PATTERNS OF FAILURE: RETHINKING CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM - WHAT WENT WRONG? By ROGER Q. AUSTIN III A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2015 © 2015 Roger Q. Austin III To my parents Roger and Sally Austin ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am very grateful to everyone whose assistance has made the completion of this dissertation possible. It would not have been possible without the help and support of my parents, family, friends, colleagues and mentors. I especially want to thank the dedicated members of my dissertation committee who hung in there with me through thick and thin: Chairman Daniel A. Smith, Co-Chair Lawrence C. Dodd, Beth Rosenson, Richard Scher and David Colburn. I feel honored to have had such a distinguished committee – your counsel and advice was needed as much as it was appreciated. I would also like to thank everyone in the Political Science Department – you have all been very supportive over the years while I have meandered through this process while trying to also earn a living – your patience and encouragement are much appreciated. At the risk of omitting anyone, special thanks go to Dr. Steve Craig, Sue Lawless- Yanchisin, Pat Root and Debbie Wallen. Finally, and once again, at the risk of omitting someone, I would like to thank my friends, far too many to name individually, but you know who you are. Special thanks goes to my close friends and confidants and who never stopped encouraging me to finish this damn thing – Ryan Garcia, Kevin Kuchenbaur, Liz Stinson, Will Foster, Barry Edwards, my editor-in-chief Kyle Fitzpatrick and last but certainly not least, my biggest cheerleader, Phyllis Batchelder. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 8 ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER 1 IDENTIFYING THE PATTERNS OF FAILURE ....................................................... 11 Research Question ................................................................................................. 11 Campaign Finance Reform is a Critical and Timely Issue....................................... 17 The Premises and Promises of Campaign Finance Reform ................................... 32 Defining Failure ....................................................................................................... 34 Preview of Chapters................................................................................................ 37 2 INTELLECTUAL PATTERNS OF FAILURE ........................................................... 43 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 43 The Premises and Promises of Campaign Finance Reform ................................... 46 The Categories of Failure ....................................................................................... 49 Enforcement/Prohibition ................................................................................... 54 Transparency/Publicity ..................................................................................... 58 Fungibility ......................................................................................................... 61 The Academic Literature ......................................................................................... 62 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 75 3 EMPIRICAL PATTERNS OF FAILURE .................................................................. 79 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 79 Brief History of Campaign Finance Reform ............................................................. 81 Categories of Analysis of Empirical Failures of Execution ...................................... 85 Execution Failure #1 – Enforcement ....................................................................... 87 The Tillman Act of 1907 ................................................................................... 87 The Publicity Acts of 1910 and 1911 ................................................................ 89 The Federal Corrupt Practices Act of 1925 ...................................................... 90 The Hatch Act of 1940 ...................................................................................... 92 The Smith-Connally Act of 1943 ....................................................................... 95 The Federal Election Campaign Acts of 1971 and 1974 .................................. 99 Independent Expenditures ....................................................................... 105 Soft money ............................................................................................... 105 Bundling ................................................................................................... 106 Federal Election Commission .................................................................. 107 The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA) .................................. 111 5 Execution Failure #2 – Fungibility ......................................................................... 115 The Tillman Act of 1907 ................................................................................. 116 The Publicity Acts of 1910 and 1911 .............................................................. 116 The Federal Corrupt Practices Act of 1925 .................................................... 117 The Hatch Act of 1940 .................................................................................... 117 The Smith-Connally Act of 1943 ..................................................................... 120 The Federal Election Campaign Acts of 1971 and 1974 (FECA) ................... 121 Independent Expenditures ....................................................................... 122 Soft Money ............................................................................................... 122 Bundling ................................................................................................... 123 Federal Election Commission .................................................................. 124 PACs with parents ................................................................................... 124 Polling ...................................................................................................... 125 The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 ............................................... 125 Execution Failure #3 - Transparency .................................................................... 127 The Tillman Act of 1907 ................................................................................. 129 The Publicity Acts of 1910 and 1911 .............................................................. 130 The Federal Corrupt Practices Act of 1925 .................................................... 131 The Hatch Act of 1940 .................................................................................... 133 The Smith-Connally Act of 1943 ..................................................................... 133 The Federal Election Campaign Acts of 1971 and 1974 (FECA) ................... 134 Independent Expenditures ....................................................................... 135 Soft Money ............................................................................................... 136 Bundling ................................................................................................... 136 Federal Election Commission .................................................................. 136 PACs with parents ................................................................................... 137 The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA) .................................. 137 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 138 4 UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES AND THE THEORETICAL PATTERNS OF FAILURE ............................................................................................................... 144 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 144 Path Dependency ................................................................................................. 146 The Supreme Court .............................................................................................. 149 Unintended Consequences Of The Patterns of Failure ........................................ 157 The Tillman Act .............................................................................................. 158 The Publicity Acts of 1910-1911 ..................................................................... 159 The Federal Corrupt Practices Act of 1925 .................................................... 159 The Hatch Act of 1940 .................................................................................... 159 The Smith-Connally Act of 1943 ....................................................................