CTCN - City Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Identification of Ecosystem based Adaptation Interventions- Lao PDR Final Report December 2017 This report has been prepared under the DHI Business Management System certified by Bureau Veritas to comply with ISO 9001 (Quality Management) Approved by 11-01-2018 X Approved by Signed by: Henrik Garsdal 11819832 ctcn laos draft final report_v3.docx / HEG/JDA / 2017-12-15 CTCN - City Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Identification of Ecosystem based Adaptation Interventions- Lao PDR Final Report Prepared for CTCN Represented by Ms. Agathe Laure Bamboo bridge, Luang Prabang Project manager Henrik Garsdal Quality supervisor Jesper Goodley Dannisøe Project number 11819832 Approval date December 15th Revision 0.1 Classification Restricted DHI • Agern Allé 5 • • DK-2970 Hørsholm • Denmark Telephone: +45 4516 9200 • Telefax: +45 4516 9292 • [email protected] • www.dhigroup.com 11819832 ctcn laos draft final report_v3.docx / HEG/JDA / 2017-12-15 CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Climate change assessment for 6 cities ........................................................................................ 8 1.2 Ecosystem services assessment ................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Vulnerability assessment ............................................................................................................... 9 1.4 Site selection .................................................................................................................................. 9 1.5 Identification of priority ecosystem based adaptation options ..................................................... 10 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 11 3 Methods and approach ............................................................................................. 14 3.1 Preliminary surveys on ecosystem services ................................................................................ 14 3.2 Ecosystem Services Assessment ................................................................................................ 15 3.3 Climate Change impacts .............................................................................................................. 15 3.4 Vulnerability assessment ............................................................................................................. 15 3.4.1 Hazard assessment and mapping ............................................................................................... 16 3.4.2 Land Cover Classification analysis .............................................................................................. 17 3.4.3 Sensitivity assessment ................................................................................................................. 18 3.4.4 Vulnerability assessment and mapping ....................................................................................... 19 3.5 Ecosystems-based adaptation interventions ............................................................................... 20 4 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts (Activity 1) .............................................. 23 4.1 Collection and harmonization of key data sets ............................................................................ 23 4.1.1 Rainfall data ................................................................................................................................. 23 4.1.2 Temperature data......................................................................................................................... 25 4.1.3 Evaporation data .......................................................................................................................... 26 4.1.4 Climate model projections ............................................................................................................ 26 4.2 Assessment of climate change at city and catchment level ........................................................ 28 4.2.1 Statistical post-processing ........................................................................................................... 28 4.3 Results ......................................................................................................................................... 29 4.3.1 Rainfall ......................................................................................................................................... 29 4.3.2 Temperature ................................................................................................................................. 35 4.3.3 Summary of climate change projections ...................................................................................... 40 5 Site selection ............................................................................................................. 41 6 Ecosystem Services Assessment (Activity 2) ......................................................... 42 6.1 Identification of Ecosystem Service Indicators ............................................................................ 42 6.2 Identification and prioritization of ecosystem services in the six cities ........................................ 45 7 Vulnerability Assessment (Activity 3) ...................................................................... 46 7.1 Vientiane – Xaythany District ....................................................................................................... 46 7.1.1 Hazard mapping – Vientiane ........................................................................................................ 47 7.1.2 Sensitivity mapping – Vientiane ................................................................................................... 47 7.1.3 Vulnerability mapping – Vientiane................................................................................................ 48 7.2 Thakek (Khammouan) ................................................................................................................. 49 7.2.1 Hazard mapping – Thakek ........................................................................................................... 49 i 7.2.2 Sensitivity mapping – Thakek ...................................................................................................... 50 7.2.3 Vulnerability mapping – Thakek ................................................................................................... 50 7.3 Savannakhet / Kaysome Phomvihane ......................................................................................... 52 7.3.1 Hazard mapping – Kaysome Phomvihane .................................................................................. 52 7.3.2 Sensitivity mapping – Kaysome Phomvihane .............................................................................. 53 7.3.3 Vulnerability mapping – Kaysome Phomvihane .......................................................................... 55 7.4 Pakse ........................................................................................................................................... 56 7.4.1 Hazard mapping – Pakse ............................................................................................................ 56 7.4.2 Sensitivity mapping – Pakse ........................................................................................................ 58 7.4.3 Vulnerability mapping – Pakse .................................................................................................... 59 7.5 Paksan (Bolikhamaxy) ................................................................................................................. 61 7.5.1 Hazard mapping - Paksan ........................................................................................................... 61 7.5.2 Sensitivity mapping - Paksan ....................................................................................................... 62 7.5.3 Vulnerability mapping - Paksan ................................................................................................... 62 7.6 Luang Prabang ............................................................................................................................ 64 7.6.1 Hazard mapping – Luang Prabang .............................................................................................. 64 7.6.2 Sensitivity mapping – Luang Prabang ......................................................................................... 65 7.6.3 Vulnerability mapping – Luang Prabang ...................................................................................... 66 8 Identification, prioritization and initial design of Ecosystem Based Adaptation options (Activity 4) ................................................................................ 69 8.1 Identification of adaptation options in the six cities ...................................................................... 69 8.1.1 Consultation and review of the findings ....................................................................................... 69 8.1.2 Prioritizing the adaptation options ................................................................................................ 70 9 Input to GCF Project documents (Activity 5) .........................................................