COLLIERS QUARTERLY INVESTMENT | SINGAPORE | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 26 JANUARY 2021 A STRONG RECOVERY EXPECTED IN 2021 Tricia Song Director and Head | Research | Singapore +65 6531 8536 [email protected] QOQ / YOY / Average Annual Growth / Insights & Q4 2020 2021F 2020–2025F Average Recommendations > FY 2020 investment sales fell 16.7% YOY as investors delay investments amid heightened Singapore investment sales in Q4 uncertainties in H1. Q4 2020 has seen a 243 % 20 % 10 % trebled QOQ and doubled YOY to strong rebound and we expect 2021 volumes Total SGD14.4bn (USD10.9bn) mainly Investment to recover to pre-pandemic levels, supported SGD14.4bn SGD29.7bn SGD33.2bn on a REIT merger. The strong Sales by Singapore’s safe haven status, pro- momentum in H2 2020 buoyed business environment and economic growth. the full year 2020 to SGD24.7bn > FY 2020 commercial volumes grew 8.8% YOY (USD18.7 bn), falling 16.7% YOY. on the CMT-CCT merger2. Excluding the 228 % 10 % 10 % > Investors continued to focus merger, we have seen increased institutional on commercial assets as acquisition of prime office buildings, Commercial leveraging on more tech giants setting up SGD8.69bn SGD14.1bn SGD17.2bn FY2020 volumes grew 8.8% bases in Singapore and the URA Incentive YOY, making up 52% of 2020 Scheme1 rejuvenation of older precincts. transactions. > Residential volumes jumped mainly on the > Shophouses are the only other revival of public and private land sales, sector to grow in COVID-struck including two collective sales. FY 2020 still fell 92.6% 50 % 20 % 2020. Industrial volumes fell 23.6% to SGD5.2bn on a weak H1 2020. With from a high base in 2019. Residential strong developer sales and a depleting SGD1.97bn SGD7.9bn SGD9.4n > We expect investment sales to pipeline, we expect private land sales via en bloc and collective sales to recover in 2021. grow 20% in 2021 to SGD29.7 billion. We recommend > Industrial investment sales fell 9.3% QOQ in investors focus on assets with Q4. FY 2020 transactions fell 43.3%, on the absence of REIT transactions. We see positive -9.3 % 20 % 12.0 % long term growth drivers, such long-term growth as investors seek as CBD office buildings with warehouses, data centres and hi-specs space Industrial SGD405mn SGD2.8bn SGD3.3bn income or redevelopment to leverage growing ecommerce and potential, high-specs business technology trends. space, logistics assets and Source: Colliers International. Notes: 1) USD1 to SGD1.3221 as of 31 Dec 2020. 2) 1 sq m = 10.7639 sq ft. 3) Investment sales transactions include: a) all private shophouses. property sales at transaction prices of SGD10 million and above; and b) all successfully awarded state land tenders. 3) All deals mentioned in this report have been widely publicised in the media. 1URA Incentive Scheme. 2CapitaLand Mall Trust acquired CapitaLand Commercial Trust’s six offices and two mixed-use developments. COLLIERS QUARTERLY INVESTMENT | SINGAPORE | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 26 JANUARY 2021 COMMERCIAL, MIXED-USE ASSETS LED INVESTMENT SALES IN FY 2020 In Q4 2020, the Singapore economy contracted The five largest transactions in Q4 2020 by 3.8% YOY, but grew a seasonally-adjusted Yishun Ave 9 (EC)/ CMT-CCT merger 2.1% QOQ. This brings the full year 2020 GDP Tanah Merah Kechil Sandcrawler growth to -5.8%, the worst recession since 6 Office & 2 Mixed- LInk Business Park independence. Nonetheless, 2021 should see a Use Developments Former Mediacorp GLS sites Keppel Bay Tower Caldecott Hill site strong rebound, up 5.6% (Oxford Economics Transacted price (SGD million) Transacted price (SGD million) Transacted price (SGD million) forecast on 18 December), with the virus 10,800 Office GCBA Landed/ Retirement 175.8 373.5/ 249.0 Village Price per sq ft (SGD) contained domestically and vaccines to be made Price per sq ft (SGD) Price per sq ft (SGD) 1,920 – 2,950 Transacted price (SGD million) Transacted price (SGD million) available by Q3 2021. Economists expect both 657.2 576 / 930 on GFA 361 on land manufacturing and service sector growth to gain on NLA 280.9 Price per sq ft (SGD) traction. Price per sq ft (SGD) 1,700 on NLA 374 on land REIT M&A deals drove real estate transaction volumes in 2020. Q4 saw the largest deal in 2020, Snapshot of total investment sales Investment sales volume by sector with CapitaLand Mall Trust acquiring CapitaLand Q4 2020 % Change % Change Commercial Trust’s six offices and two mixed-use Total investment sales (SGD billion) YOY growth % 50 300% (SGD mil) QOQ YOY developments for SGD10.8 (USD8.2) billion in a Residential 1,969.4 92.6% 94.2% 40 29.67 200% merger of equals. Keppel REIT is acquiring Keppel 30 24.72 Industrial 405.4 -9.3% -82.1% 100% Bay Tower for SGD657 (USD500) million. 20 Commercial 8,688.1 228.5% 508.6% 10 0% Residential also saw more activity after a pause in Mixed Use 2,989.2 N.M. N.M. 0 -100% Government Land Sales (GLS) due to COVID, with Shophouses 288.1 380.4% 43.7% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 two sites awarded in Q4. A large development 2007 Hospitality 27.0 N.M. -98.1% site in the Good Class Bungalow Area in Caldecott Total 14,367 242.8% 128.1% Hill Estate was sold for SGD280.9 million. Blackstone is acquiring Sandcrawler, a business Investment sales by sector: Q4 2020 and FY2020 (SGD millions, %) park at one-north for SGD176 (USD133) million. Residential, Industrial, Industrial, 1,969.4, 14% 405.4, 3% 2,297.6, 9% It was a year of two-halves as we see H2 Residential, Shophouses, 5,245.6, 21% investment sales at SGD18.6 billion, making up 288.1, 2% three-quarters of the full year of SGD24.7 billion, Q4 2020: Commercial, FY 2020: 8,688.1, 60% Commercial, signaling strong momentum going into 2021. For SGD14.4bn Shophouses, SGD24.7bn 12,840.2, 52% the second straight year, Singapore was ranked Mixed Use, 467.5, 2% 2,989.2, 21% #1 by ULI and PWC3 for investment prospects in Mixed Use, APAC, reinforcing Singapore’s strong position as a 3,829.2, favourable investment destination. Catalysts in 16% Source: Colliers International, Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), JTC Corporation (JTC), Housing Development Board (HDB). Notes: 1) Information 2021 include more tech companies setting up as of 5 January 2021. 2) Commercial includes office, retail and mixed- office and retail components in a development. Mixed-use refers to properties hubs and a global economic recovery. with two or more types of different uses. Others include properties such as medical centres, car parks, petrol stations, etc. 3) The percentage may not add up 100 due to rounding. 4) N.M. : Not Meaningful. 3 Emerging Trends in Real Estate Asia Pacific 2021. 2 COLLIERS QUARTERLY INVESTMENT | SINGAPORE | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 26 JANUARY 2021 Residential Industrial Residential investment sales in Q4 jumped 92.6% QOQ and 94.2% YOY to Industrial investment sales in Q4 fell 9.3% QOQ and 82.1% YOY to SGD405 SGD1.97 (USD1.49) billion, mainly on the revival of public and private (USD307) million, as ESR REIT’s proposed merger with Sabana REIT fell land sales, including two collective sales. FY 2020 volume fell 23.6% to through, while Q4 2019 was boosted by the SGD1.55 billion Mapletree SGD5.25 (USD3.97) billion on fewer public land sales awarded and luxury Business City II acquisition. The two major industrial deals announced in apartments sold due to COVID delays. 38 GCB sites worth SGD1.01 billion Q4 2020 were the SGD176 million Sandcrawler business park and SGD118 transacted in 2020, compared to 34 GCBs worth SGD1.05 billion in 2019. million former Big Box retail-warehouse, planned to be redeveloped into a business park. FY 2020 industrial investment sales totalled SGD2.30 Snapshot of total residential investment sales (USD1.74) billion , -43.3% YOY, notwithstanding earlier strength in the (SGD million) Private Public % QOQ change warehouse and data centre transactions in the first nine months of 2020. 10,000 300% 8,000 200% Snapshot of total industrial investment sales 6,000 93% 100% (SGD million) Private Public % QOQ change 2,500 2,260 300% 4,000 1,969 0% 1,023 2,000 2,000 1,014 -100% 200% 1,500 0 -200% 100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1,000 447 405 -9%0% 201820182018201820192019201920192020202020202020 500 Source: Colliers International, URA REALIS (as of 5 January 2021) 0 -100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 Commercial & Mixed Use Source: Colliers International, URA REALIS (as of 5 January 2021) Commercial investment sales in Q4 surged 228% QOQ and 509% YOY to SGD8.69 (USD6.57) billion, mainly due to CMT acquiring CCT’s six office Hospitality and two mixed-use developments on their merger. FY 2020 commercial Amber Katong Hotel, reported to have transacted for SGD27 (USD20.4) deals rose 8.8% to SGD12.8 (USD9.71) billion, while FY 2020 mixed use million in Q4, was the only hospitality deal in FY 2020, a far cry from the quadrupled to SGD3.83 (USD2.90) billion, including AXA Tower in Q2 2020. record level of SGD5.7 (USD4.1) billion in 2019. In the longer run, the Snapshot of total commercial investment sales hospitality sector’s fundamentals are underpinned by planned new (SGD million) Private Public % QOQ change attractions and infrastructure projects between 2021 and 2030.