Transnational Institute Authors: Hamza Hamouchene Niels Jongerius Inés McKechnie Charle Shaun Matsheza Katie Sandwell Lavinia Steinfort Josephine Valeske March 2021 COLOPHON The future we want Coordinating author Katie Sandwell Authors Hamza Hamouchene De Wittenstraat 25 1052 AK Amsterdam Niels Jongerius The Netherlands Inés McKechnie Charle tel: + 31 20 662 66 08 [email protected] Shaun Matsheza www.tni.org Lavinia Steinfort The Transnational Institute (TNI) is an international research and advo- Josephine Valeske cacy institute committed to building a just, democratic and sustainable planet. For more than 40 years, Illustrations TNI has served as a unique nexus between social movements, engaged Gus Moystad scholars and policy makers. This document represents a collec- Design tive work by the authors, drawing on other work published by TNI and Kees de Klein co-published with allies. Different sections reflected the diverse viewpoints and perspectives of the authors involved. CONTENTS The future we want Introduction 5 Why Shell must fall 7 What is Shell? 8 Why do we need a future beyond Shell? 8 Why now? 9 A future beyond Shell 11 A future rooted in justice: 6 principles of just transition 12 History of just transition 13 Just transition depends on context 13 From headquarters in The Hague to gas extraction in Groningen 14 Energy poverty 14 Just transition is an anti-racist framework 14 Just transition is a class issue 16 Trade unions for energy democracy 17 Just transition is a gender justice issue: the future is feminist 17 Just transition is about more than just the climate 18 Sacrifice zones 19 Just transition is about democracy 19 From protecting investment to protecting resistance 20 Energy Democracy 20 The false promises of "green" energy 21 Universal access and social justice 21 Renewable, sustainable and local energy 21 Public and social ownership 21 Solutions at the scale of the problem 22 Fair pay and creation of green jobs 22 Democratic control and participation 22 The inspiring present 23 Production 24 Distribution 24 Integrated companies 24 Conclusion 26 Epilogue: A requiem for the future 28 INTRO The future we want DUCTION 5 INTRODUCTION The future we want From grassroots environmental movements to climate scientists, there is a growing consensus 1 Limits to Growth: Club of Rome that the time has come for an urgent transformation in how we relate to natural systems and Brundtland Commission: https:// 1 www.britannica.com/topic/ territories. The planet is at a tipping point and dramatic changes at many levels of society Brundtland-Report are needed to avoid catastrophic global heating. In 2019, a youth uprising led the fight for 2 our common future. In the Netherlands, activists from Code-Rood, Gastivists and CLuB The Shell Must Fall! campaign was launched at the Annual General launched their Shell Must Fall! Campaign, aiming to take down Shell, challenging the mul- Assembly of the company. In an 2 address to its shareholders and tinational at its ‘homeland’ headquarters. Momentum is building to re-think our societies, board, they stated: “we are here our economies, and our energy systems – making the future of fossil-fuel mega-companies a to announce that our coalition is determined to make you, Royal Dutch key battleground. Shell, fall, by any legal, political or economic means necessary." The Covid-19 pandemic which swept around the world in 2020 – and is far from https://youtu.be/T2S7F6Ln0vg being under control – has revealed in stark terms the crisis in our social systems and our 3 relation to the planet, from the habitat damage and agro-industrial food systems that have https://thenewpress.com/books/ monster-our-door; https://nyupress. 3 4 driven pandemics, to the deep inequalities that left millions of people acutely vulnerable, org/9781583675892/big-farms- 5 make-big-flu/; https://mronline. to the ‘crisis of care’ and the vast ‘unpaid debt’ of neoliberalism revealed in many countries org/2020/04/20/114206/; https:// www.tni.org/en/article/video- and communities. The pandemic has placed massive new burdens on people already strug- recording-recipe-for-disaster- gling with climate change, poverty, and exploitation. Death and long-term impairment from webinar-on-food-systems-inequality- and-covid-19; Covid-19 has been starkly disproportionate, with poor and racialised people and communi- 6 4 ties heavily affected. https://longreads.tni.org/covid- Many governments around the world have responded in authoritarian ways, seiz- capitalism-report; ing the opportunity to push through unpopular laws while resistance was criminalised in 5 https://www.transform-network. 7 the name of public health, and implementing intrusive measures that have stripped civil net/cs/webinars/detail/?tx_news_ pi1%5Bnews%5D=9071 ; https:// liberties, often without clear public health benefits. At the same time, suspicion of scientific focusweb.org/covid-19-exposes- twin-crises-of-neoliberalism-and- experts and public health bodies, and chronic underfunding of public health services, has authoritarianism-in-philippines/ resulted in delayed responses and endangered peoples’ lives. Finally, social support mecha- 6 nisms, if they exist at all, have often been weak, faltering, privatised, corrupt, or inaccessible https://www.thejakartapost.com/ news/2020/08/03/covid-19- to those who need them most. As a model for planetary change, the response to the pandem- crisis-erodes-womens-rights-in- indonesia-activists.html ; https:// ic has not been inspiring. www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/ At the same time, Covid-19 and the global response to it has unquestionably systemic-racism-black-health- disparities/ demonstrated the ability to make deep changes to economies, laws, public infrastructure, 7 and our private lives that would have seemed impossible in 2019. Grassroots and local re- e.g. https://mronline. org/2020/10/22/indonesias-return- sponses have revealed the strength, vision, and resilience of ordinary people even in times of to-an-authoritarian-developmental- great hardship. These responses highlight people’s creativity, passion and commitment in state/ ; https://focusweb.org/ covid-19-exposes-twin-crises-of- communities around the world, which can help us to envisage – and build – better futures. neoliberalism-and-authoritarianism- Realising this vision means confronting and radically transforming the profit-driven in-philippines/ fossil-fuel-dependent economies that shape contemporary society. To do this we must take on the mega-corporations that defend – and profit from – the extractivist, imperialist, capi- talist model. The Future Beyond Shell project is exploring some of the core ways and reasons to do this. The Future We Want puts forward alternatives, laying out a practical vision of systems that could meet everyone’s needs without trashing the planet. Other sections will ex- amine the obstacles in the path of achieving these alternatives, and the strategies activists are using to overcome them. 6 WHY SHELL The future we want MUST FALL WHY SHELL MUST FALL The future we want What is Shell? 8 The British–Dutch company Royal Dutch Shell is ‘a global group of energy and petro- https://www.shell.com/about-us.html 8 9 chemical companies’ with more than 80,000 employees in over 70 countries, headquar- https://fortune.com/global500/ tered in The Hague. It is one of the illustrious ‘Seven Sisters’ and in 2020 was the world’s 10 9 fifth largest company, and the largest based in Europe. It was formed in 1907 through the https://milieudefensie.nl/ klimaatzaakshell/veelgestelde- amalgamation of the Royal Dutch Petroleum Company and the Shell Transport and Trad- vragen#12--draagt-shell-echt- zoveel-bij-aan-klimaatverandering- ; ing Company Ltd. https://www.theguardian.com/ Shell has contributed massively to the current environmental crisis: it is respon- environment/2019/oct/09/revealed- 20-firms-third-carbon-emissions sible for 2% of the total global CO2 and methane emissions for the entire period between 10 11 1854 and 2018. It remains solidly in today’s top ten polluters from the fossil-fuel indus- https://www.theguardian.com/ 11 environment/2019/oct/09/revealed- try, spending millions on lobbying to block climate policies that might affect its profits 20-firms-third-carbon-emissions (see below).12 12 Shell is a major producer of oil and gas, producing more 1,001 million ‘barrels of https://www.theguardian.com/ 13 business/2019/mar/22/top-oil-firms- oil equivalent’ in 2019. But, as a ‘modern, diversified company’ it is also active in multi- spending-millions-lobbying-to-block-climate- change-policies-says-report ; https:// ple related industries. It seeks to integrate its supply chains both ‘vertically’ and ‘horizon- corporateeurope.org/en/future-according- tally’ in order to better control prices and extract profits. For instance, Shell Chemicals shell ; https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ entry/bp-shell-climate_n_5f6e3120c5b64 owns dozens of factories around the world, including Europe, that refine petroleum prod- deddeed6762 ; https://www.tni.org/files/ 14 publication-downloads/one_treaty_to_ ucts and by-products into motor oils, industrial lubricants and plastics. Chemical refin- ruled_them_all.pdf eries boost oil companies’ profitability, even if oil prices are low or falling, or as consumers 13 shift to less polluting forms of transport or consumption. https://reports.shell.com/annual- report/2019/strategic-report/ For decades, fossil-fuel companies publicly denied or downplayed climate and segments/upstream.php environmental risks linked to their products, while internally they planned to protect their 14 15 https://www.shell.com/business- profits in the face of climate change. Today, as the realities of the climate catastrophe are customers/chemicals/manufacturing- undeniable, Shell now paints itself as a key actor in a sustainable future. In its ‘powering locations.html progress’ strategy, announced in 2021, it declares its intention to reach net-zero emissions 15 16 https://www.theguardian.com/ by 2050, while remaining a major player in global energy.