LAKE TOBA BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY, MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS, AND INVESTMENT NEEDS MARKET ANALYSIS AND DEMAND ASSESSMENTS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED TOURISM DESTINATIONS ACROSS INDONESIA World Bank Selection #1223583 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS PREPARED BY: FOR: WITH SUPPORT FROM: TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................. iii TABLE OF FIGURES .................................................................................................. vi INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY ............................................................................... 4 1. DESTINATION CHARACTERISTICS ........................................................................ 5 1.1 GEOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 CLIMATE ................................................................................................................................................. 7 2. DESTINATION DEFINITION ...................................................................................... 8 2.1 KEY ATTRACTIONS & TOURISM AREAS .................................................................................... 8 2.2 CONCLUSIONS ON ATTRACTIONS ......................................................................................... 15 3. VISITOR ARRIVALS & DEMOGRAPHICS ............................................................... 16 3.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 16 3.2 DAY VISITORS & VISITORS STAYING WITH FRIENDS & RELATIVES .............................. 16 3.3 VISITORS IN COMMERCIAL ACCOMMODATION ................................................................ 17 3.4 FOREIGN MARKET AWARENESS & VISITOR SENTIMENT ................................................. 21 3.5 TOURISM PROMOTION / DESTINATION MARKETING ..................................................... 23 3.6 CONCLUSIONS ON VISITOR ARRIVALS & DEMOGRAPHICS .......................................... 23 4. ACCESSIBILITY HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................. 24 4.1 EXISTING MODE OF TRAVEL AND VISITOR’S MOVEMENT ............................................. 24 5. HOTEL & LODGING OPTIONS (AMENITIES) ....................................................... 27 5.1 VOLUME OF ROOMS ....................................................................................................................... 27 5.2 PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES .......................................................................................................... 28 5.3 HOTEL FACILITIES ............................................................................................................................. 29 6. SMES: SUPPORTING TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES) ................. 32 6.1 INDEPENDENT FOOD & BEVERAGE .......................................................................................... 32 6.2 RECREATIONAL CRUISES............................................................................................................... 32 6.3 TRAVEL AGENCIES & TOUR SERVICES ..................................................................................... 32 6.4 TRANSPORT PROVIDERS ............................................................................................................... 33 6.5 TOURISM SERVICE PROVIDERS .................................................................................................... 33 6.6 OTHER SERVICE PROVIDERS ........................................................................................................ 33 6.7 CONCLUSIONS ON SMES SUPPORTING TOURISM ACTIVITIES ..................................... 33 7. INVESTMENT ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 34 7.1 REALISED FDI & DDI IN HOTELS & RESTAURANTS ............................................................. 34 7.2 PLANNED DDI & FDI IN HOTELS & RESTAURANTS ............................................................ 34 7.3 KEY PLAYERS / INVESTORS ............................................................................................................ 34 7.4 INVESTMENT SENTIMENT: DOMESTIC & FOREIGN INVESTORS .................................... 35 7.5 WHERE IS THE DESTINATION ON THE INVESTMENT CYCLE ........................................ 36 7.6 CONCLUSIONS ON INVESTMENT ............................................................................................. 36 8. SKILLS ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................ 37 8.1 WHAT SKILLS EXIST ......................................................................................................................... 37 8.2 SKILLS GAPS ......................................................................................................................................... 37 8.3 TRAINING SCHOOLS ...................................................................................................................... 37 DESTINATION SWOT & VISION .......................................................................... 39 9. DESTINATION SWOT ............................................................................................... 40 9.1 STRENGTHS ......................................................................................................................................... 40 9.2 WEAKNESSES ...................................................................................................................................... 40 9.3 OPPORTUNITIES ................................................................................................................................ 40 9.4 THREATS ............................................................................................................................................... 41 10. DESTINATION VISION STATEMENT ................................................................. 42 10.1 RECOMMENDED DESTINATION VISION ............................................................................. 43 MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS ........................................................................... 44 11. FUTURE MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS............................................................. 45 11.1 INTRODUCTION: METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................... 45 11.2 PRIORITY MARKETS FOR THE DESTINATION ................................................................... 45 11.3 BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO .............................................................................................. 47 11.4 BEST CASE SCENARIO ................................................................................................................. 51 11.5 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE BEST CASE SCENARIO .................................................... 56 11.6 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS IN CHARTS ....................................................................... 58 INVESTMENT NEEDS ............................................................................................... 61 12. AMENITIES: KEY RECOMMENDATION .............................................................. 62 12.1 HOTELS & LODGING OPTIONS .............................................................................................. 62 12.2 FORECASTING FUTURE LODGING SUPPLY NEEDS ........................................................ 64 12.3 SUPPORTING TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES) ............................................ 65 13. STAFF REQUIRED & SKILLS NEEDED ................................................................ 67 13.1 ACCOMMODATION STAFF REQUIRED ............................................................................... 67 13.2 ADDITIONAL STAFF REQUIRED ............................................................................................. 68 13.3 CONCLUSIONS ON STAFF ....................................................................................................... 71 14. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE BASELINE & NEEDS .................................. 72 BASELINE ........................................................................................................................................................... 72 14.1 ROAD TRANSPORT ..................................................................................................................... 72 14.2 RAILWAY .......................................................................................................................................... 77 14.3 AIR ....................................................................................................................................................... 80 14.4 SEA TRANSPORT ........................................................................................................................... 86 14.5 LAKE TRANSPORT ........................................................................................................................ 89 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS .................................................................