....................................................................................................................165 The Author Antony Green is Election Analyst with ABC-TV, and has worked for the ABC on every state and Federal election coverage since 1989, including the last three Queensland elections. He also writes regularly on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald. Antony studied at Sydney University, and holds a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. He has produced a number of publications for the NSW Parliamentary Library, and is the author of the Federal Election 1996 Guide for ABC books. Acknowledgments I would like to express my gratitude to staff of the Queensland Parliamentary Library for comments and advice on improvements to the text of this publication. I would like to thank Dr Glenn Rhodes, Manager Research and Education with the Electoral Commission Queensland, and David Fraser, for assistance with providing election results. While all figures are derived from the published results provided by the Electoral Commission, all calculations of percentages and swings, totalling of votes and analysis of regional votes and trends are the responsibility of the author. Queensland Elections 1986-1995 Page 1 1. INTRODUCTION The four Queensland elections between 1986 and 1995 produced dramatic shifts in the relative level of electoral support for Queensland's three major political parties. After the National Party's electoral success at the 1986 election, the 1989 and 1992 elections produced substantial majorities for the Labor Party, while at the 1995 election, the Labor Party was re-elected, but with a percentage vote only marginally higher than in 1986. The subsequent Liberal Party victory in the February 1996 Mundingburra by-election produced the first Coalition government in Queensland since 1983. Examining the electoral base for these shifts has been difficult because of the major changes to electorates produced by the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries at the 1991 redistribution. The aim of this publication is to make available for the first time, estimated results of the 1986 and 1989 elections based on the boundaries in place for the 1992 and 1995 elections, so that meaningful comparisons across the four elections can be made. While some commentary is provided on the results, it is not the aim of this publication to explain all the trends evident across the four elections. Rather, by making the comparative results available, the aim is to assist in public understanding of the shift in relative support for the three major political parties. The publication is broken into several sections as outlined below. Section 1: Introduction Section 2: Election Summaries 1986 to 1995 Contains details of the aggregate results of each election, and also assesses the impact of the redistribution using the 1986 and 1989 results. Section 3: Regional Summaries Examines the regional trends evident across the four elections. In line with the rise and decline of Labor Party support, comment is made on Labor's improved vote in the South-East of the state since 1986, its improved vote in the high growth areas north and south of Brisbane, and the key importance of sitting Labor members in many Brisbane seats since 1989. The relative level of support for the Liberal and National Parties on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts is also discussed. Page 2 Queensland Elections 1986-1995 Section 4: Detailed Results by Electorate This is the longest section of this bulletin, and contains detailed results for each electorate. Details of primary and two-candidate preferred results are provided for each electorate, as well as growth in votes cast and the old electorates from which votes were drawn. Each electorate includes commentary on the relative performance of the parties, as well as flows of preferences. Section 5: Two-Party Preferred Tables An adjunct to Sections 3 and 4, providing tables of two party preferred swings across the four elections. Section 6: Distribution of Preferences Provides summary details of the distribution of party preferences at each of the elections. For the 1986, 1989 and 1992 elections, the analysis concentrates on flows of preferences between the Liberal and National Parties. The conclusion is that while the leakage of Liberal preferences to the Labor Party declined in 1992, the introduction of optional preferential voting saw many Liberal preferences exhaust instead of flowing to the National Party. Analysis of preferences in 1995 concentrates on the preference tactics of the Australian Democrats and The Greens. While both parties had success with directing preferences in several seats, especially those affected by the tollway issue, in general the results of their strategies were inconclusive. Section 7: Details of 1986 and 1989 Elections Provided for completeness, this section provides summary results for the 1986 and 1989 elections on the boundaries in place at the time. Also included are details of transfers of enrolments from old to new electorates in 1991. This information is included to provide understanding of how the Tables in Section 4 were derived. Queensland Elections 1986-1995 Page 3 1.1 CALCULATING