JICA Study on the Turkmenistan March 2010 3. Analysis of Collected Basic Data of Turkmenbashi Port and Review of Port Development Projects 3.1 Outline of Long Term Port Development Plans In this section port development plans proposed by following studies and TMRL’s revision of these plans are summarized. (1) Feasibility Study and Basic Data Survey on the Modernization Project of Turkmenbashi International Seaport, MTLM Korea, 2009 (hereinafter referred as “Modernization Study”) (2) TRACECA Navigation Channel for Turkmenbashi Port, EU/TACIS, 2007 (hereinafter referred as “Channel Study”) 3.1.1 Modernization Study The study was carried out by the consortium headed by Hyein Engineering and Construction (Korea) based on the MOU concluded between the Government of Turkmenistan and Government of Korea. The study was funded by the Ministry of Land Transport and Maritime Affairs of Korea. The final report was submitted to TMRL in July 2009. The objective of the study was to conduct a feasibility study for the modernization project of Turkmenbashi Port, which includes the construction of a cargo terminal, passenger terminal and shipyard, by analyzing and reviewing the basic data such as soil, bathymetry, wave climate, coastal topography. The study included analysis of socio-economic circumstances and review of environmental conditions. The basic port development policies proposed by the Modernization Study are; Creation of international logistics hub, Creation of high efficiency port, Construction of multifunctional port, Improvement of the quality of waterfront and Promotion of ship building industry. In the Modernization Study, cargo traffic forecast was not carried out, and instead, growth scenarios of cargo volume were developed. Scenario 1, 2 and 3 assumed that 5%, 10% and 15% of the rail cargo volume in neighboring countries would be diverted to Caspian shipping cargo through Turkmenbashi Port respectively. Based on this assumption, the cargo volume of Turkmenbashi Port was estimated as shown in Table 3.1.1. Taking the tourism development project (Awaza) into account, passenger traffic was forecasted. Table 3.1.2 shows the result of the estimation. 3 - 1 JICA Study on the Turkmenistan March 2010 Table 3.1.1 Estimated Cargo Volume (unit 1000 tons) 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total Throughput Scenario1 8,409 9,590 12,827 15,883 19,488 (including Okarem and Alaja Port) Scenario2 8,409 9,590 13,446 16,621 20,404 Scenario3 8,409 9,590 14,065 17,379 21,319 General Cargo, Dry Bulk , Scenario1 1,585 1,808 2,920 3,606 4,417 RORO, Rail Ferry (excl. oil) and Containers Scenario2 1,585 1,808 3,539 4,364 5,333 Scenario3 1,585 1,808 4,158 5,122 6,248 Liquid Bulk (incl. Okarem and Alaja) 6,824 7,782 9,907 12,257 15,071 Source: MLTM Note: Since the expression in the original report was not clear, the table was modified by the consultant. Table 3.1.2 Estimated Passenger Traffic (unit 1000 persons) 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 Estimated Passenger Traffic 14.9 34.5 49.6 61.0 90.5 Source: MLTM Based on the above mentioned traffic scenarios, the Modernization Study proposed an infrastructure development plan as shown in Table 3.1.3 and Figure 3.1.1. Although water depth of respective berths is not specified in the final report, a 5000 DWT tanker is assumed expediently as a design vessel of all cargo berths for which the report estimates required berth depth of 7.5 meters. Table 3.1.3 Proposed Infrastructure Development Passenger Ship Terminal quay length 150 m x 2 Container Terminal quay length 520 m area 13 ha General Cargo Terminal quay length 520 m area 28 ha Bulk Cargo Terminal quay length 390 m area 21 ha Ship Yard Park Note: The areas of the terminals are not specified in the Modernization Study. The areas shown in the table are measured from drawings of the report. 3 - 2 JICA Study on the Turkmenistan March 2010 Source: MLTM 2009 Figure 3.1.1 Port Plan Proposed by the Modernization Study The study proposed that the infrastructure development be implemented in the following three stages. According to the proposed investment plan, all of the construction work is planned to be completed in 2019. Phase 1 (target year 2015) Passenger Ship Terminal, Park, Shipyard, General Cargo Terminal (2 berths) Phase 2 (target year 2020) General Cargo Terminal (2 berths), Bulk Cargo Terminal Phase 3 (target year 2025) Container Terminal The estimated construction cost for each phase is shown in Table 3.1.4. Total construction cost including VAT is 633,372,000 USD. Total project cost including design, inspection and miscellaneous expenses is 745 million USD. 3 - 3 JICA Study on the Turkmenistan March 2010 Table 3.1.4 Estimate of Construction Cost (unit 1000USD) Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Ship Yard 75,738 General Cargo Terminal 38,950 Container Terminal 54,903 General Cargo Terminal 38,518 Bulk Cargo Terminal 60,875 Dredging 3,790 Passenger Ship Terminal 10,549 Control Center 2,797 Subsidiary Facilities 8,571 Park 6,749 Dredging 9,009 Architecture 6,447 Dredging 19,756 Subsidiary Facilities 46,964 Related Construction 21,526 Subsidiary Facilities 43,017 Architecture 17,588 VAT 9,524 Architecture 16,505 Related Construction 27,439 Related Construction 66,102 VAT 20,362 VAT 27,693 TOTAL 304,627 TOTAL 223,984 TOTAL 104,761 Total Construction Cost 633,372 Source: MLTM 2009 Table 3.1.5 shows the result of the economic and financial analysis conducted in the Modernization Study. This indicates that economic feasibility of the whole port project (except shipyard construction) is questionable. When only two berths of the general cargo terminal are constructed, economic and financial performance will be improved to some extent, however it is not feasible without a very preferential finance scheme. As for the shipyard, the study evaluated that it would be feasible economically and financially only when “advanced” technology was applied. The study pointed out that the main obstacles were the high construction cost due to severe seismic conditions, difficulty in procurement of construction materials and soft ground condition. The study evaluated that environmental impacts caused by construction and operation would not be significant, however it stressed the importance of countermeasures for pollution caused by construction machinery and container traffic. Table 3.1.5 Results of Economic and Financial Analysis Whole Two Berths Project of General Ship Yard Ship Yard except Ship Cargo (Phase (case1) (case2) Yard 1) B/C 0.75 1.19 0.79 1.82 Economic EIRR 6.85% 12.04% 6.66% 23.30% Analysis NPV(M USD) -120 4 -36 69 FIRR(Real) 1.59% FIRR(Nominal) 0.93% 1.30% 8.84% Financial ROE 0.57% 7.91% Analysis Min DSCR 0.73 0.23 0.18 0.76 Min Cum DSCR 1 0.23 0.18 2.06 Source: MLTM 2009 Case1 denotes the ship yards of which the productivity is at standard level of Caspian region. The productivity of Case2 is at the level of advanced nations such like Korea. 3.1.2 Channel Study The study was carried out as a part of the TRACECA programme which was initiated by the European Commission aiming at improvement of the transport corridor. The study considered one 3 - 4 JICA Study on the Turkmenistan March 2010 of the key elements in this transport chain, namely, the Navigational Channel in Turkmenbashi Port. The purpose of the project was to ensure safe and reliable access to Turkmenbashi Port according to international standards for all ships operating on the Caspian Sea, and to protect the environment. The concrete activities undertaken in the study were: ¾ Identification of alternatives for the access channel ¾ Review of existing channel measurement and existing dredging facilities ¾ Survey of existing dredging facilities ¾ Hydrographical survey and environmental testing ¾ Elaboration of a Dredging plan (capital and maintenance) ¾ Training ¾ Environmental Impact Assessment ¾ Economic Cost-Benefit Analysis and finance The study developed scenarios for the future traffic handled at Turkmenbashi Port. Based on the economic growth scenarios and assumptions on transport demand elasticities, summarized results are depicted in the table and the graphs below. Table 3.1.6 Average annual growth rates of Ferry transport, 2006 – 2040 Source: TACIS 2007 Source: TACIS 2007 Figure 3.1.2 Scenarios for ferry traffic at Turkmenbashi Port 3 - 5 JICA Study on the Turkmenistan March 2010 Source: TACIS 2007 Figure 3.1.3 Scenarios for Oil, Gas, Products (OGP) traffic at Turkmenbashi Port Source: TACIS 2007 Figure 3.1.4 Scenarios for dry cargo traffic at Turkmenbashi Port The study assessed present and expected size of vessels calling at Turkmenbashi Port. As a result of the assessment, a clear evolution towards increased vessel capacity was noted especially for the tankers. A set of vessels for which the channel would be designed was identified. The principal characteristics of these vessels are presented in Table 3.1.7. Table 3.1.7 Overview specifications of the design vessels Source: TACIS 2007 3 - 6 JICA Study on the Turkmenistan March 2010 The study identified measures to be taken in order to bring the access channel to Turkmenbashi in compliance with international standards. The proposed source for such international standards was the publication “Approach Channels: A guide to design”, final report of the Joint PIANC - IAPH Working Group in cooperation with IMPA and IALA. The Channel Study proposed that the present basic alignment of the North Channel be maintained as shown in Figure 3.1.5. Based on the characteristics of the design vessels determined in the traffic forecast, and on the prevailing conditions on the site, the required cross section for the channel was determined in accordance with international standards.