CHINA- RUSSIA RELATIONS AGE OF TRIANGULAR POLITICKING YU BIN, WITTENBURG UNIVERSITY China and Russia found themselves entangled in two separate triangular dynamics with the US and India. Russia, however, found itself in a curiously pivotal position within the two geopolitical triangles: an “innocent” bystander in the Beijing-New Delhi-Moscow trio and a useful, delicate balancer in the Washington-Beijing duel. Between its strategic partner (China) and persistent yet unrequited courter (the Trump administration), Russia carefully played its cards from a position of strategic weakness. By end of summer, the US-China-Russia triangle made its way into the US 2020 presidential elections as presidential candidates played the “Russia” and “China” cards. No matter who wins the 2020 US election, the stakes are high for China and Russia. This article is extracted from Comparative Connections: A Triannual E-Journal of Bilateral Relations in the Indo-Pacific, Vol. 22, No. 2, September 2020. Preferred citation: Yu Bin, “China-Russia Relations: Age of Triangular Politicking” Comparative Connections, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp 129-140. CHINA- RUSSIA RELATIONS | SEPTEMBER 2020 129 While the coronavirus raged throughout international justice, multilateralism, peace, summer 2020, China and Russia found and development. themselves entangled in two separate triangular dynamics with the US and India. China faced off Putin thanked Xi for preserving the memory of with India along the long mountainous border, thousands of Soviet soldiers and volunteers that culminating in the June 15 deadly brawls. perished in China. According to Chinese Meanwhile, the “whole-of-government Ambassador Zhang Hanhui, the Soviet Union approach” of the Trump administration against was the only country to provide direct military China led to a near-freefall in bilateral relations, assistance to China in the early phase of China’s featuring the highly ideologized, militarized war with Japan. This included $170 million in connotations of the Cold War (1947-1991). In funding, 1,200 airplanes, 1,317 artillery pieces, both cases, China’s strategic space was large amounts of munitions, and petroleum. increasingly constrained. While history embodies powerful symbolism for Russia and China, the two also discussed current Russia, however, found itself in a curiously challenges, particularly the pandemic. They pivotal position within the two geopolitical reaffirmed cooperation for vaccine triangles: an “innocent” bystander in the development, joint efforts to control the Beijing-New Delhi-Moscow trio and a useful, pandemic at the global level, and avoiding delicate balancer in the Washington-Beijing politicization of the issue. They also agreed to duel. Between its strategic partner (China) and enhance communication and coordination persistent yet unrequited courter (the Trump within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization administration), Russia carefully played its (SCO) and BRICS frameworks, and that the two cards from a position of strategic weakness. By countries would resume high-level visits after end of summer, the US-China-Russia triangle the pandemic. made its way into the US 2020 presidential elections as presidential candidates played the On July 8, Putin and Xi talked again by phone. Xi “Russia” and “China” cards. No matter who congratulated Putin on the success of the wins the 2020 US election, the stakes are high national vote on the constitution, which allows for China and Russia. the 67-year Putin to potentially stay in power up to 2036. Xi pledged China’s support for Russia’s Virtual Diplomacy, Real-world Issues choice to follow its own path of development and its effort to reach its goals. The Russian Summer is peak season for diplomatic activities president expressed thanks for the People’s and Moscow and Beijing planned a series of Liberation Army’s participation in Russia’s high-level exchanges for the 75th anniversary of Victory Day parade and said Russia’s Russia’s Great Patriotic War (World War II) constitutional amendments helped maintain victory. The pandemic, however, forced the two Russia's long-term political stability, better sides to suspend all planned activities, replacing safeguarding national sovereignty and opposing a few of them with phone calls and external interference. Regarding a national videoconferencing. security law for Hong Kong, Putin told Xi that Russia firmly supports China's efforts to On May 8, Xi initiated a call to Putin, safeguard national security in the Hong Kong congratulating the Russian president on the Special Administrative Region. Great Patriotic War anniversary. Several leaders—including Boris Johnson, Angela The two calls were perhaps the most they could Merkel, Emmanuel Macron, Benjamin do in the pandemic, which posed “a serious Netanyahu, Abe Shinzo, and Donald Trump— challenge” to bilateral relations, according to a also called Putin prior to the commemoration. joint group of scholars in late Aug.. In his phone The Chinese president, however, sought to call with Putin on July 8, Xi went as far as to connect China and the Soviet Union by saying anticipate a “prolonged pandemic.” For this, the the two countries were the main WWII theaters Chinese leader suggested that the two sides for, respectively, Asia and Europe. He noted adopt more flexible and diverse ways for the special importance of this date cooperation, including the reopening of the for the peoples of their countries, who sustained economy. the heaviest losses in the war. And China was willing, together with Russia, to safeguard the Senior diplomats managed to engage on many victory of WWII and the international order for occasions. Chinese officials and diplomats 130 SEPTEMBER 2020 | CHINA- RUSSIA RELATIONS publicly supported the Russian constitutional this region is safe for the peoples of China and amendment, while, Russian officials endorsed India." China’s position on the Hong Kong issue. Regional issues and hot spots also attracted Despite the clash and growing pressure in India their attention. Foreign ministers of SCO and to “punish China,” the scheduled Russian- BRICS met via videoconferencing on May 13 and Indian-China dialogue (RIC) went ahead on June Aug. 26, respectively. On May 14, Russian 23 with Russia chairing the annual tri-party Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Chinese talks via videoconference. In their televised counterpart joined a four-party videoconference opening speeches, none of the three foreign with Iran and Pakistan on Afghanistan. This was ministers directly addressed the border clash. followed by a trilateral teleconsultation on June 4 between the Russian, US, and Chinese special While Lavrov and Wang covered the pre-set representatives on Afghan affairs. agenda of global/regional issues, COVID crises, etc., Jaishankar went out of his way to remind Russia between Two Partners: Diplomacy of his Russian and Chinese counterparts of India’s Doing Nothing? contribution to the victory of WWII, in which 2.3 million Indian troops helped the Allies win The India-China border disputes injected new World War II. The history-minded Indian chemistry into Eurasian politicking, as both secretary of external affairs, however, also sides are Russia’s strategic partners. Starting aimed at China’s unwillingness to support from early May, a series of standoffs and India’s ascendance to permanent membership physical clashes occurred along the Line of of the UN Security Council (UNSC).Russia Actual Control (LAC) in the Pangong Lake area already publicly supports India as a permanent and then Sikkim. On June 15, an hours-long member of a reformed and expanded UNSC, brawl occurred in the remote Galwan Valley. which Lavrov reiterated at his post-conference Twenty Indian soldiers reportedly died, dozens news briefing. were wounded, and several captured (before being released later). Chinese casualties were The circumvention of the clash was expected unknown. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi given the RIC rule of not addressing bilateral and his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam issues. After the RIC session, Lavrov ruled out Jaishankar talked over the phone on June 17 and the possibility of Moscow acting as a mediator agreed to de-escalate. between India and China. “I see no reason that Russia or anyone else would be imposing their This border clash, the worst in 40 years between services on India and China in order to solve the two Asian giants, alarmed Russia. For more their own problems,” he remarked, adding that than three decades Russia has promoted and “I don’t think that India and China need help steered the Russian-Indian-China trilateral and assistance aiming to somehow resolve their mechanism (RIC) for multiple purposes. This disputes or situations … Military commanders included projecting Russian influence across met on the ground immediately after the border Eurasia and countering perceived Western incidents, and foreign ministers contacted each influence, but also balancing steadily growing other, too. As far as I understand, these contacts Chinese clout. Russia’s effort to bring India into also continue today. Neither party has made any the SCO, which occurred in 2017, was seen as statements about a reluctance to reach an part of Russia’s grand strategy for the volatile agreement under mutually acceptable Eurasian landscape. The June 15 clash was an approaches.” immediate, serious challenge to Russia’s special role in the trio as well as Eurasian stability. Russia’s reluctance to mediate, at least publicly, does not necessarily mean nothing happened Lavrov and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov between the three top diplomats. During their expressed concerns on June 17. “Both China and videoconference, Lavrov proposed a RIC defense India are very close partners for us, allies,” said ministerial meeting later this year. Wang Peskov. “We are paying close attention to what supported the idea and suggested a series of RIC is happening on the China-India border.” He ministerial dialogues for cooperation in trade, also believed that China and India "are capable energy, transportation, education, cultural by themselves of taking steps so that such exchanges, health, and forums of experts and situations do not happen again ..